表现性评价中评分者信度估计方法的比较研究--从相关法、百分比法到概化理论

随着素质教育的推进．表现性评价受到越来越多的重视。影响表现性评价结果信度的一个重要因素是评分者之间的不一致。文章使用模拟数据,在对比评分者一致性的相关法、一致性百分比法和概化系数等各种估计方法的基础上,提出概化理论在表现性评价中评分者信度问题上的应用是理论和实践发展的有益方向。     

幼儿说谎认知的年龄特征及其与心理理论水平的关系

研究探讨了3～4岁幼儿说谎认知的年龄特征,并在此基础上考察了说谎的概念理解水平与道德评价之问的关系,及说谎认知与心理理论水平的关系。结果表明：3岁和4岁幼儿在说谎和说真话概念的判断上年龄差异显著,在对说谎的道德评价上,年龄差异不显著;幼儿心理理论与说谎概念的相关显著,4岁组的心理理论与道德评价的相关显著。     

A formal framework for characterizing querying algorithms

Algorithmic procedures have been devised for constructing a knowledge space by querying experts. The queries submitted to the expert consist of assertions that are to be accepted or rejected. The present paper provides a characterization of the algorithms that may be used to draw inferences from previously collected answers. It is based on the notion of a closure on the set of all assertions, and its extension to a set containing for each assertion a positive and a negative instance, representing acceptance and rejection, respectively. The developed characterization emphasizes the significance of the well-known QUERY and PS-QUERY procedures. Potential applications of the presented results in contexts other than knowledge space theory are pointed out.     

Computer Implication and the Curry Paradox

There are theoretical limitations to what can be implemented by a computer program. In this paper we are concerned with a limitation on the strength of computer implemented deduction. We use a version of the Curry paradox to arrive at this limitation.     

Misreading Islamist Terrorism: The "War Against Terrorism" and Just-War Theory

Abstract: The Bush administration's military war on terrorism is a blunt, ineffective, and unjust response to the threat posed to innocent civilians by terrorism. Decentralized terrorist networks can only be effectively fought by international cooperation among police and intelligence agencies representing diverse nation‐states, including ones with predominantly Islamic populations. The Bush administration's allegations of a global Islamist terrorist threat to the national interests of the United States misread the decentralized and complex nature of Islamist politics. Undoubtedly there exists a “combat fundamentalist” element within Islamism. But the threat posed to U.S. citizens by Islamist terrorism neither necessitates nor justifies as a response massive military invasions of other nations. Not only does the Bush administration's war on alleged “terrorist states” violate the doctrine of just war, but in addition these wars arise from a new, unilateral, imperial foreign‐policy doctrine of “preventive wars.” Such a doctrine will isolate the United States from international institutions and long‐standing allies. The weakening of these institutions and alliances will only weaken the ability of the international community to deter terrorism.     

Higher-order latent trait models for cognitive diagnosis

Higher-order latent traits are proposed for specifying the joint distribution of binary attributes in models for cognitive diagnosis. This approach results in a parsimonious model for the joint distribution of a high-dimensional attribute vector that is natural in many situations when specific cognitive information is sought but a less informative item response model would be a reasonable alternative. This approach stems from viewing the attributes as the specific knowledge required for examination performance, and modeling these attributes as arising from a broadly-defined latent trait resembling theϑ of item response models. In this way a relatively simple model for the joint distribution of the attributes results, which is based on a plausible model for the relationship between general aptitude and specific knowledge. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for parameter estimation are given for selected response distributions, and simulation results are presented to examine the performance of the algorithm as well as the sensitivity of classification to model misspecification. An analysis of fraction subtraction data is provided as an example. This research was funded by National Institute of Health grant R01 CA81068. We would like to thank William Stout and Sarah Hartz for many useful discussions, three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions, and Kikumi Tatsuoka and Curtis Tatsuoka for generously sharing data.     

The Implications of Prospect Theory for Human Nature and Values

Central to prospect theory are far-reaching claims about what people fear and what gratifies them. Subjective well-being is a topic that social science has been reluctant to discuss in recent years, but it is central to much of our lives. A loss inflicts more harm than a comparable gain produces pleasure; this fact and the related endowment effect are important parts of our psychological makeup. The importance of change rather than absolute value position, and the related significance of the reference point and how it can be altered, can be seen as integral to human nature.     

Framing and the Role of the Second Actor: An Application of Prospect Theory to Bargaining

An actor's frame of reference significantly affects that actor's risk attitude. Although the frame of reference is often taken as a given, earlier work shows it to be the result of an actor's assumptions and beliefs, which can be manipulated by a second actor in a bargaining situation. As modeled here, confidence in selected assumptions can be manipulated by one of two means: changing the confidence of the actor about the future domain, and getting the actor to adopt a particular domain by discounting the utility of a course of action. Both methods force a change in the perceived domain and a shift in risk attitude. In addition to showing manipulation of an actor's frame, the model adds to our understanding of Kahneman and Tversky's original expression of prospect theory.     

Collective Action Meets Prospect Theory: An Application to Coalition Building in Chile, 1973–75

Expected utility theory explains collective action as an attempt by individuals to maximize their gains. In contrast, my application of prospect theory to collective action suggests that people are motivated to participate in collective action by a fear of loss. These alternative rationalities are considered in the context of the successful cooperative effort of four economic groups in Chile during 1973–75, the first years of the Pinochet military regime. In this case, the logic of prospect theory better captures how actors made decisions about whether or not to engage in collective action. Of the four groups that did join the 1973–75 economic coalition, only one (the mineowners) appears to have maximized its net asset level, as expected utility theory predicts. All four groups seem to have been motivated to cooperate because they found themselves in the domain of losses and expected that cooperation with other, even rival, economic groups might help them recoup their recent losses.