贝叶斯统计方法的应用与现状

贝叶斯统计方法是心理学数据分析的热门方法。研究全面论述贝叶斯方法在心理学领域的应用与方向。现阶段贝叶斯方法以模拟研究为主,应用方向为心理学研究常用的项目反应理论、认知诊断、计算机自适应、结构方程模型。同时,评述发现贝叶斯方法正逐步被国内心理学研究者所接受。最后,文章讨论了当下贝叶斯统计在心理学研究中应用的局限性及可能的原因,建议统计学者开发界面友好的贝叶斯软件,并在心理学课程中加入贝叶斯知识。     

权力感对道德判断的影响及其理论解释:基于CNI模型的视角

权力感指个体对控制他人和自身的能力的感知。现有权力对道德判断的影响研究主要使用传统两难困境范式,围绕权力感影响主体道德判断的功利论倾向与道义论倾向展开,且研究观点尚未达成共识。由于传统两难困境范式的局限性,研究者开发了道德判断CNI模型探究权力感对道德判断的影响,该模型为两者之间的关系提供了新的解释路径。未来研究可关注CNI模型视角下不同类型权力感对道德判断的影响以及探讨特质性权力感与情境性权力感对个体道德判断差异的联合作用。     

Prosthesis embodiment and attenuation of prosthetic touch in upper limb amputees – A proof-of-concept study

Sensory attenuation of self-touch, that is, the perceptual reduction of self-generated tactile stimuli, is considered a neurocognitive basis for self-other distinction. However, whether this effect can also be found in upper limb amputees using a prosthesis is unknown. Thirteen participants were asked to touch their foot sole with a) their intact hand (self-touch), b) their prosthesis (prosthesis-touch), or c) let it be touched by another person (other-touch). Intensity of touch was assessed with a questionnaire. In addition, prosthesis embodiment was assessed in nine participants. Self-touch as well as prosthesis-touch was characterized by significant perceptual attenuation compared to other-touch, while self- and prosthesis-touch did not differ. The more embodied the prosthesis was, the more similar was its elicited touch perception to actual self-touch. These findings – although preliminary – suggest that perceptually embodied prostheses can be represented as an actual limb by the users’ sensorimotor system.     

Visual perspective as a two-dimensional construct in episodic future thought

Visual perspective (first-person vs. third-person) is a salient characteristic of memory and mental imagery with important cognitive and behavioural consequences. Most work on visual perspective treats it as a unidimensional construct. However, third-person perspective can have opposite effects on emotion and motivation, sometimes intensifying these and other times acting as a distancing mechanism, as in PTSD. For this reason among others, we propose that visual perspective in memory and mental imagery is best understood as varying along two dimensions: first, the degree to which first-person perspective predominates in the episodic imagery, and second, the degree to which the self is visually salient from a third-person perspective. We show that, in episodic future thinking, these are anticorrelated but non-redundant. These results further our basic understanding of the potent but divergent effects visual perspective has on emotion and motivation, both in everyday life and in psychiatric conditions.     

Exploration of the effects of task-related fatigue on eye-motion features and its value in improving driver fatigue-related technology

Mental fatigue has been lacked attention in developing eye-tracking fatigue detection system for drivers. However, it has great influence on eye movement which could account for the poor validity of current fatigue detectors only focusing on sleep-related fatigue. This work sought to investigate the influence of two types of task-related mental fatigue on eye movement by examining 8 saccade-based, 3 blink-based, and 1 pupil-based metrics. We propose that two types of task-related fatigue caused by cognitive overload and prolonged underload will induce different physiological responses to eye-motion features. Twenty participants completed a vigilance task before and after a 1-h driving with a secondary task in a virtual simulation environment, while forty participants, divided equally into two groups, finished the same task before and after a 1-h and 1.5-h monotonous driving. T-test was applied to analyse the eye-motion, subjective and vigilance data during vigilance task. We found that overload driving made drivers vigilance ability decrease. The eye metrics showed different changes in underload and overload scenario. The blink duration, the mean velocity of saccade and saccade duration increased after 1-h overload driving, while the pupil diameter decreased. However, none of those changes were observed in 1.5-h underload driving, but saccade duration had a significant increase. The fatigue response to heavy demands over short periods of driving is different from the lighter demands over long periods in terms of eye-motion metrics. Considering mental fatigue in designing an eye-tracking fatigue detection system could possibly improve its accuracy.     

Safety of micro-mobility: Riders’ psychological factors and risky behaviors of cargo TTWs in China

Cargo two- or three-wheeled vehicles (TTWs), as a new form of micro-mobility, have become a popular mode of urban cargo transportation in China. Cargo TTW riders’ psychological factors and risky behaviors lead to a number of accidents. A questionnaire is designed by comprehensively considering these factors and behaviors of cargo TTW riders that includes eleven risk factors to quantitatively analyze the risky behaviors based on structural equation modeling (SEM). One thousand three hundred nineteen participants reported using cargo TTWs on a questionnaire distributed across the country. The characteristics of riding behavior data are analyzed to verify the three-layer risk theoretical framework of “Psychological factors (Personality traits/specific factors) - Psychological acceptability of risks (confidence/perception/attitude) - Risky behaviors”. The results show that anger has a strong direct effect on riding violations, while normlessness and altruism have a direct effect on riding errors. Workload has a weak but direct effect on risky behaviors, and riding feedback has a weak and mixed effect. In addition, high-risk groups are identified by analysis of variance (ANOVA) with rider population attributes. These quantitative analyses can help guide safety countermeasures to mitigate accidents involving cargo TTWs.     

Trust and intention to use autonomous vehicles: Manufacturer focus and passenger control

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) research has focused on public acceptance of and intention to use AVs, with trust emerging as important to these variables. Research on AV trust has centered on trust in vehicle performance. However, trust evaluation may include AV manufacturers and developers, and regulation pertaining to AVs; thus, we expand our measurement of trust to include beliefs based on manufacturers and regulation. In this experiment, we manipulate information regarding manufacturer focus (i.e., an emphasis on standards, regulations, and research (SRR) versus speed to market) to determine its effect on trust. When information focused on SRR, we found higher levels of trust in AV performance and in manufacturers, compared to when it focused on speed to market. In addition, information regarding passenger control (i.e., the ability to take over for the vehicle and to determine privacy settings) was manipulated to yield either high or low passenger control conditions. Behavioral Intention (BI) to use AVs was lowest when speed to market was emphasized and when passenger control was low. Furthermore, trust was tested as a mediator between perceived risk and BI. Trust in AV performance partially mediated the relationship between perceived AV performance risk and BI. In addition, trust in AV regulation partially mediated the relationship between AV privacy/security risk and BI. Researchers should continue to examine trust beyond the AV itself to encompass trust in manufacturers and regulations. Those designing and marketing AVs should carefully consider decisions that influence manufacturer/developer reputation and passenger control due to their effect on intention to use AVs.     

Correlations of multiple rider behaviors with self-reported attitudes,perspectives on traffic rule strictness and social desirability

Powered Two-Wheeler (PTW) riders constitute a very vulnerable group of road users, while riding a PTW is considerably more dangerous than using any other motor vehicle. Behavioral issues have been identified major moderating factors to PTW crashes, as riders display great variability in their attitudes towards road safety. Τhe aim of this paper is to present a thorough, overarching structure of relationships correlating various unsafe stated PTW rider behaviors (riding after alcohol consumption, speeding, helmet use and texting) with several self-reported attitude parameters and factors regarding rider perspectives on traffic rule strictness and social desirability. A structural equation model (SEM) was developed using data from the ESRA2 survey, which provided a broad sample encompassing 5,958 respondent riders from 32 countries. Numerous statistical relationships were discovered and quantified correlating the four examined unsafe rider behaviors with eight latent unobserved variables. All covariances between unsafe behaviors were found to be positive and statistically significant, indicating that a rider who will engage more frequently in every single one of the four examined unsafe riding behaviors is more likely to also engage in all the others as well.     

Evaluating driver comprehension of the roadway environment to retain accountability of safety during driving automation

Driver comprehension is a substantial component of situation awareness that involves the ability of an individual to understand the significance of an object, traffic sign, or hazard while driving. An increase in crashes related to autonomous driving systems has raised a concern regarding the safety of other roadway users due to the diminishing accountability resulting from a general lack of understanding of the limitations or disregard of the safety protocols by users. To keep drivers vigilant when engaged in partial automated systems, a methodology to monitor real-time driver comprehension was proposed. A driving simulator study consisting of 90 participants, equally split between males and females, was executed to establish driver comprehension in six different variations of driving difficulty. Joint probability density functions were created by considering percent time spent gazing, answers to probe questions, and driving performance. Based on these density functions, five levels of comprehension were devised and assigned thresholds. Overall, as task difficulty increased, a non-linear deterioration in driving speed along with an increase in total gaze duration was observed before comprehension was attained. A two-step validation protocol was also proposed to ensure similar levels of comprehension to non-automated driving from the human driver, when engaged in early forms of automation. The proposed real-time driver comprehension monitoring constitutes a first step toward developing a methodology to reinstate the accountability of safety of other roadway users when engaged in driver-in-the-loop automation systems.     

Analysing the influence of attitude and habit on bicycle commuting

New transport trends have emerged in developing countries to promote bicycling due to its individual and societal benefits. Although bicycle infrastructure provision has been one of the most utilised strategies to encourage bicycling, it has had a limited immediate impact on the bicycling modal share. Published research indicates the need to incorporate the psychosocial dimension to understand commuters' transport behaviour and explain why bicycling infrastructure usage is lower than expected. This study highlights the processes behind bicycle mode choice decisions, explicitly incorporating pro-bicycle attitudes and habits, while also considering the influence of socioeconomic, bicycle facilities and bicycling experience variables on shaping that attitude. For this purpose, an online survey was designed and sent to students, faculty members and staff of two Chilean universities to collect ad-hoc data. The modelling used an approach based on an integrated choice and latent variable model. The main findings are: attitude in itself is a relevant construct to explain behaviour; bicycling infrastructure contribute to explain bicycle choice but only indirectly through attitude; socioeconomic characteristics, bicycling familiarity and practical issues have both a direct effect on bicycle choice decision and an indirect one by fostering pro-bicycling attitudes. Additionally, results show that the explicit inclusion of habit reduces the contribution of pro-bicycle attitude in explaining bicycle choice. This might be due to interaction and reinforcement between habit and attitude.