Bayesian test and Kuhn’s paradigm

Kuhn’s theory of paradigm reveals a pattern of scientific progress, in which normal science alternates with scientific revolution. But Kuhn underrated too much the function of scientific test in his pattern, because he focuses all his attention on the hypothetico-deductive schema instead of Bayesian schema. This paper employs Bayesian schema to re-examine Kuhn’s theory of paradigm, to uncover its logical and rational components, and to illustrate the tensional structure of logic and belief, rationality and irrationality, in the process of scientific revolution. __________ Translated from Ziran Bianzhengfa Tongxun 自然辩证法通讯 (Journal of Dialectics of Nature), 2005 (6) by Zhang Jianfeng, proofread by Wang Dong     

Growth of white matter in the adolescent brain: Myelin or axon?

White matter occupies almost half of the human brain. It contains axons connecting spatially segregated modules and, as such, it is essential for the smooth flow of information in functional networks. Structural maturation of white matter continues during adolescence, as reflected in age-related changes in its volume, as well as in its microstructure. Here I review recent observations obtained with magnetic resonance imaging in typically developing adolescents and point out some of the known variations in structural properties of white matter vis-à-vis brain function in health and disease. I conclude by re-focusing the interpretations of MR-based studies of white matter from myelin to axon.     

Creating distinct implicit and explicit attitudes with an illusory correlation paradigm

Two studies used an illusory correlation procedure to test whether distinct implicit and explicit evaluations can result from the same learning episode. All participants learned twice as much about the qualities of one group (majority) than another (minority). In one condition, the ratio of positive to negative information was equal between groups. In other conditions, the majority group showed proportionally more positive qualities than the minority group, or vice versa. Participants in the pro-majority and pro-minority conditions formed both implicit and explicit attitudes consistent with the attitude induction. Participants in the illusory correlation condition showed the expected preference for the majority group (the illusory bias), but showed no implicit preference, suggesting distinct influences on implicit and explicit attitude formation. The effects are consistent with dual-process models in which implicit attitudes reflect accounting of covariation and explicit attitudes reflect interpretative judgments of that covariation.     

“风险”性质的探讨──一项联想测验

该实验是为探讨“风险”的性质而进行的词联想测验。实验以“风险”一词作为刺激词，让被试连续进行三次自由式联想。其结果得到了三大类不同性质的联想词及其它相关结论。     

A Statistical Hypothesis Testing Method for the Rank Ordering of the Priorities of the Alternatives in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

In analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a ratio scale (π₁, π₂, ⋯, π_t) for the priorities of the alternatives {T₁, T₂, ⋯, T_t} is used for a decision problem in which π_i/π_j is used to quantify the ratio of the priority of T_i to that of T_j. In a group decision‐making setup, the subjective estimates of π_i/π_j are obtained as entries of a pairwise comparison matrix for each member of the group. On the basis of these pairwise comparison matrices, one of the topics of interest in some situation is the total rank ordering of the priorities of the alternatives. In this article, a statistical method is proposed for testing a specific total rank ordering of the priorities of the alternatives. The method developed is then illustrated using numerical examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transfer tests of stimulus value in concurrent chains

We report two experiments that use transfer tests to investigate whether in concurrent chains the value of a terminal-link stimulus is affected by the alternate terminal link. In Experiment 1, two groups of pigeons were trained on multiple concurrent-chains schedules in which switching between the schedules was via pecking a changeover key. For one group, the terminal links were fixed-interval 8 s versus fixed-interval 16 s in one component and fixed-interval 16 s versus fixed-interval 32 s in the other component. For a second group, the terminal links were variable-interval 10 s versus variable-interval 20 s in one component and variable-interval 20 s versus variable-interval 40 s in the other. After sufficient baseline training had been given so that performances had stabilized, transfer tests were conducted in which the two chains with equal terminal-link schedules were presented together as a new concurrent pair. For 6 of the 7 subjects, initial-link responding changed fairly rapidly during the test in the manner predicted if the values of the terminal links were equal. In Experiment 2, pigeons were trained on multiple concurrent chains using a two-key procedure, and the terminal links were the same variable-interval schedules as in Experiment 1. After baseline training, transfer tests were conducted that assessed (a) the relative reinforcing strength of the terminal-link stimuli in a novel initial-link situation and (b) the relative ability of those stimuli to evoke responding. The data from the reinforcing strength test were consistent with those from Experiment 1, but those from the evocation strength test were not. Although this discrepancy shows that responding in transfer tests is not solely a function of stimulus value, the results from both experiments suggest, overall, that value is determined by the stimulus—reinforcer relation independently of the alternative terminal link.     

Selecting polychoric instrumental variables in confirmatory factor analysis: An alternative specification test and effects of instrumental variables

The polychoric instrumental variable (PIV) approach is a recently proposed method to fit a confirmatory factor analysis model with ordinal data. In this paper, we first examine the small-sample properties of the specification tests for testing the validity of instrumental variables (IVs). Second, we investigate the effects of using different numbers of IVs. Our results show that specification tests derived for continuous data are extremely oversized at all sample sizes when applied to ordinal variables. Possible modifications for ordinal data are proposed in the present study. Simulation results show that the modified specification tests with all available IVs are able to detect model misspecification. In terms of estimation accuracy, the PIV approach where the IVs outnumber the endogenous variables by one produces a lower bias but a higher variation than the PIV approach with more IVs for correctly specified factor loadings at small samples.     

中国人格量表编制的本土化研究

为了深入探究中国人人格特质与结构,并编制本土化人格量表; 本文综合QZPS、CPAI-2及CPFFI的因素命名特征,编制出包含116个项目的人格词汇评定表。通过对1455名被试人格词汇评定结果的探索性分析,最终确定7个维度的人格词汇评定量表。该该量表7个因素对总变异的贡献率为51.63%,内部一致性信度在0.663-0.912之间,总量表的内部一致性信度为0.800; 7个因素的重测信度在0.700～0.874(p<0.001)之间。研究结果显示情绪性与外向性两个人格特质是人们共有的人格特质内容,该人格量表中的其他人格因素既有与西方人格因素趋同的方面,也有中国文化背景下本土化内容。同QZPS、CPAI-2及CPFFI相比,该人格因素结构几乎可以包含以上3个模型的绝大多数人格因素内容,且结构清晰全面。     

Can implicit measures detect source information in crime-related amnesia?

Participants who are asked to simulate amnesia for a mock crime have a weaker memory for this event when they have to give up their role as a feigner, than those who are not asked to feign memory loss. According to the source monitoring framework (SMF), this memory-undermining effect of simulating amnesia for a crime would be due to misattribution of the right source of information. However, we know that the content of self-generated information (e.g., feigned version of the crime) might be preserved and recognised over time as a result of elaborative cognitive processing. In the present study, we aimed to contrast these two explanations. We showed participants a mock crime video and we instructed them to either feign amnesia (simulators) or confess the mock crime (confessors). Next, a free recall memory test was administered. After one week, participants were asked to perform a personalised source monitoring task using the autobiographical Implicit Association Test (aIAT). As predicted, we found that simulators were able to discriminate the content of their self-generated feigned story of the crime from the original version. Moreover, simulators were quicker than confessors at the aIAT task. Practical and theoretical implications of our results are discussed.