Decision-makers use social information to update their preferences but choose for others as they do for themselves

People's risky decisions are susceptible to the social context in which they take place. Across three experiments using different paradigms, we investigated the influence of three social factors upon participants' decisions: the recipient of the decision-making outcome (self, other, or joint), the nature of the relationship with the other agent (friend, stranger, or teammate), and the type of information that participants received about others' preferences: none at all, general information about how previous participants had decided, or information about a specific partner's preference. We found that participants' decisions about risk did not differ according to whether the outcome at stake was their own, another agent's, or a joint outcome, nor according to the type of information available. Participants did, however, adjust their preferences for risky options in light of social information.     

条件推理:“演绎”与“概率”两种实验研究范式之比较

本研究通过推理心理学研究中的“演绎”和“概率”两种实验范式设计对同一个班级的大学生参与者(实验一中N=57,实验二中N=43)进行先后两次有关条件推理的实验研究后,得出如下主要结果:(1)推理者在对不同的“纯形式条件命题本身的认可度”以及对由它们各自建构的同类型推理题的推理结果之间的作答反应模式之间的差异都很小且具有较高的一致性;(2)对由不同的“含具体内容的假言命题”本身的认可度之间以及由它们建构的同类型条件推理题的推理结果之间具有较大的差异性;(3)推理者对“演绎”和“概率”两种不同实验范式分别建构的内容近似的推进题进行推理时具有大致相同的作答反应趋势。由此可以推论推理者在“概率推理实验范式”中的作答或推理结果可以被视为只是对“演绎推理实验范式”的相应推理题给出“概率解”的心理加工过程。     

Perception of unsafe driving behaviour and reported driving behaviour among commercial motorcyclists in Dar es Salaam,Tanzania

Commercial motorcycle drivers are recognised to take high risks while driving, but little is known about their perception of these risks. This paper presents the results of a survey of 400 commercial motorcyclists' perception of unsafe driving behaviours and then determine the association between the perception of unsafe driving behaviour and reported driving behaviour. The study was carried out in Dar es Salaam between December 8th 2018 and March 24th 2019. Drivers aged 18 years and above were selected from 90 parking stages within the city and completed a structured interview. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate the prevalence ratios (PRs). We found that close to 60% of drivers considered unsafe driving to be unsafe. However, reported unsafe driving behaviour was moderately common. Our results showed that reported unsafe driving behaviour (adjusted PR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.3–2.2) was associated with a low perception of the dangers of unsafe driving among motorcyclists. The higher the earnings a driver had (adjusted PR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.2–2.0), the higher the likelihood of having a low perceived risk of unsafe behaviour. These findings suggest that commercial motorcyclists' unsafe behaviour are, for the most part, not the result of a poor perception of the involved risks.     

医疗信息的风险感知

从信息加工视角探究个体对医疗信息的风险感知过程, 通过医疗信息来源、医疗信息内容与呈现形式和信息加工主体三个方面归纳其影响因素, 并基于经验-分析式加工理论和字面-要义加工理论探讨医疗信息风险感知的认知机制。今后研究可更注重医疗信息风险感知的通用研究与特殊主题研究的平衡、风险感知测量工具的规范性与特异性的结合, 并立足于中国医疗体系建立具有循证依据的预防措施和配套政策。     

Drawing to reconstruct: Pilot study on acknowledging prisoners' internal and external resources in a penitentiary institution

Since the first offender rehabilitation treatments, all theoretical approaches have been focusing on reducing risk factors that may influence recidivism, without satisfactory results. Recent resilience research has instead shown the important mediating or moderating role of protective factors and provided the theoretical principles for the Good Lives Model Comprehensive. This holistic model suggests the importance of integrating the reduction of risk factors with the reinforcement of protective factors in offenders' treatment programs. This combined action is considered the main condition through which offenders are motivated to change their life and develop a sense of agency on their current life conditions. This article presents a pilot study, aimed at analyzing the feasibility of a psychosocial intervention, based on graphic workshops. The purpose of the intervention is helping prisoners strive toward adaptation in jail, and facilitating the redesign of their life beyond bars. Drawing activities allowed prisoners to enhance their own internal and external resources, and recognize risk and protective factors that could influence their successful reintegration into society. The main limit of this study is directly linked to the setting of the penitentiary institution where the study was conducted, which is characterized by a high prisoners' turn over.     

Molecular analyses of the principal components of response strength

Killeen and Hall (2001) showed that a common factor called strength underlies the key dependent variables of response probability, latency, and rate, and that overall response rate is a good predictor of strength. In a search for the mechanisms that underlie those correlations, this article shows that (a) the probability of responding on a trial is a two-state Markov process; (b) latency and rate of responding can be described in terms of the probability and period of stochastic machines called clocked Bernoulli modules, and (c) one such machine, the refractory Poisson process, provides a functional relation between the probability of observing a response during any epoch and the rate of responding. This relation is one of proportionality at low rates and curvilinearity at higher rates.     

Interparental conflict and risk behaviors among Mexican American adolescents: a cognitive-emotional model

This study used a cognitive-emotional model to examine the relations between multiple dimensions of interparental conflict and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. Participants were 151 Mexican American adolescents and their parents. At initial individual interviews, parents reported on conflict with their spouses, and adolescents reported on their parents' conflict, their appraisals of the conflict, their emotional distress, and their acculturation level. At 6-month follow-ups, adolescents reported on their risk behaviors, including substance use and sexual activity. In general, adolescents' acculturation level was not related to their risk behaviors. More frequent conflict, more conflict about the adolescent, more adolescent involvement in the conflict, and poor conflict resolution were related to greater emotional distress. More conflict about the adolescent, mothers being more demanding/dominating during conflict, and more adolescent involvement in the conflict were related to greater risk behaviors. Adolescents' cognitions mediated the link between two dimensions of parental conflict, frequency and resolution, and emotional distress. Adolescents' emotional distress mediated the association between adolescent involvement in parental conflict and adolescents' risk behaviors.     

Entailment with Near Surety of Scaled Assertions of High Conditional Probability

An assertion of high conditional probability or, more briefly, an HCP assertion is a statement of the type: The conditional probability of B given A is close to one. The goal of this paper is to construct logics of HCP assertions whose conclusions are highly likely to be correct rather than certain to be correct. Such logics would allow useful conclusions to be drawn when the premises are not strong enough to allow conclusions to be reached with certainty. This goal is achieved by taking Adams" (1966) logic, changing its intended application from conditionals to HCP assertions, and then weakening its criterion for entailment. According to the weakened entailment criterion, called the Criterion of Near Surety and which may be loosely interpreted as a Bayesian criterion, a conclusion is entailed if and only if nearly every model of the premises is a model of the conclusion. The resulting logic, called NSL, is nonmonotonic. Entailment in this logic, although not as strict as entailment in Adams" logic, is more strict than entailment in the propositional logic of material conditionals. Next, NSL was modified by requiring that each HCP assertion be scaled; this means that to each HCP assertion was associated a bound on the deviation from 1 of the conditional probability that is the subject of the assertion. Scaling of HCP assertions is useful for breaking entailment deadlocks. For example, it it is known that the conditional probabilities of C given A and of ¬ C given B are both close to one but the bound on the former"s deviation from 1 is much smaller than the latter"s, then it may be concluded that in all likelihood the conditional probability of C given A B is close to one. The resulting logic, called NSL-S, is also nonmonotonic. Despite great differences in their definitions of entailment, entailment in NSL is equivalent to Lehmann and Magidor"s rational closure and, disregarding minor differences concerning which premise sets are considered consistent, entailment in NSL-S is equivalent to entailment in Goldszmidt and Pearl"s System-Z ⁺. Bacchus, Grove, Halpern, and Koller proposed two methods of developing a predicate calculus based on the Criterion of Near Surety. In their random-structures method, which assumed a prior distribution similar to that of NSL, it appears possible to define an entailment relation equivalent to that of NSL. In their random-worlds method, which assumed a prior distribution dramatically different from that of NSL, it is known that the entailment relation is different from that of NSL.     

Dimensions of Early Childhood Behavior Problems: Stability and Predictors of Change from 18 to 30 Months

The prevalence, structure, stability, and predictors of change in early behavior problems were examined in a population-based sample of Norwegian children at 18 and 30 months of age (N = 750). A clear factor structure involving four dimensions emerged at both assessment times: Two factors were characterized by externalizing behaviors and were labeled Social Adjustment and Overactive-Inattentive; one factor tapped internalizing problems and was labeled Emotional Adjustment; and the fourth, related to general immaturity, was labeled Regulation. Specific patterns of child and family risk factors were associated with stability and change over the two time points for each factor. Children with stable problems had the most problematic characteristics on all significant predictors, followed by children with problems at one, but not both, time points. The data suggest that it is possible to identify risk factors for stable problems at 18 months, allowing some prediction of those children whose problems will persist over early childhood. Since specific risk factors emerged for specific types of behavior problems, the results may provide some much-needed guidance to early intervention efforts.     

On the effects of signaling reinforcer probability and magnitude in delayed matching to sample

Two experiments examined whether postsample signals of reinforcer probability or magnitude affected the accuracy of delayed matching to sample in pigeons. On each trial, red or green choice responses that matched red or green stimuli seen shortly before a variable retention interval were reinforced with wheat access. In Experiment 1, the reinforcer probability was either 0.2 or 1.0 for both red and green responses. Reinforcer probability was signaled by line or cross symbols that appeared after the sample had been presented. In Experiment 2, all correct responses were reinforced, and the signaled reinforcer durations were 1.0 s and 4.5 s. Matching was more accurate when larger or more probable reinforcers were signaled, independently of retention interval duration. Because signals were presented postsample, the effects were not the result of differential attention to the sample.