The Sharing Dilemma: Joining Cooperative Groups and Sharing Resources as a Means of Coping with Environmental Risk

The “social insurance” hypothesis posits that individuals join cooperative groups and share resources in order to reduce environmental risk. Despite its significance for explaining cooperative groups' formation, in small‐scale and in developing societies, the hypothesis has been subjected to little experimental testing. The present research is designed to examine the relative weight of the motivation for social insurance compared with other psychological motivations for sharing risk. We conducted two studies to test the tendency to share risk under different risk conditions and for groups of different sizes. A third experiment extends the risk‐sharing research to situations involving losses instead of gains. The findings of the first two studies lend strong support to the risk‐sharing hypothesis in the gain domain. For the loss domain, the results of the third experiment demonstrate an intriguing shift from strong reluctance to join groups under lower risk, to ubiquitous readiness to join groups under higher risk. We discuss these results in light of prospect theory and decisions from experience. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lay Personality Theories in Interactive Decisions: Strongly Held,Weakly Supported

In interactive decisions, cues to what others will do are important in forming a strategy. Information about others' personalities appears to be potentially valuable for this purpose. We report a series of four studies examining how information about another actor's personality influences people's own choices in interactive decisions. The studies found widespread beliefs that others' personality characteristics are strongly predictive both of broad classes of decision behavior (competition/cooperation, risk‐seeking/risk‐aversion) (Study 1) and of specific choices (Study 2) in single‐agent settings. These beliefs extended to predicting others' choices in interactive decisions (Study 3) and to shaping the predictor's own decisions in interactive play in Chicken and Assurance games (Study 4). Overall, we found extensive evidence that laypeople believe that the personality traits we selected (angry‐hostility, anxiety, assertiveness, excitement‐seeking, and warmth) have substantial effects on behavior in interactive decisions and they act on those beliefs when making their own decisions. The empirical evidence supporting the predictive validity of these traits was, however, quite weak. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for Implicit Risk: Delay Facilitates the Processing of Uncertainty

Humans and other animals discount the value of rewards over time. One explanation for this is that delayed rewards may be less certain than immediate rewards, what has been referred to as the implicit risk hypothesis. Although this explanation is widely accepted, little research has directly assessed the validity of the implicit risk hypothesis. In the current study, we present two experiments in which participants made decisions about rewards involving both delay and uncertainty. By manipulating the order in which information was presented, we were able to investigate whether delay information facilitates beliefs about uncertainty and vice versa. It was found that participants were more likely to prefer larger, delayed rewards when information about delay was presented before information about uncertainty than when the information was presented in the opposite order. Additionally, we describe a process model that implements the implicit risk hypothesis and show that it is consistent with the observed patterns of data. These results support the implicit risk hypothesis and suggest that information about delay facilitates the processing of information about uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying Supervisory Decision Making: Eye‐Tracking Technology Applications for the Promotion of Child Safety

Previous research has investigated various risk factors correlated with childhood injury, but few studies have successfully investigated these variables beyond participant self‐report. The present study utilized infrared eye‐tracking and computer‐based latency measures to evaluate caregiver supervision decisions in injury risk situations for typically developing children and children with autism spectrum disorder. The sample included 99 young women, ages 18–24 years, who are frequent non‐parental caregivers for children. Results indicated that participants altered their speed of response, child monitoring, and intervention decisions on the basis of idiosyncratic assessment of injury risk. Minimal significant differences emerged with regard to supervision behavior and chosen strategies when comparing children with autism spectrum disorder to typically developing children. Overall, results suggest that non‐parental caregivers integrate child characteristics and environmental risk factors when assessing risk and choosing interventions. Implications are discussed with regard to injury prevention programs emphasizing protective aspects of supervision for children across various settings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Luck as Risk and the Lack of Control Account of Luck

This essay explains the notion of luck in terms of risk. It starts by distinguishing two senses of risk, the risk that an event has of occurring and the risk at which an agent is with respect to an event. It cashes out the former in modal terms (rather than probabilistic) and the latter in terms of lack of control. It then argues that the presence or absence of event‐relative risk marks a distinction between two types of luck or fortune commonly overlooked in ordinary usage of the terms “luck” and “fortune.” After offering a detailed account of the notion of control, the essay advances a new version of the so‐called lack of control account of luck: lucky events are events with respect to which one is at risk and hence events over which one lacks control in the specified way. Finally, it argues that its account steers clear of counterexamples to the lack of control account of luck.     

Peer pressure and risk taking in young drivers’ speeding behavior

Although many countermeasures have been implemented in Europe, young drivers continue to have a high rate of involvement in car crashes. Their crash rate is higher in presence of peer passengers than when driving alone. Peer presence could contribute toward explaining this involvement, especially regarding speeding. Peers are known to often influence young drivers’ risky behaviors through proximal (direct and indirect active pressures) and distal (passive pressure) forms of intervention (Allen & Brown, 2008). This present study examined the effect of peer pressure and peer risk taking on the estimated speeding behavior of a scenario driver (ESBSD) as well as on the estimated speeding intention of a scenario driver (ESISD). The scenario driver was the main character in an online-scenario based questionnaire regarding speeding. The main character is a fictional young male depicted driving with his best friends in all the experimental scenarios in which the variables type of pressure and peer risk taking were manipulated. One hundred and eighty young French drivers (18–25 years, 50% men) took part in the study. The key findings were that (1) only direct and indirect active pressure, but not passive pressure, increased the ESBSD and that (2) high (vs. low) peer risk taking lead to a higher ESISD. However, no interaction between the pressure type and peer risk taking on ESBSD and ESISD was found. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

概率性输入,噪音“与”门(PINA)模型

当前认知诊断测验的主要目的是对被试进行合理分类,进而采用类别变量去描述被试对某技能或知识(即认知属性)的掌握情况,但该粗糙的分类方法不能精细地区分不同被试之间的差异。对此,采用掌握概率这一连续变量去描述被试对某认知属性的掌握情况是一种值得尝试的做法。本文首先基于高阶潜在特质(简称"潜质")模型给出了认知属性掌握概率的量化定义,之后与多成分潜质模型相结合提出了概率性输入,噪音"与"门(PINA)模型;其次,采用MCMC算法实现了对PINA的参数估计,结果表明参数估计程序对各参数的估计返真性均较好;最后,以ECPE数据为例来说明PINA在实际测验分析中具有可行性。     

人际敏感:从社会认知到心理危险因素

作为一种社会认知能力,人际敏感受到了研究者的广泛关注。近年来,研究者将这种以不断担心负面的社会评价为特征,对他人评价保持警觉与敏感,并采取防御性行为(如服从或抑制行为)以避免负面社会评价的倾向作为个体一种整合的人格特征。研究发现人际敏感是传染性疾病的心理危险因素,并可能会增加心血管疾病的风险。未来研究应发展信效度良好的测量工具,进一步地整合相关模型,明确人际敏感影响健康的内部机制,为疾病的预防与心理干预提供指导。     

Using the Linehan Risk Assessment and Management Protocol With a Chronically Suicidal Patient: A Case Report

The Linehan Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (LRAMP) is an empirically supported, comprehensive framework used to assess suicide risk and protective factors, and provide a guide for the therapist to consider reasonable options for intervening on suicidal behavior. This protocol includes a structured checklist for assessing, managing, and documenting suicide risk. It also structures the documentation to clearly describe the presentation, assessment, in-session interventions, decision-making process, and follow-up to other members of the treatment team. This paper describes a case in which the LRAMP was used to guide the assessment, intervention, and documentation of the suicidal behavior of a patient, “Ann,” being treated with outpatient Dialectical Behavioral Therapy in a community mental health clinic. Each section of the LRAMP is discussed as it was used with this complex patient, who had history of high utilization of acute psychiatric services. Application of the LRAMP included the assessment of risk and protective factors, and the use of an individualized crisis plan that engaged the patient, her family, the therapist, and the clinical team, to decrease acute risk, continue outpatient treatment, and avoid inpatient hospitalization. The considerations for documenting clinical decision-making with chronically suicidal patients are discussed.