Introducing naturalistic cycling data: What factors influence bicyclists’ safety in the real world?

Presently, the collection and analysis of naturalistic data is the most credited method for understanding road user behavior and improving traffic safety. Such methodology was developed for motorized vehicles, such as cars and trucks, and is still largely applied to those vehicles. However, a reasonable question is whether bicycle safety can also benefit from the naturalistic methodology, once collection and analyses are properly ported from motorized vehicles to bicycles. This paper answers this question by showing that instrumented bicycles can also collect analogous naturalistic data. In addition, this paper shows how naturalistic cycling data from 16 bicyclists can be used to estimate risk while cycling. The results show that cycling near an intersection increased the risk of experiencing a critical event by four times, and by twelve times when the intersection presented some form of visual occlusion (e.g., buildings and hedges). Poor maintenance of the road increased the risk tenfold. Furthermore, the risk of experiencing a critical event was twice as large when at least one pedestrian or another bicyclist crossed the bicyclist’s trajectory. Finally, this study suggests the two most common scenarios for bicycle accidents, which result from different situations and thus require different countermeasures. The findings presented in this paper show that bicycle safety can benefit from the naturalistic methodology, which provides data able to guide development and evaluation of (intelligent) countermeasures to increase cycling safety.     

Satisfaction et confort au travail. L’apport de la démarche implicative

A large body of research has investigated the psycho-organizational variables predicting satisfaction at work, but few studies have so far examined variables in the field of environmental psychology. Our study aims first to identify the impact of variables evaluating comfort at work (satisfaction with the work environment, attachment to the workplace) by comparing them with organizational variables known to be related to job satisfaction, and then to rank the relationships between these variables in a pseudo- implication sequence, based on statistical implicative analysis. The study involved 105 bank employees and confirms our theoretical model, showing that job satisfaction can be explained implicatively by the three other variables [(Comfort/Functionality => Control/privacy) => Workplace attachment] => job satisfaction.     

Sources of autonomy support,subjective vitality and physical activity behaviour associated with participation in a lunchtime walking intervention for physically inactive adults

ObjectivesBased on Basic Needs Theory (BNT: Deci & Ryan, 1985), this study examined longitudinal relationships between autonomy support from two sources, psychological need satisfaction, subjective vitality and self-reported physical activity during a walking intervention for physically inactive adults. We proposed that autonomy support provided via a walk leader and the overall programme would independently predict change in subjective vitality and physical activity from baseline to week 16 (post-intervention) and at four month follow-up. Further, we proposed that direct relationships among sources of autonomy support and outcomes would be mediated by autonomy, relatedness, and competence need satisfaction.DesignA longitudinal examination.MethodsParticipants (N = 69; n = 63 females, n = 6 males) from a 16-week walking programme completed a multi-section questionnaire measuring the aforementioned variables at three time points, including a four month post-intervention follow-up.ResultsBoth hypotheses were partly supported. Autonomy support from the walk leader positively predicted changes in subjective vitality from baseline to week 16 and in physical activity from baseline to follow-up. Autonomy support from the programme positively predicted changes in subjective vitality from baseline to week 16. Finally, autonomy gained from the walk leader mediated the relationship between autonomy support and subjective vitality, and between perceived autonomy support and physical activity.ConclusionsFindings indicate that autonomy support from both a walk leader and wider programme can predict psychological need satisfaction, subjective vitality and physical activity. Clinicians and researchers implementing future walking interventions may increase physical activity and subjective vitality by facilitating psychological need satisfaction through autonomy support from both sources.     

Determinants of ethnic identity development in adulthood: A longitudinal study

Ethnic identity is defined in terms of the interaction between exploration of and commitment to a given cultural background. The present study investigated the effect of individual background, role transitions, and the social environment on the development of ethnic identity in a sample of German adults aged 21–73 years (N = 2,940). Additionally, identity transitions and the moderating effect of disequilibrating life events on identity over time were examined (N = 827). Overall, results are consistent with findings for other identity domains: Respondents could be assigned to one of four identity stages, ranging from unexamined to achieved identity. Particularly, the individual background and the extent of community involvement affected ethnic identity formation in adulthood. Longitudinal analyses revealed that only one-third of respondents had remained in the same identity stage; most individuals had transitioned forward or backward. Changes in ethnic identity were not moderated by disequilibrating life events.     

基于作答时间数据的改变点分析在检测加速作答中的探索——已知和未知项目参数

相对于传统的离散作答数据, 作答时间作为连续数据, 可以提供更多信息。改变点分析(change point analysis)技术在心理和教育领域是一个比较新的技术。本文一方面对改变点分析在心理测量领域的应用进行了一个综合的总结和分析; 另一方面, 将基于作答数据的两种改变点分析统计量推广到作答时间数据, 将改变点分析技术应用到测验异常作答模式：加速作答speededness的检测上。采用两种检验方法：似然比检验和Wald检验, 分别在已知和未知项目参数的条件下, 实现异常作答模式的检测。结果表明, 所采用的方法对于加速作答行为的检测具有很高的检验力, 同时能够很好的控制I类错误率。实证数据分析进一步表明本文中所使用的方法具有应用价值。     

Analyzing pedestrian behavior when crossing urban roads by combining RP and SP data

Considering the high crash rates involving pedestrians on urban roads, it is highly relevant to understanding pedestrian crossing behavior. This paper is the first to combine stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data to evaluate the impact that individual attributes, trip characteristics, built environment, strategies to prevent unauthorized crossing, and traffic flows have on pedestrians crossing decisions in an urban context. SP and RP surveys were designed and collected in Barranquilla (Colombia) near pedestrian bridges or signalized intersections where direct crossings and a high concentration of pedestrian fatalities related to traffic accidents exist. A logit model was estimated using the data enrichment paradigm. Results show that pedestrians weigh risks and costs when choosing how to cross the road. The trajectories observed in the RP component suggest that people prefer direct crossings; nevertheless, pedestrian bridges and signalized intersections can be attractive alternatives if their location matches the origin or destination of the crossing, and no detour is needed to use them. Waiting time; safety; the fine imposed for jaywalking; personal security, and previous decisions are also variables that influence pedestrian behavior when crossing urban roads. These results can be helpful to urban planners and decision-makers interested in proposing appropriate pedestrian infrastructure. The data pooling technique and the inclusion of a cost-related variable (i.e., fine) allowed computing the willingness to pay and marginal substitution rates for attributes of the built environment and other characteristics associated with the crossing decision. Also, the inclusion of several crossing alternatives and situations allowed assessing pedestrian crossing preferences under different scenarios.     

新世纪20年国内假设检验及其关联问题的方法学研究

新世纪20年来国内假设检验方法学研究内容可分为如下几类: 零假设显著性检验的不足、p值的使用问题、心理学研究的可重复性问题、效应量、检验力、等效性检验、其他与假设检验关联的研究。零假设显著性检验已经发展成一套组合流程: 为了保证检验力和节省成本, 实验研究需要做先验检验力分析预估样本容量, 但问卷超过160人在传统统计中就没有必要这样做。当拒绝零假设时, 应当结合效应量做出结论。当不拒绝零假设时, 需要报告后验检验力; 如果效应量中或大而检验力不够高, 则可增加被试再行分析, 但这一过程应主动披露, 报告最后的实际p值并对可能犯的第一类错误率做出评估。     

国内调节效应的方法学研究

在心理学和其他社科研究领域, 大量实证文章建立调节效应模型, 以分析自变量对因变量的影响是如何随着调节变量的变化而改变。过去10多年, 调节效应分析成了方法学研究的一个热点。从显变量的调节效应、潜变量的调节效应、多层数据的调节效应、基于两层回归模型的单层调节分析、纵向数据的调节效应、调节和中介的整合模型六个主题系统地总结了国内调节效应分析的方法学研究的发展历程。最后对调节效应的未来研究方向做了讨论和拓展。     

项目反应理论观察分数核等值的影响因素

探究带宽选择方法、样本量、题目数量、等值设计、数据模拟方式对项目反应理论观察分数核等值的影响。通过两种数据模拟方式,获得研究数据,并计算局部与全域评价指标。研究发现,在随机组设计中,带宽选择方法表现相似;考生样本量和题目数量影响甚微。在非等组设计中,惩罚法与Silverman经验准则表现优异;增加题目量可降低百分相对误差和随机误差;增加样本量导致百分相对误差变大,随机误差减小。数据模拟方式可影响等值评价。未来应重点关注等值系统评估。