Empirical Bayes Derivative Estimates

Abstract

A dynamic system is a set of interacting elements characterized by changes occurring over time. The estimation of derivatives is a mainstay for exploring dynamics of constructs, particularly when the dynamics are complicated or unknown. The presence of measurement error in many social science constructs frequently results in poor estimates of derivatives, as even modest proportions of measurement error can compound when estimating derivatives. Given the overlap in the specification of latent differential equation models and latent growth curve models, and the equivalence of latent growth curve models and mixed models under some conditions, derivatives could be estimated from estimates of random effects. This article proposes a new method for estimating derivatives based on calculating the Empirical Bayes estimates of derivatives from a mixed model. Two simulations compare four derivative estimation methods: Generalized Local Linear Approximation, Generalized Orthogonal Derivative Estimates, Functional Data Analysis, and the proposed Empirical Bayes Derivative Estimates. The simulations consider two data collection scenarios: short time series (≤10 observations) from many individuals or occasions, and long individual time series (25–500 observations). A substantive example visualizing the dynamics of intraindividual positive affect time series is also presented.     

推理表征影响整体推理的实验研究

本研究采用５个实验探讨了推理表征对整体推理的影响。研究结果表明，读者在演绎推理和类比推理的条件下可以保持课文的整体连贯即整体推理，只是由于工作记忆容量有限，推理表征对于保持整体推理具有弱化作用。     

Predictors of age-related and individual variability in autobiographical memory in childhood

ABSTRACT

Development of autobiographical memory is as a gradual process beginning in early childhood and continuing through late adolescence. Substantial attention has been paid to early childhood when first personal memories are formed; less attention has been focused on the flourishing of memories from the late preschool years onward. We addressed this void with a three-year cohort-sequential study of age-related changes in the length, completeness, and coherence of autobiographical narratives by children 4–10 years. We also examined the unique and combined variance in autobiographical narrative explained by children’s own language, maternal narrative style, domain-general cognitive abilities, non-autobiographical story recall, and memory-specific skills. There was substantial growth in autobiographical narrative skill across the 4–10-year period. Non-autobiographical story recall was a strong concurrent and cross-lagged predictor for all autobiographical narrative measures. Memory-specific and domain-general cognitive abilities systematically predicted narrative completeness and coherence but not length. Children’s language and maternal narrative style did not contribute additional variance when these predictors were considered. The findings highlight that age-related changes in autobiographical memory are the results of combined contributions of a variety of domain-general and domain-specific predictors.     

Creating coherence in real‐life decision processes: Reasons,differentiation and consolidation

Svenson, O. & Jakobsson, M. (2009). Creating coherence in real‐life decision processes: Reasons, differentiation and consolidation. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 51, 93–102. Differentiation and Consolidation Theory describes human decision making as a process in which attractiveness values are restructured in order to reach a decision and support the decision made. Here, the theory was developed to include reasons pro and con alternatives and tested on students making decisions between two university psychotherapy training programs (cognitive‐behavioral and psychodynamic therapy). Before and also after the decision, the attractiveness of the chosen alternative was upgraded and the non‐chosen alternative downgraded. Different measures of evaluations of an alternative, such as “best” or “worse” converged over time until shortly after the decision. The number of reasons pro and con alternatives give a more complete picture than attractiveness and increased from the first to the last session. The reasons supporting the chosen alternative increased in strength, but reasons against the non‐chosen alternative decreased. In informal comments participants reported that the study also served as a decision aid.