Bayesian estimation and testing of structural equation models

The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameters can be computed from these samples. If the prior distribution over the parameters is uninformative, the posterior is proportional to the likelihood, and asymptotically the inferences based on the Gibbs sample are the same as those based on the maximum likelihood solution, for example, output from LISREL or EQS. In small samples, however, the likelihood surface is not Gaussian and in some cases contains local maxima. Nevertheless, the Gibbs sample comes from the correct posterior distribution over the parameters regardless of the sample size and the shape of the likelihood surface. With an informative prior distribution over the parameters, the posterior can be used to make inferences about the parameters underidentified models, as we illustrate on a simple errors-in-variables model.We thank David Spiegelhalter for suggesting applying the Gibbs sampler to structural equation models to the first author at a 1994 workshop in Wiesbaden. We thank Ulf Böckenholt, Chris Meek, Marijtje van Duijn, Clark Glymour, Ivo Molenaar, Steve Klepper, Thomas Richardson, Teddy Seidenfeld, and Tom Snijders for helpful discussions, mathematical advice, and critiques of earlier drafts of this paper.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chinese college students' general and relationship‐specific representations of adult attachment: Variable‐centred and person‐centred analysis

Formerly, researchers often treated adult attachment as a trait‐like construct with consistency across relationship contexts. However, recent studies have shown that people possess multiple relationship‐specific attachment representations, and inter‐correlations among them are only in a small‐to‐medium range. The aim of this study is to test whether these variable‐centred results could be replicated in China and further supplement them with a person‐centred analysis focusing on identifying prototypical patterns of multiple working models across relationships. We administrated measurements of general and four relationship‐specific (mother/father/best friend/romantic partner) working models and indicators of psychological adjustment upon 302 Chinese college students. Results from variable‐centred analysis demonstrated the cross‐relationship variability in working models. Furthermore, global indicators of psychological adjustment were better predicted by general models, while relationship‐specific indicators were better predicted by corresponding relationship‐specific models. These results largely replicate previous Western studies, supporting the existence of multiple attachment representations in China. In person‐centred analysis, a latent profile analysis identified four typical classes of working model profiles: all‐average, all‐secure, romantic‐insecure and peer‐secure. These classes differed not only in the cross‐relationship variability of their working models, but also in their levels of psychological adjustment. These interesting patterns may have theoretical implications and are worthy of further examination.     

Understanding memory impairment with memory models and hierarchical Bayesian analysis

The study of human episodic memory is a topic that interests cognitive and mathematical psychologists as well as clinicians interested in the diagnosis and assessment of Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders (ADRD). In this paper, we use simple cognitive models for the recognition and recall tasks typically applied in clinical assessments of ADRD to study memory performance in ADRD patients. Our models make use of hierarchical Bayesian methods as a way to model individual differences in patient performance and to facilitate the modeling of performance changes that occur during multiple recall tasks. We show how the models are able to account for different aspects of patient performance, and also discuss some of the predictive capabilities of the model. We conclude with a discussion on the scope to improve on our results by discussing the link between memory theory in psychology and clinical practice.     

Sex differences in latent cognitive abilities ages 5 to 17: Evidence from the Differential Ability Scales—Second Edition

Sex differences in the latent general and broad cognitive abilities underlying the Differential Ability Scales, Second Edition were investigated for children and youth ages 5 through 17. Multi-group mean and covariance structural equation modeling was used to investigate sex differences in latent cognitive abilities as well as changes in these differences across age. Most broad abilities showed mean differences across the sexes, and all such differences varied across ages. Girls showed an advantage on the processing speed (Gs) first-order residual factor. Girls also showed advantages at some ages on free-recall memory, a narrow ability of long term retrieval (Glr). Boys showed a developmentally-related advantage on a visual-spatial ability (Gv) first-order residual factor, depending on age. Younger girls showed an advantage on short-term memory (Gsm). No statistically significant sex differences were shown on the latent comprehension-knowledge (Gc) factor, or on a second-order, latent g factor. Boys showed larger variances for several broad abilities, some substantial, but those differences were not statistically significant.     

Analyzing pedestrian behavior when crossing urban roads by combining RP and SP data

Considering the high crash rates involving pedestrians on urban roads, it is highly relevant to understanding pedestrian crossing behavior. This paper is the first to combine stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data to evaluate the impact that individual attributes, trip characteristics, built environment, strategies to prevent unauthorized crossing, and traffic flows have on pedestrians crossing decisions in an urban context. SP and RP surveys were designed and collected in Barranquilla (Colombia) near pedestrian bridges or signalized intersections where direct crossings and a high concentration of pedestrian fatalities related to traffic accidents exist. A logit model was estimated using the data enrichment paradigm. Results show that pedestrians weigh risks and costs when choosing how to cross the road. The trajectories observed in the RP component suggest that people prefer direct crossings; nevertheless, pedestrian bridges and signalized intersections can be attractive alternatives if their location matches the origin or destination of the crossing, and no detour is needed to use them. Waiting time; safety; the fine imposed for jaywalking; personal security, and previous decisions are also variables that influence pedestrian behavior when crossing urban roads. These results can be helpful to urban planners and decision-makers interested in proposing appropriate pedestrian infrastructure. The data pooling technique and the inclusion of a cost-related variable (i.e., fine) allowed computing the willingness to pay and marginal substitution rates for attributes of the built environment and other characteristics associated with the crossing decision. Also, the inclusion of several crossing alternatives and situations allowed assessing pedestrian crossing preferences under different scenarios.     

Transfer effects between moral dilemmas: A causal model theory

Evaluations of analogous situations are an important source for our moral intuitions. A puzzling recent set of findings in experiments exploring transfer effects between intuitions about moral dilemmas has demonstrated a striking asymmetry. Transfer often occurred with a specific ordering of moral dilemmas, but not when the sequence was reversed. In this article we present a new theory of transfer between moral intuitions that focuses on two components of moral dilemmas, namely their causal structure and their default evaluations. According to this theory, transfer effects are expected when the causal models underlying the considered dilemmas allow for a mapping of the highlighted aspect of the first scenario onto the causal structure of the second dilemma, and when the default evaluations of the two dilemmas substantially differ. The theory’s key predictions for the occurrence and the direction of transfer effects between two moral dilemmas are tested in five experiments with various variants of moral dilemmas from different domains. A sixth experiment tests the predictions of the theory for how the target action in the moral dilemmas is represented.     

Attitudes towards seeking psychological help among a sample of Turkish university students: the roles of rumination and internal working models

The current study investigates how attitudes towards seeking psychological help relate to internal working models of attachment (self-model and other-model) and ruminative tendencies. The study includes 589 Turkish university students (278 females, 308 males and 3 unknown) by implementing a convenient sampling procedure. The average age of the participants was 22.4 years (SD = 2.2). Participants were administered the Attitudes toward Seeking Psychological Help-Short, the Relationship Questionnaire and the Rumination Scale. The results of the study indicate that the other-model and rumination have a relationship to women's help-seeking attitudes whereas the self-model has a relationship to men's help-seeking attitudes. The results are discussed in light of the related literature.     

Theory and teen dating violence victimization: Considering adolescent development

Teen dating violence is an important public health problem, with implications for the future health and well-being of adolescents. However, most work on teen dating violence has developed separately from literature on normative adolescent romantic relationships and development; understanding teen dating violence within the framework of adolescent psychosocial development may provide new areas for research. Thus, the present paper summarizes five theories of adolescent development that are relevant to the study of teen dating violence victimization, as well as empirical literature that demonstrates support for key theoretical tenets in research examining adolescent romantic relationships. We also present questions for future dating violence study that arise from these key theoretical tenets and past empirical research. Researchers interested in dating violence victimization can use the presented theories to guide new directions in research inquiry, so that findings are situated within the broader field of adolescent development.     

Working memory retrieval differences between medial temporal lobe epilepsy patients and controls: A three memory layer approach

Multi-store models of working memory (WM) have given way to more dynamic approaches that conceive WM as an activated subset of long-term memory (LTM). The resulting framework considers that memory representations are governed by a hierarchy of accessibility. The activated part of LTM holds representations in a heightened state of activation, some of which can reach a state of immediate accessibility according to task demands. Recent neuroimaging studies have studied the neural basis of retrieval information with different states of accessibility. It was found that the medial temporal lobe (MTL) was involved in retrieving information within immediate access store and outside this privileged zone. In the current study we further explored the contribution of MTL to WM retrieval by analyzing the consequences of MTL damage to this process considering the state of accessibility of memory representations. The performance of a group of epilepsy patients with left hippocampal sclerosis in a 12-item recognition task was compared with that of a healthy control group. We adopted an embedded model of WM that distinguishes three components: the activated LTM, the region of direct access, and a single-item focus of attention. Groups did not differ when retrieving information from single-item focus, but patients were less accurate retrieving information outside focal attention, either items from LTM or items expected to be in the WM range. Analyses focused on items held in the direct access buffer showed that consequences of MTL damage were modulated by the level of accessibility of memory representations, producing a reduced capacity.