This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logic, a scenariology. Scenario planning is not predictive. But a good set of scenarios, scientifically developed, can reliably and predictably change minds. Scenario planning is both art and science. In joining the club of the sciences, scenario planning calls for a new kind of membership, or a new kind of science, one that, following Stuart Kauffman, relies on the importance of story. Hegel tells us that all stories, all narratives include a conflict between desire and the law, intention, and necessity. Scenarios provide a way for communities to frame their intentions. They thereby effect “downward causality” on the present in order to project the present toward a preferred future. In fulfilling the promise of this new kind of science, scenario planning breaks with positivistic science, but without falling into a postmodern nihilism. Without setting out to do so, the discipline of scenario planning introduces us to a new epistemology, a new way of knowing the truth. Drawing on pragmatism, Wittgenstein, and Richard Rorty, this article reaches the conclusion that, for scenario planners, the future replaces objectivity as the horizon for justification. What is true? We'll see. 相似文献
While attribution theory expects that beliefs about the origins of homosexuality are directly related to beliefs about the moral acceptability of homosexual behavior, we use content analysis of the popular evangelical magazine Christianity Today to show that evangelical elites have developed a series of anti‐homosexuality narratives that allow them to resist attribution effects. In particular, we find that even when evangelical elites have expressed belief in the physiological origins of homosexuality, such as the influence of genetics and/or prenatal hormones, their negative beliefs about the moral acceptability of homosexual behavior have not varied. We argue, then, that evangelical elites’ anti‐homosexuality narratives provide them with a strategy for influencing rank‐and‐file evangelicals, so that while allowing for a diversity of beliefs about the origins of homosexuality, rank‐and‐file evangelicals still have a viable mechanism for connecting these beliefs—whatever they may be—to negative beliefs about the moral acceptability of homosexual behavior. Our findings thus extend attribution theory, illuminate the potential power of moral narratives, and amplify the need for future research. 相似文献
In this study, we examine autoethnographic data from three critical incidents as experienced by the first author demonstrating the importance of context in understanding medically unexplained symptoms, their incidence and underlying patterns. We make the case for ethnographies as a crucial research strand in discerning the finer aspects of the patient or client experience; aspects that might be missed where people are directed along protocolised pathways of care. The article describes care as fragmented and depersonalising, leading to disembodied exchanges, as reflected in other autoethnographic studies, particularly those that highlight the complex relationship and controversies surrounding diagnostic uncertainty. We observe that psychological therapists, given the quality of the therapeutic relationship and sustained attention to the person’s experience, are well placed to assist in the necessary processes of re-contextualisation and re-embodiment. 相似文献
Teachers play a pivotal role in the educational discourse around collective narratives, and especially the other's narrative. The study assumed that members of groups entangled in a conflict approach the different modules of the other's narrative distinctively. Jewish and Palestinian teachers, Israeli citizens, answered questionnaires dealing with the narrative of the other, readiness for interethnic contact, negative between‐group emotions and preferences for resolutions of the Israeli–Palestinian (I–P) conflict. Positive weighing of the other's narrative among Jewish teachers correlated with high levels of readiness for interethnic contact and low levels of negative between‐group emotions, across the various modules of the Palestinian narrative. Preferences for a peaceful resolution of the I–P conflict and rejection of a violent one were noted in two of the modules. Among Palestinian teachers, positive weighing of the other's collective narrative was exclusively noted for the Israeli narrative of the Holocaust, and this stance negatively related to negative between‐group emotions and preference for a violent solution of the I–P conflict, and positively related to readiness for interethnic contact and preference of a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Practical implications of these findings for peace education are discussed. 相似文献
Objective: Narrative messages may be an effective strategy to increase risk perceptions and motivate preventive behaviours related to cancer. The aim of this research was to examine associations between narrative transportation (i.e. psychological absorption into a narrative), risk perceptions, and intentions following narrative messages about skin cancer.
Design: In two studies, women who reported indoor tanning read first-person narrative messages about skin cancer. We examined associations between narrative transportation and the women’s responses to the narratives, including risk perceptions for skin cancer and behaviour intentions to reduce risk. Associations between transportation, knowledge and worry were also examined.
Results: Greater transportation was associated with higher intentions to perform skin self-examination, talk to one’s doctor about skin cancer, and look for more information. Greater transportation was also associated with higher gut feelings of risk and higher worry about skin cancer, but not deliberative risk perceptions or knowledge from the message. Additional analyses showed that after controlling for risk perception and worry, transportation had unique associations with some behaviour intentions.
Conclusion: Findings suggest that narrative transportation may be an important component to the persuasion of cancer narratives. Future research should explore ideas such as the role of the experiential system in narratives’ influence. 相似文献
Twenty-six mother–child dyads volunteered to be observed interacting at home, and the children agreed to participate in interviews designed to elicit their personal narratives. Observers coded the children's compliance with mother instructions and the mothers' responsiveness to their children's prosocial behaviors. Other raters coded the children's narratives for coherence of story structure. Correlational analyses of the data sets confirmed hypotheses that mother responsiveness and child coherence scores would account for separate variance in the children's willingness to comply with their mothers' instructions. These results were interpreted within the literature on child–mother synchrony and functional aspects of children's personal narratives. 相似文献
Confidentiality has long been recognized as a critical legal and ethical principle for the committed, value‐based practitioner. Vital principles (such as confidentiality) become manifest in material practices and in the language of professional and societal narratives. This articulation into specific practices and performances requires a pragmatic process that transforms the abstract into real‐world activities. This imperfect process has the potential of including the derived practices that in certain ways may extend the principle in unintended or unwanted directions. In the case of confidentiality, the actual practices of confidentiality may be both emancipating and inhibiting – they may protect as well as isolate. Our purpose is to revisit the idea of confidentiality and to deconstruct the way it functions in both positive and negative manners in clinical work. 相似文献