The not-so-crypto crypto-Jews of New Mexico: update on a decades-old debate

For over two decades an academic debate has raged over a possible crypto-Jewish presence in New Mexico. On one side are scholars who advance two claims: first, that many of New Mexico’s early colonists were crypto-Jews and second, that practices associated with some Hispano families in modern New Mexico reflect crypto-Jewish traditions originating in the colonial period. On the other side are scholars who question the evidentiary basis of both claims. This article provides an update on this debate by (1) reviewing scholarly reviews of two key monographs published since the debate first erupted in the mid-1990s and (2) by presenting new data relevant to the possibility that modern claims of ‘crypto-Judaism’ derive from Adventist proselytizing. The article concludes with an assessment of the many reasons why the original hypothesis has been, and will likely continue to be, popular despite the doubts that many scholars have raised.     

Written object naming,spelling to dictation,and immediate copying: Different tasks,different pathways?

Politeness theory posits that speakers can use verbal probabilities (e.g., there is a chance, it is likely) to hedge bad news. So far, only indirect evidence supports that claim: From the hearer's standpoint, verbal probabilities are interpreted either as plain likelihood-communication devices or as face-management devices, resulting in different risk perceptions. The present research aims to test more directly the postulate of politeness theory by focusing on the effects of speakers' intentions on risk communication. In three experiments, participants communicated a probability by choosing an expression from a list of verbal probabilities. Results consistently showed that polite speakers communicated a different risk magnitude than informative speakers. Further findings indicate that the effect of the speakers' intention depends on the valence of the uncertain outcome. The theoretical and applied implications of these findings are discussed.     

An Essay In The Aid Of Writing History: Fictions Of Historiography

In what follows I explore the question of fictionality in history writing. First, I venture into the unfamiliar genre of ego-histoire and make my own professional training in the tenets of positivist or realist historiography an object of theoretical reflection and critical analysis. Then as a way of dealing with the literary dimension of written history, I make a canonical work in history of education an object of rhetorical analysis. Finally, as another way of coming to terms with the fictions of historiography, I revisit one of my own productions and make it an object of metacritical consideration. My central theme is that historiographical realism alone will not suffice , that historians are as dependant upon literary invention as upon documents, that history cannot be written without the aid of the fictions of historiography, and that the difference between the historian and the novelist is narrower than we may have been accustomed to think. I further argue that attention to the literary or rhetorical dimension of history is long overdue in history of education, where it flourishes unacknowledged. I conclude that historical writing is not just a literary pastime and the issue remains: how to come to grips with fictionalizing and the truth claims of historiography.     

Absence of evidence and evidence of absence: evidential transitivity in connection with fossils,fishing, fine-tuning,and firing squads

“Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence” is a slogan that is popular among scientists and nonscientists alike. This article assesses its truth by using a probabilistic tool, the Law of Likelihood. Qualitative questions (“Is E evidence about H?”) and quantitative questions (“How much evidence does E provide about H?”) are both considered. The article discusses the example of fossil intermediates. If finding a fossil that is phenotypically intermediate between two extant species provides evidence that those species have a common ancestor, does failing to find such a fossil constitute evidence that there was no common ancestor? Or should the failure merely be chalked up to the imperfection of the fossil record? The transitivity of the evidence relation in simple causal chains provides a broader context, which leads to discussion of the fine-tuning argument, the anthropic principle, and observation selection effects.     

Objective evidence and absence: comment on Sober

Elliott Sober argues that the statistical slogan “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” cannot be taken literally: it must be interpreted charitably as claiming that the absence of evidence is (typically) not very much evidence of absence. I offer an alternative interpretation, on which the slogan claims that absence of evidence is (typically) not objective evidence of absence. I sketch a definition of objective evidence, founded in the notion of an epistemically objective likelihood, and I show that in Sober’s paradigm case, the slogan can, on this understanding, be sustained.

受众卷入及其对广告传播效果的影响

卷入（involvement）概念在市场研究中得到了极为广泛的关注,特别是在广告心理领域更是备受重视。研究发现,卷入常常影响广告的传播效果,制约着广告自身特点、插播环境、受众主体特征等作用的发挥。同时,学者们围绕这一概念构建了卷入的四水平说、加工深度模型、精细加工可能性模型、FCB网格、Rossiter-Percy网格等诸多理论模型。文章对相关研究进行了较系统的考察,并提出了现有研究依然存在的一些问题,如生态效度偏低、研究方法单一、相关的自动加工研究不够等     

Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence

The ASC model of choice and confidence in general knowledge proposes that respondents first Assess the familiarity of presented options, and then use the high-familiarity option as a retrieval cue to Search memory for the purposes of Constructing an explanation about why that high-familiarity option is true. The ASC process implies that overconfidence results in part from a tendency to fixate on the high-familiarity option, to the neglect of the other option. If this implication is true, then judgment tasks requiring respondents to evaluate each option independently should result in reduced overconfidence as compared with standard judgment tasks. Two experiments tested this implication, and found that confidence and overconfidence were reduced when respondents evaluated options independently. The findings support the proposal that option fixation contributes to overconfidence, and also clarify the limitations of random error explanations of overconfidence.     

The impact of hedged testimony on judgments of credibility

We tested whether people are attuned to critical memory factors, such as age at the timing of encoding and hedge words when judging the credibility of testimony. In two experiments, participants read a 19‐year‐old's testimony regarding a sexual assault. We manipulated whether participants learned that the assault occurred 4 years ago (when the claimant was 15 years old) or 15 years ago (when the claimant was 4 years old) and whether the claimant used hedge words in her testimony. In Experiment 2, we included a cross‐examination. Without the cross‐examination, participants rated the testimony as more credible when the assault had occurred 15 years ago. However, with the inclusion of a cross‐examination, participants rated the testimony more reliable when the event occurred 4 years ago and the claimant did not use hedge words. We discuss the implications our results have, particularly for historical cases, where memory is a key factor.     

RESPONSE‐DEPENDENCE THEORY AND EMPIRICAL CLAIMS FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

Abstract: The analysis here is an attempt to show how the current epistemological theory of response‐dependence (R‐D) may be relevant to understanding putative ontological claims of the empirical social sciences. To this end I argue that the constitutive features of human response, central to R‐D theory, can be made explicit for social science. I conclude that for the empirical social sciences the implication of combining R‐D and certain forms of statistical analyses leads to the possibility of an events‐based ontology.     

时间参照对绿色消费的影响：环保意识和产品环境怀疑的调节作用

绿色消费虽然受到越来越多的关注,但消费者的绿色承诺很难转化为实际的购买行为,出现了消费者的不作为现象。本研究试图探讨时间参照对消费者不作为的影响以及环保意识是否能够有效抑制这种不作为。研究发现,消费者在近期情境下对绿色产品的购买意愿低于远期,出现了绿色消费不作为现象,即个体更倾向于在将来而不是现在购买绿色产品。尤为重要的是,环保意识对消费者不作为的弱化作用受制于个体的产品环境怀疑：产品坏境怀疑较低时环保意识的弱化作用明显,而产品环境怀疑较高时环保意识的弱化作用则不存在。