Objective evidence and absence: comment on Sober

Elliott Sober argues that the statistical slogan “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” cannot be taken literally: it must be interpreted charitably as claiming that the absence of evidence is (typically) not very much evidence of absence. I offer an alternative interpretation, on which the slogan claims that absence of evidence is (typically) not objective evidence of absence. I sketch a definition of objective evidence, founded in the notion of an epistemically objective likelihood, and I show that in Sober’s paradigm case, the slogan can, on this understanding, be sustained.

Absence of evidence and evidence of absence: evidential transitivity in connection with fossils,fishing, fine-tuning,and firing squads

“Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence” is a slogan that is popular among scientists and nonscientists alike. This article assesses its truth by using a probabilistic tool, the Law of Likelihood. Qualitative questions (“Is E evidence about H?”) and quantitative questions (“How much evidence does E provide about H?”) are both considered. The article discusses the example of fossil intermediates. If finding a fossil that is phenotypically intermediate between two extant species provides evidence that those species have a common ancestor, does failing to find such a fossil constitute evidence that there was no common ancestor? Or should the failure merely be chalked up to the imperfection of the fossil record? The transitivity of the evidence relation in simple causal chains provides a broader context, which leads to discussion of the fine-tuning argument, the anthropic principle, and observation selection effects.     

Differentiating between ADHD sub-types on CCPT measures of sustained attention and vigilance

The aim of the study was to test whether sustained attention and vigilance, often considered as the same phenomenon, dissociate on the Conners' Continuous Performance Test, and whether subjects with ADHD-Inattentive type and ADHD-Combined type differ with regard to these measures. Sixty-five healthy controls and 67 subjects with ADHD between 9 and 16 years of age participated in the study. The ADHD-I group performed below control children on Hit Reaction Time Block Change, considered to measure sustained attention and the ADHD-C group scored below controls on Hit Reaction Time Inter-Stimulus-Interval, considered to measure vigilance. Comparing the two clinical groups showed a test by group interaction, with ADHD-I subjects performing below ADHD-C subjects with regard to sustained attention and above ADHD-C subjects with regard to vigilance. Sustained attention on the CCPT correlated specifically with parent and teacher ratings of inattention, but not with ratings of hyperactivity-impulsivity, while vigilance correlated with all symptom ratings.     

Countries with fewer males have more violent crime: marriage markets and mating aggression

Violent crimes (murders, rapes, and assaults) are substantially higher in countries with a relative scarcity of men according to research using INTERPOL data [Barber, 2000a]. This is a paradox given that males are more criminally violent and likely reflects increased direct mating competition. The present research sought to confirm and extend Barber's [2000a] finding, using murder data from the United Nations and homicides from World Health Organization that are of higher quality than the INTERPOL data, and using more rigorous controls. In addition to level of economic development, control variables included, income inequality, urbanization, population density, the number of police, and whether the country was a major center of illegal drug trafficking. Regression analyses with all controls found that killings in both data sets increased with declines in the male proportion of the population. The findings are discussed in terms of direct reproductive competition and alternative explanations are considered.     

小学四、五年级数学诊断性测验的编制——基于规则空间模型的方法

基于规则空间模型, 以小学四、五年级数学诊断性测验的编制为例, 探索了认知诊断理论背景下诊断性测验的编制方法。研究发现, 基于规则空间模型编制的诊断性测验具备优良的信效度, 尤其在结构效度上具有突出优势。应用该测验对1059名四、五年级学生进行诊断测验的结果显示:在整体上, 学生对整数、初级运算与应用掌握得较为巩固, 对量、统计、规律、高级运算掌握较差;在发展趋势上, 量、统计、规律、高级运算是四、五年级之间进步最快的属性。     

铆题比例对等值精度的影响

在非等组铆测验设计中,铆题量占测验长度的多大比例比较合适,这个比例随测验长度的增大可否发生变化？这些是实际工作者和研究者非常关心的问题。该文在固定被试数和测验长度的条件下,探查铆题量所占测验长度比例（简称铆题比例）的变化对等值精度的影响,讨论了在实际等值中如何在等值精度和铆题比例之间取得平衡的问题。并在模拟研究的条件下,给出了几个反应实际等值精度的指标。     

Does Mastery of ABLA Level 6 Make it Easier for Individuals with Developmental Disabilities to Learn to Name Objects?

Level 6 of the Assessment of Basic Learning Abilities (ABLA) assesses the ease or difficulty with which persons with developmental disabilities are able to learn a two-choice auditory-visual discrimination. We investigated whether participants who passed ABLA Level 6 (Group 1) would more readily learn object naming (vocal tacts) than those who failed ABLA Level 6 (Group 2). The groups were matched on the Communication Subscale of the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale. Results indicated that Group 1 met mastery criterion for a significantly larger number of naming responses and in significantly fewer trials than Group 2. The implications for language training are discussed.     

From steroids to nation states: An integrated evolutionary approach to violent crime

Most evolutionary psychologists emphasize the individual level of analysis concerning violent crime and other dependent variables. This paper outlines a strategy for evolutionary explanation of societal variation across time as well as space and applies it to crimes of violence. The central idea is that individual adaptations for reproductive competition play out differently depending both on developmental context and societal conditions, including the marriage market. Violent crimes (murders, rapes, and assaults) are substantially higher in countries with a relative scarcity of men according to research using INTERPOL and World Health Organization data [Barber, N. (2000a). The sex ratio as a predictor of cross-national variation in violent crime. Cross-Cultural Research, 34, 264–282, Barber, N. (2009). Countries with fewer males have more violent crime: Marriage markets and mating aggression. Aggressive Behavior, 35, 49–56]. This is an apparent contradiction given that males are more criminally violent and likely reflects increased direct mating competition that evokes increased testosterone production for humans as for other species. The empirical evidence is discussed in terms of direct reproductive competition and various alternative explanations, particularly the “culture of violence” and socialization experiences are considered.     

The Influence of Abnormal Sex Differences in Life Expectancy on National Happiness

Countries with better health, as indexed by life expectancy, score higher on subjective well-being (SWB). It was predicted that deviations from the average sex difference in life expectancy (reflecting reproductive competition among males and discrimination against females) would be inversely related to happiness. Regression analysis of SWB for 178 countries found that deviations from the average sex difference in life expectancy were predictive of unhappiness controlling for life expectancy, national wealth, and income inequality. Countries with a relative scarcity of female children (used as an index of parental bias) were less happy. Societies in which there is an undue burden on the health and survival of either sex are thus unhappy ones due to gender-specific disadvantage and associated gender conflict.     

Bookmark法设置划界分数的研究述评

基于经典测量理论标准参照测验的传统划界分数设置方法是等级评分或指定划界分数,划界分数设置的方法有待进一步拓展。Bookmark法是基于项目反应理论的划界分数设置方法,学科专家以测验材料的能力参数值为基础,依据掌握百分比分数与被试能力水平的定量关系,设置多重划界分数,相对于传统方法更高效、精确。作者评述了Bookmark法的基本原理和具体实施方法,分析了Bookmark法的应用前景,并对Bookmark法设置划界分数的信效度和标准误估计的研究作了评述。