基于坐标的脑成像元分析方法:激活似然性评估

随着脑成像研究数量的增长,研究者迫切需要一种能够将众多研究进行整合的元分析方法。本文在简单回顾了以往脑成像元分析方法的基础上,介绍了激活似然性评估法(ALE)的操作实施、优势特征、更新完善,以及其发展与应用。该元分析方法将每一个激活的坐标看作一种分布的可能性,通过特定的算法与拟合获得激活似然值,最后,将不同文献汇聚计算而来的ALE值与虚无分布获得的ALE值进行对比,以确定激活的可能性分布。近十年来,激活似然性评估法几经修正,已被广泛运用于各领域元分析的研究中。     

Modeling memory and perception

I present a framework for modeling memory, retrieval, perception, and their interactions. Recent versions of the models were inspired by Bayesian induction: We chose models that make optimal decisions conditioned on a memory/perceptual system with inherently noisy storage and retrieval. The resultant models are, fortunately, largely consistent with my models dating back to the 1960s, and are therefore natural successors. My recent articles have presented simplified models in order to focus on particular applications. This article takes a larger perspective and places the individual models in a more global framework. I will discuss (1) the storage of episodic traces, the accumulation of these into knowledge (e.g., lexical/semantic traces in the case of words), and the changes in knowledge caused by learning; (2) the retrieval of information from episodic memory and from general knowledge; (3) decisions concerning storage, retrieval, and responding. Examples of applications include episodic recognition and cued and free recall, perceptual identification (naming, yes–no and forced‐choice), lexical decision, and long‐term and short‐term priming.     

缺失数据处理的期望-极大化算法与马尔可夫蒙特卡洛方法

缺失数据普遍存在于心理学研究中, 影响着统计推断。极大似然估计(MLE)与基于贝叶斯的多重借补(MI)是处理缺失数据的两类重要方法。期望-极大化算法(EM)是寻求MLE的一种强有力的方法。马尔可夫蒙特卡洛方法(MCMC)可以相对简易地实现MI, 而且可以适用于复杂情况下的缺失数据处理。结合研究的需要讨论了实现这两类方法的适用软件。     

Transzendentalpragmatik und Diskursethik. Elemente und Perspektiven der Apelschen Diskursphilosophie

Transcendental Pragmatics and Discourse Ethics. Elements and Perspectives of Apel's Discourse-Philosophy. The author follows Apel's intellectual biography and shows the conception of a critique of meaning qua ‘reflection upon the discourse within the discourse’ to be the centre of Apel's language-pragmatic ‘Transformation of Philosophy’ (Frankfurt a.M. 1973). Beginning with an explication of the situation of a speaker/thinker, especially of the situation of a philosophising speaker/thinker, Apel reconstructs a two fold apriori of communication: Every thought is situated within the context of a particular, historically evolved, community of language and interaction. At the same time, however, the validity-claims of thoughts transcend the context of their origin towards an unlimited community of argumentation. On the basis of the first apriori Apel criticises the methodical solipsism as well as the objectivism of modern philosophy and theory of science. Drawing upon the second apriori he develops a universalist critique of meaning of relativism and contextualism. In the sixties and seventies Apel worked out a differentiated theory of the – more or less – communicatively cognizing humanities and set it apart from the theory of the causal-explanatory natural sciences, thus challenging the objectivism of a Theory of Unified Science. Building upon this work Transcendental Pragmatics, as developed by Apel and others, sets philosophy primarily two tasks: firstly, a (fallible) internal reconstruction of argumentative discourse as the (logical) situation of speech and thought which seeks to elucidate the conditions of the meaningfulness, i. e. the presuppositions, of discourse. These presuppositions comprise, thus Apel with Habermas, the four validity-claims to intelligibility, sincerety/credibility, truth and normative rightness/legitimacy. Their moral content consists, thus Apel, not only in the recognition of the equality of all beings capable of discursive reasoning but also in their recognition of a co-responsibility for the realizability of discourses and of responsibility. The author argues that the existence of a co-responsibility of this kind is indisputable because the discursive claims to validity are intertwined with a set of ‘primordial promises of dialogue’. Only with the elucidation and explication of these promises can the reconstruction of the internal conditions of discourse be completed.The second task of a pragmatics of argumentation isthe strict resp. actual reflection of the thinker upon the presuppositions of the discourse in which he currently engages. This reflection has a Socratic character and can only be done in the form of discussion and debate (‘Auseinandersetzungen’, Apel, Frankfurt a.M. 1998) with critics of the reconstruction. In this context, the author proposes a method of Socratic reflection upon the presuppositions of dialogue which suspends the usual, theoretically oriented, attitude of the scientist and the philosopher in favour of an actual reflective attitude. Within a dialogue with a sceptic who doubts one of the results of the internal reconstruction of dialogical presuppositions, say X, it is tested whether his doubt as to the unrestricted validity of X can be understood as a sincere contribution to the current dialogue or whether this particular sceptical thesis does not make sense, because it is incompatible with the role of a sincere participant of argumentation which, after all, the sceptic cannot refuse to claim for himself.Finally the author explains Apel's characterization of the tension between “Discourse and Responsibility” (Frankfurt a.M. 1988). In the course of discussions with Max Weber, Lawrence Kohlberg, Hans Jonas et al., Apel formulates and justifies an ethics of responsibility and gives an affirmative answer to the crucial question of whether the fulfilment of the moral obligations connected with the recognition of co-responsibility can be demanded within the non-dialogical circumstances of social reality. Apel's answer employs the idea of counter-strategies which are morally legitimate in virtue of their being worthy of argumentative consensus. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A policy maker’s dilemma: Preventing terrorism or preventing blame

Although anti-terrorism policy should be based on a normative treatment of risk that incorporates likelihoods of attack, policy makers’ anti-terror decisions may be influenced by the blame they expect from failing to prevent attacks. We show that people’s anti-terror budget priorities before a perceived attack and blame judgments after a perceived attack are associated with the attack’s severity and how upsetting it is but largely independent of its likelihood. We also show that anti-terror budget priorities are influenced by directly highlighting the likelihood of the attack, but because of outcome biases, highlighting the attack’s prior likelihood has no influence on judgments of blame, severity, or emotion after an attack is perceived to have occurred. Thus, because of accountability effects, we propose policy makers face a dilemma: prevent terrorism using normative methods that incorporate the likelihood of attack or prevent blame by preventing terrorist attacks the public find most blameworthy.     

Effect of Recruiter on Attraction to the Firm: Implications of the Elaboration Likelihood Model

The effect of recruiter behaviors on organizational attractiveness is the focus of a growing body of literature. The elaboration likelihood model (ELM) is a promising model for generating research examining how and when recruiter behaviors will influence job applicant attitudes formed during the recruitment process. In this paper, the ELM is described and considered in relation to variables that affect job applicant ability and motivation to accurately process information about organizational and job attributes and assess their fit with a firm during the recruitment process. In addition, several recruiter behaviors and characteristics known to affect applicant attraction to the firm are discussed in terms of the ELM.     

Power Analysis for the Likelihood-Ratio Test in Latent Markov Models: Shortcutting the Bootstrap p-Value-Based Method

The latent Markov (LM) model is a popular method for identifying distinct unobserved states and transitions between these states over time in longitudinally observed responses. The bootstrap likelihood-ratio (BLR) test yields the most rigorous test for determining the number of latent states, yet little is known about power analysis for this test. Power could be computed as the proportion of the bootstrap p values (PBP) for which the null hypothesis is rejected. This requires performing the full bootstrap procedure for a large number of samples generated from the model under the alternative hypothesis, which is computationally infeasible in most situations. This article presents a computationally feasible shortcut method for power computation for the BLR test. The shortcut method involves the following simple steps: (1) obtaining the parameters of the model under the null hypothesis, (2) constructing the empirical distributions of the likelihood ratio under the null and alternative hypotheses via Monte Carlo simulations, and (3) using these empirical distributions to compute the power. We evaluate the performance of the shortcut method by comparing it to the PBP method and, moreover, show how the shortcut method can be used for sample-size determination.     

幽默广告诉求及其传播效

幽默是广告中最常见的诉求方式之一。通过综合分析现有相关研究,发现：(1)幽默诉求在吸引受众注意、增强对广告及其品牌的偏好度上存在优势,但对广告品牌信息的加工是否存在促进或妨碍作用则尚未获得较为统一的结论;(2)该诉求的传播效果明显受到产品类型和卷入度、受众的幽默和认知需求、性别、文化差异、已有的品牌态度以及幽默的类型和相关性等诸多因素的影响。同时,目前尚存在对广告环境因素、传播的整体过程研究不足及理论总结不力等问题     

Written object naming,spelling to dictation,and immediate copying: Different tasks,different pathways?

Politeness theory posits that speakers can use verbal probabilities (e.g., there is a chance, it is likely) to hedge bad news. So far, only indirect evidence supports that claim: From the hearer's standpoint, verbal probabilities are interpreted either as plain likelihood-communication devices or as face-management devices, resulting in different risk perceptions. The present research aims to test more directly the postulate of politeness theory by focusing on the effects of speakers' intentions on risk communication. In three experiments, participants communicated a probability by choosing an expression from a list of verbal probabilities. Results consistently showed that polite speakers communicated a different risk magnitude than informative speakers. Further findings indicate that the effect of the speakers' intention depends on the valence of the uncertain outcome. The theoretical and applied implications of these findings are discussed.     

文学小说阅读影响社会认知的心理机制

摘要：文学小说阅读可以提高个体社会认知能力,但其中具体心理机制有待探索。本文通过梳理以往研究,从文学小说的社会性和文学性两个视角入手,结合模拟理论,精加工似然模型和叙事传输理论讨论了文学小说阅读影响社会认知的心理机制,并在此基础上初步构建了文学小说影响社会认知的动机-情感-认知加工策略框架。文学小说的社会性会增强读者对故事的情感卷入（叙事传输理论）,并引发读者对故事内容进行心理模拟（模拟理论）;文学小说的文学性同样能够增强读者对故事的情感卷入（叙事传输理论）,同时促使读者在动机层面愿意耗费更多认知资源去理解故事内容（精加工似然模型）,进而促进心理模拟。未来需要更多实证研究来检验这一框架的解释力,完善其边界条件,寻找脑机制层面的证据。