EVOLUTION IN THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE: A HISTORICAL AND PHILOSOPHICAL ANGLE

Abstract. The recently suggested reformulation of Darwinian evolutionary theory, based on the thermodynamics of self-organizing processes, has strong philosophical implications. My claim is that the main philosophical merit of the thermodynamic approach, made especially clear in J.S. Wicken's work, is its insistence on the law-governed, continuous nature of evolution. I attempt to substantiate this claim following a historical analysis of beginning-of-the-century ideas on evolution and matter-life relationship, in particular, the fitness-of-the-environment-for-life theory of the Harvard physiologist L.J. Henderson. In addition, I point to an epistemological common ground underlying the studies of the “thermodynamics school” and other currently active research groups focusing on the emergence and evolution of biological organization.     

A general linear model for estimating effect size in the presence of publication bias

When the process of publication favors studies with smallp-values, and hence large effect estimates, combined estimates from many studies may be biased. This paper describes a model for estimation of effect size when there is selection based on one-tailedp-values. The model employs the method of maximum likelihood in the context of a mixed (fixed and random) effects general linear model for effect sizes. It offers a test for the presence of publication bias, and corrected estimates of the parameters of the linear model for effect magnitude. The model is illustrated using a well-known data set on the benefits of psychotherapy.Authors' note: The contributions of the authors are considered equal, and the order of authorship was chosen to be reverse-alphabetical.     

Identification of inconsistent variates in factor analysis

When some of observed variates do not conform to the model under consideration, they will have a serious effect on the results of statistical analysis. In factor analysis the model with inconsistent variates may result in improper solutions. In this article a useful method for identifying a variate as inconsistent is proposed in factor analysis. The procedure is based on the likelihood principle. Several statistical properties such as the effect of misspecified hypotheses, the problem of multiple comparisons, and robustness to violation of distributional assumptions are investigated. The procedure is illustrated by some examples.     

A compensatory approach to optimal selection with mastery scores

A Bayesian approach for simultaneous optimization of test-based decisions is presented using the example of a selection decision for a treatment followed by a mastery decision. A distinction is made between weak and strong rules where, as opposed to strong rules, weak rules use prior test scores as collateral data. Conditions for monotonicity of optimal weak and strong rules are presented. It is shown that under mild conditions on the test score distributions and utility functions, weak rules are always compensatory by nature. The authors are indebted to Wilbert Kallenberg for his valuable comments and to Jan Gulmans for providing the data for the empirical example. The names of the authors are alphabetical; they are equally responsible for the contents of this paper.     

Should a criminal receive a heart transplant? Medical Justice vs. Societal Justice

Should the nation provide expensive care and scarce organs to convicted felons? We distinguish between two fields of justice: Medical Justice and Societal Justice. Although there is general acceptance within the medical profession that physicians may distribute limited treatments based solely on potential medical benefits without regard to nonmedical factors, that does not mean that society cannot impose limits based on societal factors. If a society considers the convicted felon to be a full member, then that person would be entitled to at least a “decent minimum” level of care — which might include access to scarce life-saving organs. However, if criminals forfeit their entitlement to the same level of medical care afforded to all members of society, they still would be entitled to a kind of “rudimentary decent minimum” granted to all persons on simple humanitarian grounds. Almost certainly this entitlement would not include access to organ transplants.     

The linear utility model for optimal selection

A linear utility model is introduced for optimal selection when several subpopulations of applicants are to be distinguished. Using this model, procedures are described for obtaining optimal cutting scores in subpopulations in quota-free as well as quota-restricted selection situations. The cutting scores are optimal in the sense that they maximize the overall expected utility of the selection process. The procedures are demonstrated with empirical data.     

初级军官心理选拔的预测性

目的：通过建立院校学员胜任特征及初级军官评价模型,探讨初级军官心理选拔检测系统的预测性。方法：某军校340名男性本科学员入校时完成初级军官心理选拔检测,毕业前进行院校胜任特征评价,对162名学员毕业后1~5年进行部队工作表现追踪评价。结果：中国MBTI-G人格类型测验对院校学员管理能力、影响力、约束力、口头表达、军人气质、人际关系等有较好的预测性,预测符合率72.13%;中国军人明尼苏达个性调查表6项精神障碍维度对情绪稳定性有较好的预测,预测符合率71.90%;院校学员一般能力倾向测验对学业成绩、文字表达、口头表达、人际关系和决策能力等胜任特征也有一定的预测性,预测符合率66.70%;三项测验院校胜任特征总预测符合率达81.70%,部队胜任特征总预测符合率76~87%。结论：为我军初级军官心理选拔提供了实用工具,为提高心理选拔预测准确性提供了科学依据     

进化心理学择偶心理机制假设的跨文化检验

通过对404例天津和432例Boston征婚启事的内容分析,结果发现：（1）男性更关注未来异性配偶的相貌、身材信息,而女性更关注对方的资源与承诺信息,但天津男女征婚者在这两方面都表现得更为强烈;（2）男性随年龄增长,会倾向于更大程度地寻找比自己小的女性,而中美女性则较稳定;（3）Boston人的配偶选择年龄空间较天津人广;（4）在个性特质方面,天津人更关注承诺性,Boston人更关注精神性与“享乐性”。结果表明,进化心理学对男女间差异有较大解释力,但对中美之间的文化差异却缺乏足够说服力。     

四卡问题的内容促进效应的实验研究

本研究设计了２种抽象材料和４种具体材料的四卡问题,对４３６名大学生进行测试,以考察被试解决四卡问题时所采用的思维方式并检验命题内容对推理的影响。结果表明,四卡问题十分困难,具体内容的四卡问题并不能产生促进效应,大学生的推理表现出“匹配偏向”的特点。     

从知觉负载理论来理解选择性注意

知觉负载理论被认为解决了选择性注意研究的早选择和晚选择观点之争。当前任务对注意资源的耗用程度决定了与任务无关的干扰刺激得到多少加工,从而导致在低知觉负载下,注意资源自动溢出去加工干扰刺激（晚选择）,而在高知觉负载下,注意资源被当前任务耗尽而无法加工干扰刺激（早选择）。知觉负载理论提出后,研究者进行了一系列研究。一部分工作专注于知觉负载对选择性注意的调节作用;另外一些工作则关注其他认知过程如何影响注意资源的分配,其中知觉负载与工作记忆负载的关系是当前关注重点。