Robust inference with binary data

In this paper robustness properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and several robust estimators for the logistic regression model when the responses are binary are analysed. It is found that the MLE and the classical Rao's score test can be misleading in the presence of model misspecification which in the context of logistic regression means either misclassification's errors in the responses, or extreme data points in the design space. A general framework for robust estimation and testing is presented and a robust estimator as well as a robust testing procedure are presented. It is shown that they are less influenced by model misspecifications than their classical counterparts. They are finally applied to the analysis of binary data from a study on breastfeeding.The author is partially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. She would like to thank Rand Wilcox, Eva Cantoni and Elvezio Ronchetti for their helpful comments on earlier versions of the paper, as well as Stephane Heritier for providing the routine to compute the OBRE.     

Productive conflict in group decision making: genuine and contrived dissent as strategies to counteract biased information seeking

Decision-making groups in organizations are often expected to function as a “think tank” and to perform “reality testing” to detect the best alternative. A biased search for information supporting the group's favored alternative impairs a group's ability to fulfill these requirements. In a two-factorial experiment with 201 employees and managers from various economic and public organizations, genuine and contrived dissent were investigated as counterstrategies to biased information seeking. Genuine dissent was manipulated by forming three-person groups whose members either all favored the same alternative individually (homogeneous groups) or consisted of a minority and a majority faction with regard to their favored alternative (heterogeneous groups). Contrived dissent was varied by the use or nonuse of the “devil's advocacy” technique. The results demonstrate that heterogeneity was more effective in preventing a confirmatory information-seeking bias than devil's advocacy was. Confidence was identified as an important mediator. Implications for the design of interventions aimed at facilitating reality testing in group decision making are discussed.     

Which statistical formats facilitate what decisions? The perception and influence of different statistical information formats

Research suggesting both a superiority of frequencies over single‐event probabilities and of smaller reference classes over very large reference classes have utilized tasks that vary in computational complexity. The present research sought to simply and directly evaluate if—apart from simplifying statistical inference tasks—frequencies and small reference classes are clearer than other formats. After eliminating possible computational confounds, simple frequencies (based on small reference classes, e.g. 1/3) and to some extent relative frequencies (percentages, e.g. 33%) were perceived as clearer than absolute frequencies (based on very large reference classes, e.g. 90 million Americans) and single‐event probabilities (e.g. 0.33). Concurrently, these different formats were evaluated in terms of their relative influence. Absolute frequencies were relatively more persuasive for smaller magnitudes (e.g. 2.7 million) but less persuasive for larger magnitudes (e.g. 267 million), as compared to analogous presentations. Single‐event probabilities were judged to minimize the significance of information. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

《易经》的心理思想及其历史影响

通过对《易经》中“心”、“思”范畴的探讨,了解其中心理思想的概貌。并通过对《观》卦爻辞的分析,较为深入地认识《易经》在认知过程、思维层次的探索方面所做出的贡献,以及对先秦诸子所产生的较大的影响,从而证明《易经》为中国辩证逻辑思维之源。     

Effects of pairing aggressive and nonaggressive children in strategic peer affiliation

Examined the behavior of 118 second graders who participated in a 6-week summer school program that incorporated strategic peer affiliation (a buddy system). Moderately aggressive children (the targets of the intervention) were paired with nonaggressive peers throughout the program. All participants were observed playing foosball with their buddies and with aggressive and nonaggressive nonbuddies as teammates. Aggressive children had lower levels of disruptive behavior when their teammate was nonaggressive, regardless of whether the teammate was a buddy. Nonaggressive children showed elevated disruptive behavior when playing with an aggressive nonbuddy, but not when playing with an aggressive buddy. The highest level of aggressive behavior was seen in pairs of aggressive teammates who were friends. One year later, no increase in peer-rated aggressive behavior was found in either group. Results suggest that unidirectional peer influence is possible and that strategic peer affiliation can be an effective intervention that does not put nonaggressive children at risk for acquiring undesired behaviors.     

Who uses what and how often?: Personality predictors of multiplatform social media use among young adults

To understand who uses social media and how often they do so, we examined the personality traits that predict frequency of using a set of 10 different types of social media (e.g., social networks, blogs, virtual worlds). Using survey data collected from two large-scale samples of young adults (Exploratory Study 1 N = 1586, Confirmatory Study 2 N = 1432), we conducted direct replications of our findings to test whether the observed relationships between social media use and personality traits were reliable. Our replicated findings reveal that sex, age and extraversion are reliable predictors of several types of social media use (e.g., Facebook, Messaging Platforms, Online Forums), while other traits (e.g., agreeableness, Machiavellianism) showed unreliable associations. Our findings also reveal dimensions of multiplatform social media use that categorize the media ecologies of young adults and show significant associations with individual difference measures.     

A preregistered study of the relationship between childhood socioeconomic background,life history strategies and conformity

We conducted a high powered pre-registered study to investigate the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status, the adoption of different life history strategies and conformity. Contrary to our expectation we found no direct relationship between childhood socioeconomic background and conformity. However, we discovered a significant association between life history strategies and conformity. People who adopt fast (slow) life history strategies conform less (more) to social suggestions. Furthermore, we found a relationship between childhood socioeconomic background and life history strategies, with people from low (high) childhood socioeconomic backgrounds adopting fast (slow) life history strategies.     

Infant media use: A harm reduction approach

There are a myriad of potentially harmful developmental outcomes associated with infant digital media use. Studies revealing risk associated with early media use have informed the current American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommendations that discourage most digital media use among children under 18 months of age. Recent research advances, however, suggest potential benefits of technology engagement in this age group. Additionally, surveys of parents reveal that most infants engage with digital media for at least 30 min a day, exceeding the AAP recommendations. In response to these discoveries and cultural trends, some scholars have made compelling cases to adapt the AAP guidelines for infants. A helpful model for developing infant digital media use guidelines for families may be the harm reduction approach. The intent of this review is to suggest adaptations to the AAP guidelines for infant media engagement using a harm reduction framework. This review describes the challenge of restrictive guidelines, briefly summarizes the harm reduction approach, provides a review of risks and benefits associated with infant media use in each developmental domain (physical, cognitive, and socioemotional), summarizes correlates of infant screen media use, and examines intervention strategies for reducing screen time. The paper concludes with examples of possible adaptations to current AAP infant media use recommendations using harm reduction and bioecological frameworks.