An Impossibility Theorem on Beliefs in Games

A paradox of self-reference in beliefs in games is identified, which yields a game-theoretic impossibility theorem akin to Russell’s Paradox. An informal version of the paradox is that the following configuration of beliefs is impossible:Ann believes that Bob assumes thatAnn believes that Bob’s assumption is wrongThis is formalized to show that any belief model of a certain kind must have a ‘hole.’ An interpretation of the result is that if the analyst’s tools are available to the players in a game, then there are statements that the players can think about but cannot assume. Connections are made to some questions in the foundations of game theory.Special Issue Ways of Worlds II. On Possible Worlds and Related Notions Edited by Vincent F. Hendricks and Stig Andur Pedersen     

Exploring Master Therapists’ Use of Power in Conversation

Various theoretical approaches to therapy place different emphases on the use of power in therapy. In this study, we explore six master therapists’ use of power via communicational control for theoretical consistency. Results indicate that all therapists, regardless of their stance on power, use the role of therapist to exert power in an initial therapy session. Master therapists, in general, did appear to be theoretically consistent with their stated philosophies of therapy. Suggestions for future studies exploring power therapists have are included.     

社会医疗保险道德风险博弈与防控措施研究

通过对社会医疗保险道德风险产生原因与特征的探讨,根据不完全信息重复博弈模型对社会医疗保险道德风险进行了系统分析,据此提出了社会医疗保险道德风险的防控措施,以期实现对道德风险的有效防控,提高社会医疗保险基金的安全。     

Spirituality and education; inner and outer realities

There is a persisting tendency in attempts to define spirituality, to adopt a dualistic point of view which sees the spirit as somehow impenetrably inner, innate and introspectively perceived, interacting with the outer world through the body. As well as a strong intuitive sense of the correctness of this philosophical point of view, it also is supported by psychotherapeutic perspectives that speak of the private inner being. In this paper I will argue that this view is logically, epistemologically, morally, and psychologically problematic. It will be argued that the concept of an inwardness to our mental life can be distinguished from the view of that life as interior. The perspective that we have of our inward selves is learned and conditional upon a sense of an outer self, functioning and communicating in the public world. Rather than an ego centric conceptualization of spirituality based on the idea of the spirit as inner and logically inaccessible, I we might adopt a sociocentric perspective in which the supremacy of the ego is dissolved in favour of an understanding in which we see ourselves as part of the social and natural outer world in which we exist.     

“This way!”, “No! That way!”—3-year olds know that two people can have mutually incompatible desires

In theory of mind research, there is a long standing dispute about whether children come to understand the subjectivity of both desires and beliefs at the same time (around age 4), or whether there is an asymmetry such that desires are understood earlier. To address this issue, 3-year olds’ understanding of situations in which two persons have mutually incompatible desires was tested in two studies. Results revealed that (i) children were quite proficient at ascribing incompatible desires to two persons, and in simpler scenarios even incompatible desire-dependent emotions; (ii) children showed this proficiency even though they mostly failed the false belief task. Overall, these results suggest that there is an asymmetry such that young children come to understand the subjective nature of desires before they understand the corresponding subjectivity of beliefs. Possible explanations for this asymmetry are discussed in light of conceptual change and information-processing accounts of theory of mind development.     

“To eat or not to be eaten?” Collective risk-monitoring in groups

The importance of risk-monitoring has been increasing in many key aspects of our modern lives. This paper examines how individuals monitor such risks collectively by extending a behavioral ecological model of animal foraging to human groups. Just as animals must forage for food under predatory risk, humans must divide valuable material and psychological resources between foraging activity and risk-monitoring activity. We predicted that game-theoretic aspects of the group situation complicate such a trade-off decision in resource allocation, eventually yielding a mixed equilibrium in a group. When the equilibrium is reached, only a subset of members engage in the risk-monitoring activity while others free-ride, concentrating mainly on their own foraging activity. Laboratory groups engaging in foraging under moderate risk provided a support to this prediction. When the risk-level was set higher, however, “herding behavior” (conforming to the dominant behavior) interfered with the emergence of equilibrium. Implications for risk management are discussed.     

The enduring impact of transient emotions on decision making

People often do not realize they are being influenced by an incidental emotional state. As a result, decisions based on a fleeting incidental emotion can become the basis for future decisions and hence outlive the original cause for the behavior (i.e., the emotion itself). Using a sequence of ultimatum and dictator games, we provide empirical evidence for the enduring impact of transient emotions on economic decision making. Behavioral consistency and false consensus are presented as potential underlying processes.     

胃癌根治术中常规放置空肠营养管的博弈思考

规范化的胃癌根治术是我国胃癌治疗的发展方向,本文回顾性分析胃癌根治术中常规放置空肠营养管和术后早期肠内营养在胃癌规范化治疗中的作用。结果表明空肠营养管置入和对照组术后并发症率无显著性差异（P=0.501）,早期联合肠内营养可有效缩短住院时间（P=0.0115）。结合博弈论的观点分析,胃癌根治术中放置空肠营养管在并发症预防和治疗中有重要作用,可能避免不必要的二次开腹手术,因此是一种对于医患双方都最为有利的策略选择。     

变革型领导力和交易型领导力：团队绩效的预测指标

在高不确定,高度竞争,高度挑战的任务情景下,领导力在团队中将扮演怎样的角色？变革型领导力与交易型领导力又是如何预测团队任务绩效的？为了回答这些问题,该研究对130名学生被试,31个团队,用ERP沙盘模拟游戏来进行模拟实验。通过高度模拟现实中企业经营的情景,从而提高实验结果的外部效度。实验结果表明,变革型领导力与交易型领导力都能够积极地预测团队任务绩效,消极领导力与任务绩效呈负相关,虽然并没有达到统计学显著水平,但研究结果的方向都支持了实验假设。     

Signalling signalhood and the emergence of communication

A unique hallmark of human language is that it uses signals that are both learnt and symbolic. The emergence of such signals was therefore a defining event in human cognitive evolution, yet very little is known about how such a process occurs. Previous work provides some insights on how meaning can become attached to form, but a more foundational issue is presently unaddressed. How does a signal signal its own signalhood? That is, how do humans even know that communicative behaviour is indeed communicative in nature? We introduce an experimental game that has been designed to tackle this problem. We find that it is commonly resolved with a bootstrapping process, and that this process influences the final form of the communication system. Furthermore, sufficient common ground is observed to be integral to the recognition of signalhood, and the emergence of dialogue is observed to be the key step in the development of a system that can be employed to achieve shared goals.