What causes failure to apply the Pigeonhole Principle in simple reasoning problems?

The Pigeonhole Principle states that if n items are sorted into m categories and if n > m, then at least one category must contain more than one item. For instance, if 22 pigeons are put into 17 pigeonholes, at least one pigeonhole must contain more than one pigeon. This principle seems intuitive, yet when told about a city with 220,000 inhabitants none of whom has more than 170,000 hairs on their head, many people think that it is merely likely that two inhabitants have the exact same number of hair. This failure to apply the Pigeonhole Principle might be due to the large numbers used, or to the cardinal rather than nominal presentation of these numbers. We show that performance improved both when the numbers are presented nominally, and when they are small, albeit less so. We discuss potential interpretations of these results in terms of intuition and reasoning.     

调节聚焦对期限效果的影响

结合调节聚焦探讨了期限的时长、结果框架及效价对期限效果的影响。结果表明,防御聚焦个体认为期限的阻碍效果更大,且调节聚焦对前述变量与期限效果的关系具有调节作用:4分钟期限中防御聚焦组认为期限的阻碍效果更大,8分钟期限中则相反,12和16分钟期限中均无显著差异;收益框架下促进聚焦组认为期限对任务表现的阻碍作用更大,促进聚焦组在正效价条件下认为收益框架下期限对策略使用的阻碍作用更大,但在负效价条件下则相反。     

不同乐观水平大学生的框架效应研究

采用乐观人格倾向问卷筛选乐观水平低组（96名）和高组（99名）大学生,探讨不同乐观水平大学生在生命救助、奖学金申请、娱乐金钱3种决策任务领域上的框架效应及其在性别、专业的特点。结果发现：（1）不同乐观水平大学生在不同决策任务领域上的框架效应特点不同,乐观水平低组和高组大学生在生命救助问题上表现为偏向于风险的单向框架效应,乐观水平高组大学生在娱乐金钱问题上倾向于风险寻求;（2）乐观水平高的男大学生在3种决策任务领域上均倾向于风险寻求,低乐观水平的女大学生在生命救助问题上表现为偏向于风险的单向框架效应;（3）     

框架效应发生机制的辨优启发加工

以亚洲疾病问题为代表的框架效应是描述性决策理论违背规范性理论的经典＂异像＂,而辨优启发式是行为决策理论的一大新进展。该研究探讨了辨优启发式对框架效应的解释过程。以经营风险决策为情境,以有管理经验的被试为样本,实验结果发现选择理由越少的情景其反应时越短、相应的优势项的选择比例也越高,这一结果有效地支持了辨优启发作为过程模型的次序规则、停规则和裁决规则存在的客观依据,也间接证实了辨优启发式对框架效应的解释力。     

人非理性且难教化?论支持自由家长主义的证据

基于心理学的研究, 自由家长主义者认为人们的思维有个体难以克服的、根深蒂固的系统性缺陷, 并难以通过教育来避免和消除, 因此主张因势利导, 仰仗外部专家的“助推”把人们的行为引导到正确方向。然而, 从生态理性的角度看, 人们依照自由家长主义者所谓的认知偏差做出的选择未必导致糟糕的结果, 而依照自由家长主义者所推崇的理性方法做出的选择也未必导致理想的结果。本文分析了自由家长主义者用来支持助推的证据后发现：(1)它们源于一些研究者对“何为理性”的狭隘定义, 误解了人类理性的本质; (2)它们对研究结果进行了选择性的报告, 忽视了与这些证据相反的证据。通过这些分析, 我们认为“人非理性且难教化”这一自由家长主义者的论断过于武断并有失偏颇。投入教育, 教会人们如何精明老练地处理风险不仅是可行的, 而且是替代助推的一个更为持久有效的解决方案。     

Much ado about nothing: The zero effect in life‐saving decisions

Zero is a special value in our daily lives, and previous research on how zero values affect decision making leaves many questions to be explored. The present research examined the zero effect in life‐saving decisions and found that people expressed strong preferences for options offering a possibility that no one will die, even when the expected loss was relatively high. The prominence effect (the notion that the option with possibly zero deaths is easy to defend and justify) was proposed as one possible explanation. Furthermore, we also found that the zero effect in these life‐saving decisions occurs only in loss framing rather than gain framing. We discuss the relationships between the zero effect, framing, and evaluation mode in life saving and other domains.     

框架效应的应用研究及其应用技巧

个体的决策及偏好常会因信息的表达方式而变, 研究者将这种违背期望效用理论不变性的现象称之为“框架效应”。框架效应体现了人类非理性决策的普遍性, 也为合理利用人类的决策特点以干预其决策行为提供了重要契机。本文总结了框架效应在健康行为、市场营销及环保领域中的应用研究, 着重分析了数量信息的表达技巧, 如风险信息的呈现、数量单位的选择以及图形的物理属性设计, 旨在探讨如何在实践过程中通过变化信息呈现方式以实现对人类决策行为的重要影响。     

The effects of health frame and target relevance in appearance social comparisons

Social comparison powerfully influences on appearance self‐evaluations, but previous research has not examined the combined impact of target frame and relevance on appearance comparison outcomes. The present study examined the effect of target relevance and health frame in body‐ideal images on self‐evaluations in a mixed‐gender university‐based sample from the United States (N = 176; 58% female). Participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions in which they viewed a body‐ideal image of a same‐sex target that varied in target relevance (peer or model) and health frame (extreme behaviors described as being healthy or unhealthy). We did not find evidence that comparisons with models or peers are different in their effects. And, consistent with hypotheses, the health frame of a comparison target’s eating and exercise behaviors influenced how participants perceived themselves and their health. Participants were more likely to take health advice from the target described as healthy, and felt better about their own health when comparing to healthy targets. We also found gender differences such that men were more satisfied with their physical health but women were more satisfied with their appearance. Overall, this research supports the importance of addressing peer comparisons and health literacy in body image interventions, which has long‐term implications for the prevention of eating and exercise pathology.     

Framing, Uncertainty, and Hostile Communications in a Crisis Experiment

During times of crisis, do cognitive processes shape leaders’ procurement decisions in predictable ways? Drawing on psychological literature, we propose four factors that may have a substantial influence on how much money leaders engaged in ongoing disputes allocate to their military: (1) striving for superiority versus striving for parity in military resources; (2) uncertainty regarding the characteristics of weapons systems; (3) ambiguity regarding the overall capacities of weapons systems; and (4) the tone of messages that adversaries send to one another. The effects of these factors are investigated using a laboratory simulation that combines both experimental and quasi‐experimental elements. The results indicate that striving for superiority has a significant effect on defense spending, as does the tone of an opponent’s message. By way of contrast, neither uncertainty nor ambiguity exerts a statistically discernable impact on the level of defense spending.