Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?

People’s 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students about both the IT industry and UCSD. This within-subjects experiment showed that experts and novices were about equally overconfident. Experts reported intervals that had midpoints closer to the true value—which increased hit rate—and that were narrower (i.e., more informative)—which decreased hit rate. The net effect was no change in hit rate and overconfidence. Experiment 2 showed that both experts and novices mistakenly expected experts to be much less overconfident than novices, but they correctly predicted that experts would provide narrower intervals with midpoints closer to the truth. Decisions about whether to consult experts should be based on which aspects of performance are desired.     

短时距标量计时模型的建构研究

采用预期式研究范式,创造性地使用单任务研究程序,从心理物理学的视角,通过六个实验系统地考查了影响被试短时距(6s至24s)估计的标量特性和物理、心理和生理的信息源因素.深入探讨了注意、激活、间断和间断期望效应因素对时间估计行为的影响及时序信息的动态加工过程.在此基础上,包含时钟、累加、记忆和比较四个动态加工过程的短时距标量计时模型得以建构.     

PETS计算机自适应序列测试设计与模拟研究

根据PETS考试的特点,结合计算机自适应序列测试（CAST）的优势,该研究提出并设计了PETS—CAST测试。为了检验PETS—CAST测试系统的性能,该研究利用PETS试题的真实难度参数和模拟的考生能力参数生成相应的原始得分矩阵,并根据路径规则实现适应性的模块选择。研究结果表明,PETS—CAST所设计的路径能够满足不同能力水平考生的要求,且各条路径的测量精度均能够达到CAST考试的要求。曝光率方面的研究则说明,PETS—CAST应该在设计题池时充分考虑试题模块在数量方面的配置。该模拟研究为PETS—CAST的具体实施在理论和实践层面做了一些有益的尝试。     

The monadic second-order logic of graphs XV: On a conjecture by D. Seese

A conjecture by D. Seese states that if a set of graphs has a decidable monadic second-order theory, then it is the image of a set of trees under a transformation of relational structures defined by monadic second-order formulas, or equivalently, has bounded clique-width. We prove that this conjecture is true if and only if it is true for the particular cases of bipartite undirected graphs, of directed graphs, of partial orders and of comparability graphs. We also prove that it is true for line graphs, for interval graphs and for partial orders of dimension 2. Our treatment of certain countably infinite graphs uses a representation of countable linear orders by binary trees that can be constructed by monadic second-order formulas. By using a counting argument, we show the intrinsic limits of the methods used here to handle this conjecture.     

回溯式时距估计年龄差异的实验研究

采用回溯式时距估计的实验范式,以9s为目标时距,采用加工深度作业,考察时距估计的年龄差异。结果表明年老组比年轻组显著高估目标时距,而加工深度作业并没有影响时距估计作业。回溯式时距估计的年龄差异可能与年老被试较慢的加工速度或更快的遗忘率有关,其原因可能在于年老被试加工资源的减少。