Second order inductive logic and Wilmers' principle

We extend the framework of Inductive Logic to Second Order languages and introduce Wilmers' Principle, a rational principle for probability functions on Second Order languages. We derive a representation theorem for functions satisfying this principle and investigate its relationship with the first order principles of Regularity and Super Regularity.     

Reflecting rules: A note on generalizing the deduction theorem

The purpose of this brief note is to prove a limitative theorem for a generalization of the deduction theorem. I discuss the relationship between the deduction theorem and rules of inference. Often when the deduction theorem is claimed to fail, particularly in the case of normal modal logics, it is the result of a confusion over what the deduction theorem is trying to show. The classic deduction theorem is trying to show that all so-called ‘derivable rules’ can be encoded into the object language using the material conditional. The deduction theorem can be generalized in the sense that one can attempt to encode all types of rules into the object language. When a rule is encoded in this way I say that it is reflected in the object language. What I show, however, is that certain logics which reflect a certain kind of rule must be trivial. Therefore, my generalization of the deduction theorem does fail where the classic deduction theorem didn't.     

Peer Assessment of Aviation Performance: Inconsistent for Good Reasons

Research into expertise is relatively common in cognitive science concerning expertise existing across many domains. However, much less research has examined how experts within the same domain assess the performance of their peer experts. We report the results of a modified think‐aloud study conducted with 18 pilots (6 first officers, 6 captains, and 6 flight examiners). Pairs of same‐ranked pilots were asked to rate the performance of a captain flying in a critical pre‐recorded simulator scenario. Findings reveal (a) considerable variance within performance categories, (b) differences in the process used as evidence in support of a performance rating, (c) different numbers and types of facts (cues) identified, and (d) differences in how specific performance events affect choice of performance category and gravity of performance assessment. Such variance is consistent with low inter‐rater reliability. Because raters exhibited good, albeit imprecise, reasons and facts, a fuzzy mathematical model of performance rating was developed. The model provides good agreement with observed variations.     

How Hume’s Philosophy Informed Radical Behaviorism

The present paper analyzes consistencies between the philosophical systems of David Hume and B. F. Skinner, focusing on their conceptualization of causality and attitudes about scientific behavior. The ideas that Hume initially advanced were further developed in Skinner’s writings and shaped the behavior-analytic approach to scientific behavior. Tracing Skinner’s logical antecedents allows for additional historical and philosophical clarity when examining the development of radical behaviorism.     

Sequential Aiming with Two Limbs and the One-Target Advantage

Movement times to the first target in a 2-target sequence are typically slower than in 1-target aiming tasks. The 1-target movement time advantage has been shown to emerge regardless of hand preference, the hand used, the amount of practice, and the availability of visual feedback. The authors tested central and peripheral explanations of the 1-target advantage, as postulated by the movement integration hypothesis, by asking participants to perform single-target movements, 2-target movements with 1 limb, and 2-target movements in which they switched limbs at the first target. Reaction time and movement time data showed a 1-target advantage that was similar for both 1- and 2-limb sequential aiming movements. This outcome demonstrates that the processes underlying the increase in movement time to the 1st target in 2-target sequences are not specific to the limb, suggesting that the 1-target advantage originates at a central rather than a peripheral level.     

An observation on Carnapʼs Continuum and stochastic independencies

We characterize those identities and independencies which hold for all probability functions on a unary language satisfying the Principle of Atom Exchangeability. We then show that if this is strengthen to the requirement that Johnson?s Sufficientness Principle holds, thus giving Carnap?s Continuum of inductive methods for languages with at least two predicates, then new and somewhat inexplicable identities and independencies emerge, the latter even in the case of Carnap?s Continuum for the language with just a single predicate.     

选择反应作业中的反应组织

通过2-选择反应作业的两个反应复杂度不对称（不等）实验因素考察反应组织,发现在同一作业中无反应复杂度效应,而作业之间反应复杂度效应显著。这提示选择反应是选择已完成组织的反应,而不是实时地进行反应动作组织,进而引入动作模块的概念。即把反应组织视为选择动作模块过程。其实际意义是,在操作界面的优化设计中,要提高一组同时可选择操作R中的某一种操作Ri(R∈Ri|i=1,2,…,n）的绩效,其有效途径是应降低这一组操作R的平均复杂度;如果只降低Ri的复杂度,要提高其绩效收效甚微。     

Probabilities,causation, and logic programming in conditional reasoning: reply to Stenning and Van Lambalgen (2016)

Oaksford and Chater (2014 Oaksford, M., &; Chater, N. (2014). Probabilistic single function dual process theory and logic programming as approaches to non-monotonicity in human vs. artificial reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning, 20, 269–295. doi:10.1080/13546783.2013.877401[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], Thinking and Reasoning, 20, 269–295) critiqued the logic programming (LP) approach to nonmonotonicity and proposed that a Bayesian probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning provided a more empirically adequate theory. The current paper is a reply to Stenning and van Lambalgen's rejoinder to this earlier paper entitled ‘Logic programming, probability, and two-system accounts of reasoning: a rejoinder to Oaksford and Chater’ (2016) in Thinking and Reasoning. It is argued that causation is basic in human cognition and that explaining how abnormality lists are created in LP requires causal models. Each specific rejoinder to the original critique is then addressed. While many areas of agreement are identified, with respect to the key differences, it is concluded the current evidence favours the Bayesian approach, at least for the moment.     

Fourier‐Motzkin elimination method in MOLP problems

This paper introduces a method for finding the non‐dominated set in criterion space of an MOLP problem based on Fourier–Motzkin Elimination. The method incorporates a procedure that eliminates decision variables from constraints and transforms a feasible region from decision space to criterion space. While avoiding characterization of the efficient set in decision space, it finds the non‐dominated set in criterion space. After the decision maker's most preferred criterion vector has been identified, the corresponding efficient solutions can be found by backward substitution. The method was implemented in MATLAB using a tabular form and computational experiments were conducted. The results indicate that although the method performs well for relatively small problems, it can be computationally intensive for larger problems. Nonetheless, the method is intuitively appealing and it provides useful insights into the geometry and theory of MOLP. As such it makes it a valuable educational tool for students of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An interactive fuzzy satisficing method for multiobjective stochastic linear programming problems using chance constrained conditions

Two major approaches to deal with randomness or ambiguity involved in mathematical programming problems have been developed. They are stochastic programming approaches and fuzzy programming approaches. In this paper, we focus on multiobjective linear programming problems with random variable coefficients in objective functions and/or constraints. Using chance constrained programming techniques, the stochastic programming problems are transformed into deterministic ones. As a fusion of stochastic approaches and fuzzy ones, after determining the fuzzy goals of the decision maker, interactive fuzzy satisficing methods to derive a satisficing solution for the decision maker by updating the reference membership levels is presented. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.