Choice theories: What are they good for?

Simonson et al. present an ambitious sketch of an integrative theory of context. Provoked by this thoughtful proposal, I discuss what is the function of theories of choice in the coming decades. Traditionally, choice models and theory have attempted to predict choices as a function of the attributes of options. I argue that to be truly useful, they need to generate specific and quantitative predictions of the effect of the choice environment upon choice probability. To do this, we need to focus on rigorously modeling and measuring the underlying processes causing these effects, and use the Simonson et al. proposal to provide some examples. I also present some examples from research in decision-making and decision neuroscience, and argue that models that fail, and fail spectacularly are particularly useful. I close with a challenge: How would consumer researcher aid the design of real world choice environments such as the health exchanges under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act?     

What should we expect from a dual-process theory of preference construction in choice?

Dhar and Gorlin (2013) proposed a dual-process framework for understanding the effects of preference construction in choice. Drawing on the distinction operating principles and operating conditions, it is argued that their emphasis on cognitive elaboration fails to specify the mental operations involved in preference construction. This limitation makes their dual-process framework circular and susceptible to the criticism of single-process alternatives. The distinction between associative and propositional processes has the potential to fill this conceptual gap, thereby providing a more thorough understanding of preference construction effects in choice.     

Same destination,different paths: When and how does observing others' choices and reasoning alter confidence in our own choices?

Seeing others make the same decision we do does not always increase choice confidence or tell the whole story of social influence when consumers expect to have to publically discuss their choice and reasoning. Instead, consumers' confidence in their publically stated choices can be diminished if observed others make the same choice but justify the choice using different reasoning. This effect occurs because confidence in one's own reasoning is thrown into doubt, rather than due to a desire to affiliate with the observed other. These effects are eliminated in both private choice contexts and in rejection versus selection tasks.     

Young children's ability to solve spatial problems involving a choice

When do young children become able to make an adequate choice between two alternatives based on spatial information? Children of 20, 30, and 40 months of age were either presented with two objects with different cross-sections and one aperture, or one object and two different apertures. In each trial there was one object – aperture match and the task was to find that match and insert the object. All the children understood the task and tried to solve the problems but the 20-month-olds performed randomly and not even the 40-month-olds chose all the correct correspondences consistently. The results also showed that it is easier to choose between apertures than objects. This contrasts with the ability to solve the insertion problem once the choice was made. When choosing the correct object or aperture, the 40-month-olds inserted the triangle successfully in 85% of the cases. The boys and girls were equally good at solving the task, but the boys did it faster. The results show that making a choice adds significantly to the difficulty of solving spatial problems. It requires systematic examination of the objects and apertures involved, a working memory that can handle at least three items at a time, and an ability to inhibit an incorrect choice. Such executive functions are typically found in older preschool children but the present task shows that with an appropriate setup their development can be traced from a much earlier age.     

The role of working memory in information acquisition and decision making: Lessons from the binary prediction task

The effects of memory constraints upon information acquisition and decision making were examined in two experiments using binary prediction tasks, where participants observe outcomes for two options before deciding which one to bet upon. Our studies extend previous investigations to the case where participants learn the structure of the task through observation, but where information acquisition is separated from the task of prediction. Participants with higher cognitive capacity (larger memory span or higher intelligence) were more likely to adopt the “maximizing” strategy (always selecting the more frequent alternative). This finding conflicts with some recent investigations of similar tasks, a contrast that implies that the presence of feedback on choices may be important in determining the strategic actions of high-capacity individuals. Participants selecting the optimal strategy were in turn more efficient in their data acquisition. The behaviour of participants adopting suboptimal choice strategies was consistent with prediction based upon a “narrow window of experience”—that is, seeking to match the characteristics of small samples of observations.     

Evidence for Age-related Changes to Temporal Attention and Memory from the Choice Time Production Task

ABSTRACT

The effect of aging on interval timing was examined using a choice time production task, which required participants to choose a key response based on the location of the stimulus, but to delay responding until after a learned time interval. Experiment 1 varied attentional demands of the response choice portion of the task by varying difficulty of stimulus–response mapping. Choice difficulty affected temporal accuracy equally in both age groups, but older participants' response latencies were more variable under more difficult response choice conditions. Experiment 2 tested the contribution of long-term memory to differences in choice time production between age groups over 3 days of testing. Direction of errors in time production between the two age groups diverged over the 3 sessions, but variability did not differ. Results from each experiment separately show age-related changes to attention and memory in temporal processing using different measures and manipulations in the same task.     

The dynamics of deferred decision

Decision makers are often unable to choose between the options that they are offered. In these settings they typically defer their decision, that is, delay the decision to a later point in time or avoid the decision altogether. In this paper, we outline eight behavioral findings regarding the causes and consequences of choice deferral that cognitive theories of decision making should be able to capture. We show that these findings can be accounted for by a deferral-based time limit applied to existing sequential sampling models of preferential choice. Our approach to modeling deferral as a time limit in a sequential sampling model also makes a number of novel predictions regarding the interactions between choice probabilities, deferral probabilities, and decision times, and we confirm these predictions in an experiment. Choice deferral is a key feature of everyday decision making, and our paper illustrates how established theoretical approaches can be used to understand the cognitive underpinnings of this important behavioral phenomenon.     

Perceived optimality of competing solutions to the Euclidean travelling salesperson problem

The Travelling Salesperson Problem (TSP) is a nondeterministic-polynomial hard (NP-hard) combinatorial problem that occurs in a wide range of industrial domains, including logistics, route finding, and computer wiring. Interestingly, despite the problem’s inherent computational difficulty, when presented in Euclidean space (ETSP), human participants can produce close-to-optimal solutions in near-linear time. However, when asked to compare and select the most optimum solution from a set of pre-defined competing solution options, participants can struggle. In this study we investigate this paradox by asking participants to compare four closed-loop Euclidean TSP solutions, in order to determine which solution they perceived to have the most optimal tour cost. We hypothesise that the extracted geometric properties have an effect on stimulus selection in a discrimination task (selection or no selection). Accordingly, we extracted four geometric properties from competing stimuli in order to create a perceptual activation function. Predictive analytics demonstrated that a classification model could identify the most optimal solution 97% of the time using the perceptual activation scores alone, yet human participants only correctly determined the most optimal solution 47% of the time. Mixed-effects models suggest that ‘likelihood of stimulus selection’ can be modelled as a function of the weighted coefficients of competing perceptual activation scores within each trial; however only a small amount of the variance is explained by these perceptual activation scores. Finally, a drift–diffusion model was used to create a theoretical framework of how likelihood of stimulus selection is influenced by competing perceptual activators. Our study highlights a novel way of extracting and analysing the importance of geometric properties that influence ETSP discrimination tasks, and links this analysis to human behaviour when discriminating between competing ETSP solutions.