The influence of hierarchy on probability judgment

Consider the task of predicting which soccer team will win the next World Cup. The bookmakers may judge Brazil to be the team most likely to win, but also judge it most likely that a European rather than a Latin American team will win. This is an example of a non-aligned hierarchy structure: the most probable event at the subordinate level (Brazil wins) appears to be inconsistent with the most probable event at the superordinate level (a European team wins). In this paper we exploit such structures to investigate how people make predictions based on uncertain hierarchical knowledge. We distinguish between aligned and non-aligned environments, and conjecture that people assume alignment. Participants were exposed to a non-aligned training set in which the most probable superordinate category predicted one outcome, whereas the most probable subordinate category predicted a different outcome. In the test phase participants allowed their initial probability judgments about category membership to shift their final ratings of the probability of the outcome, even though all judgments were made on the basis of the same statistical data. In effect people were primed to focus on the most likely path in an inference tree, and neglect alternative paths. These results highlight the importance of the level at which statistical data are represented, and suggest that when faced with hierarchical inference problems people adopt a simplifying heuristic that assumes alignment.     

Children's response to sales promotions and their impact on purchase behavior

Despite the growth in children's purchasing power, surprisingly little is known about how children respond to sales promotions. We conduct two experiments to address this issue. Study 1 shows that elementary-aged (second and fifth grade) children's purchase decisions are influenced by the presence of sales. Study 2 demonstrates that both age groups favor conceptually easier promotions, even when the sale is inferior. Additionally, we find that children have difficulty applying mathematical concepts to sales promotions, regardless of classroom mastery of the associated operations. Together, these results indicate that elementary-aged children routinely incorporate sales into purchase decisions, sometimes with suboptimal results.     

Rethinking reinforcement: allocation, induction, and contingency

The concept of reinforcement is at least incomplete and almost certainly incorrect. An alternative way of organizing our understanding of behavior may be built around three concepts: allocation, induction, and correlation. Allocation is the measure of behavior and captures the centrality of choice: All behavior entails choice and consists of choice. Allocation changes as a result of induction and correlation. The term induction covers phenomena such as adjunctive, interim, and terminal behavior-behavior induced in a situation by occurrence of food or another Phylogenetically Important Event (PIE) in that situation. Induction resembles stimulus control in that no one-to-one relation exists between induced behavior and the inducing event. If one allowed that some stimulus control were the result of phylogeny, then induction and stimulus control would be identical, and a PIE would resemble a discriminative stimulus. Much evidence supports the idea that a PIE induces all PIE-related activities. Research also supports the idea that stimuli correlated with PIEs become PIE-related conditional inducers. Contingencies create correlations between "operant" activity (e.g., lever pressing) and PIEs (e.g., food). Once an activity has become PIE-related, the PIE induces it along with other PIE-related activities. Contingencies also constrain possible performances. These constraints specify feedback functions, which explain phenomena such as the higher response rates on ratio schedules in comparison with interval schedules. Allocations that include a lot of operant activity are "selected" only in the sense that they generate more frequent occurrence of the PIE within the constraints of the situation; contingency and induction do the "selecting."     

Responses to symptom induction exercises in panic disorder

Exposure to panic symptoms (interoceptive exposure) is often included as part of treatment for panic disorder (PD), although little is known about the relative effects of particular symptom induction exercises. This study describes responses of individuals with PD and nonclinical controls to 13 standard symptom induction exercises and 3 control exercises. Generally, individuals with PD responded more strongly to symptom induction exercises than did controls. The exercises producing the most fear included spinning, hyperventilation, breathing through a straw, and using a tongue depressor. This study also reports findings regarding specific symptoms triggered by each exercise, the percentage of participants reporting fear during each exercise, and predictors of fear.     

Platonic Number in the Parmenides and Metaphysics XIII

I argue here that a properly Platonic theory of the nature of number is still viable today. By properly Platonic, I mean one consistent with Plato's own theory, with appropriate extensions to take into account subsequent developments in mathematics. At Parmenides 143a-4a the existence of numbers is proven from our capacity to count, whereby I establish as Plato's the theory that numbers are originally ordinal, a sequence of forms differentiated by position. I defend and interpret Aristotle's report of a Platonic distinction between form and mathematical numbers, arguing that mathematical numbers alone are cardinals, by reference to certain non-technical features of a set-theoretical approach and other considerations in philosophy of mathematics. Finally I respond to the objections that such a conception of number was unavailable in antiquity and that this theory is contradicted by Aristotle's report in Metaph . XIII that Platonic numbers are collections of units. I argue that Aristotle reveals his own misinterpretation of the terms in which Plato's theory was expressed.     

Goodbye and farewell: Siegel vs. Feyerabend∗

The discussion between Searle and the Churchlands over whether or not symbolmanipulating computers generate semantics will be confronted both with the rulesceptical considerations of Kripke/Wittgenstein and with Wittgenstein's privatelanguage argument in order to show that the discussion focuses on the wrong place: meaning does not emerge in the brain. That a symbol means something should rather be conceived as a social fact, depending on a mutual imputation of linguistic competence of the participants of a linguistic practice to one another. The alternative picture will finally be applied to small children, animals, and computers as well.     

Developmental Study of the Reversed Stroop Effect in Chinese-English Bilinguals

Chinese-English bilinguals in Grades 2, 4, 8, 10, and in college read Chinese and English color words in black or in colored print in the corresponding language. Subjects were more efficient in reading Chinese than English. This superiority effect of reading Chinese gradually decreased as subjects' familiarity with English increased. Furthermore, skilled readers were less susceptible than less skilled readers to the introduction of conflicting colors of ink. This result indicates that the pattern of the reversed Stroop (1935; Dunbar & MacLeod, 1984) effect is related to the proficiency of word processing.