Quantum mechanics and violations of the sure-thing principle: The use of probability interference and other concepts

The use of quantum mechanical concepts in social science is a fairly new phenomenon. This paper uses one of quantum mechanics’ most basic concepts, probability interference, to explain the violation of an important decision theory principle (the ‘sure-thing principle’). We also attempt to introduce other quantum mechanical concepts in relation to the sure-thing principle violation.     

Using information criteria to determine the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models

Threshold autoregressive models can be used to study processes that are characterized by recurrent switches between two or more regimes, where switching is triggered by a manifest threshold variable. In this paper the performance of diverse information criteria for selecting the number of regimes in small to moderate sample sizes (i.e., n=50,100,200) is investigated. In addition it is investigated whether these information criteria can be used to determine whether the residual variances are identical across the regimes. It is concluded that for small sample sizes should be preferred, while for larger sample sizes either BIC or should be considered: The latter is the only information criterion that includes a penalty for the unknown threshold parameters.     

Interpretation of Ambiguous Information in Girls at Risk for Depression

Research has consistently documented that depressed individuals process information in a negatively biased manner. There is little evidence, however, concerning whether these biases represent risk factors for depression, as is hypothesized by cognitive models. In the present study we investigated whether a particular cognitive bias observed in currently depressed individuals, the tendency to interpret ambiguous information negatively, characterizes daughters of depressed mothers, a population known to be at increased risk for depression. Following a negative mood induction, young daughters of depressed and never-disordered mothers completed two information-processing tasks in which their interpretations of emotionally ambiguous stimuli were evaluated. Daughters of depressed mothers interpreted ambiguous words more negatively and less positively, and ambiguous stories more negatively, than did daughters of never-disordered mothers. These results provide support for cognitive vulnerability models of depression.     

Fishing for the right words: decision rules for human foraging behavior in internal search tasks

Animals depleting one patch of resources must decide when to leave and switch to a fresh patch. Foraging theory has predicted various decision mechanisms; which is best depends on environmental variation in patch quality. Previously we tested whether these mechanisms underlie human decision making when foraging for external resources; here we test whether humans behave similarly in a cognitive task seeking internally generated solutions. Subjects searched for meaningful words made from random letter sequences, and as their success rate declined, they could opt to switch to a fresh sequence. As in the external foraging context, time since the previous success and the interval preceding it had a major influence on when subjects switched. Subjects also used the commonness of sequence letters as a proximal cue to patch quality that influenced when to switch. Contrary to optimality predictions, switching decisions were independent of whether sequences differed little or widely in quality.     

1992年以来中学生心理健康的变迁：一项横断历史研究

我国中学生的心理健康状况是否真的在逐渐下降呢？为回答这个问题,研究采用“横断历史研究”这种特殊的元分析方法,选取1992年至2005年间107篇采用90项症状自评量表（SCL–90）的研究报告,分析了111925名中学生在该量表9个因子上得分随年代的变化情况。研究结果表明：(1)SCL–90的7个因子均值与年代正相关显著（0.22~0.35）,7个因子均值的增加量为0.09~0.22（效果量d为0.06~0.35）,这说明1992至2005年间中学生的心理问题在缓慢增加,即中学生健康水平缓慢下降。(2)SCL–90的7个因子的标准差与年代间正相关显著(0.19~0.38),这说明中学生的心理健康水平不再像以前那样趋同,而是逐年变得更为分化。(3)中学生SCL–90得分与社会威胁、教育状况、经济状况三方面的10项社会指标相关显著,这说明社会变迁是预测中学生心理健康水平的重要因素     

Is timely information always better? The effect of feedback frequency on decision making

Recent advances in information technology make it possible for decision makers to track information in real-time and obtain frequent feedback on their decisions. From a normative sense, an increase in the frequency of feedback and the ability to make changes should lead to enhanced performance as decision makers are able to respond more quickly to changes in the environment and see the consequences of their actions. At the same time, there is reason to believe that more frequent feedback can sometimes lead to declines in performance. Across four inventory management experiments, we find that in environments characterized by random noise more frequent feedback on previous decisions leads to declines in performance. Receiving more frequent feedback leads to excessive focus on and more systematic processing of more recent data as well as a failure to adequately compare information across multiple time periods. These results suggest that caution be used in the design and implementation of real-time information systems.     

Different ways of looking at unpleasant truths: How construal levels influence information search

When not knowing the negative outcome of past decision, people search for more information even when it confirms their negative suspicion. What drives this information search is the hope that the unpleasant state of “not knowing” ends when one faces the truth [Shani, Y., Tykocinski, O. E., &; Zeelenberg, M. (2008). When ignorance is not bliss: How distressing uncertainty drives the search of negative information. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29, 643–653; Shani, Y., &; Zeelenberg, M. (2007). When and why do we want to know? How experienced regret promotes post-decision information search. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20, 207–222]. Previous research suggests that adopting high- or low-level construals of a situation can increase or decrease the affective value of experiences [Metcalfe, J., &; Mischel, W. (1999). A hot/cool-system analysis of delay of gratification: Dynamics of willpower. Psychological Review, 106, 3–19, Mischel, W., Ayduk, O., &; Mendoza-Denton, R. (2003). Sustaining delay of gratification over time: A hot–cool systems perspective. In G. Loewenstein &; D. Read (Eds.), Time and decision: Economic and psychological perspectives on intertemporal choice (pp. 175–200). New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation; Trope, Y., Gervey, B., &; Bolger, N. (2003). The role of perceived control in overcoming defensive self-evaluation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 39, 407–419]. We propose that the need to know the potentially hurtful truths about one’s own decision increases when people adopt a low-level construal, but it decreases when people adopt a high-level construal. In five experiments, we manipulated construal levels and assessed the effects on information search and the underlying psychological process.     

Temperament moderates the effect of the verbal threat information pathway on children's heart rate responses to novel animals

Temperamental variables such as trait anxiety are risk factors in children for the development of anxiety disorders. This experiment aimed to test whether temperament moderates the effect of verbal threat information on the physiological component of the fear emotion. An experiment is reported in which 6-10 year old children's (N = 54) fear beliefs about novel animals were measured. They were then given threat, positive or no verbal information about these animals following which their heart rate was recorded while they placed their hands in boxes that they believed these animals inhabited. Children also completed a questionnaire measure of trait anxiety. Child-reported temperament moderated the effect that threat information has on the physiological component of the fear emotion. Fear information is, therefore, a possible mechanism through which temperament leads children to acquire animal fears.     

Attentional biases in PTSD: More evidence for interference

Attentional biases to trauma-related stimuli have been widely demonstrated in individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the majority of these studies used methods not suited to differentiating difficulty disengaging attention from threatening stimuli (interference) from facilitated detection of threat. In the current study, a visual search task (VST) with a lexical decision component was used to differentiate between attentional interference and facilitation. Forty-six sexual assault survivors with High PTSD or Low PTSD symptoms completed the VST with three types of stimuli (trauma-related, general threat-related, and semantically-related neutral words), to examine the specificity of attentional biases associated with PTSD symptoms. High PTSD participants showed increased interference to trauma-related words relative to Low PTSD participants. Furthermore, the increased attentional interference in High PTSD participants was specific to trauma-related stimuli. No evidence was found for facilitated detection of threatening stimuli in PTSD. These results provide additional support for attentional biases in PTSD relating to attentional interference with trauma-related cues rather than facilitated detection of threat. The implications for this pattern of results are discussed in relation to anxiety disorders that are characterized by rumination and/or intrusions (e.g., PTSD, GAD) rather than those more circumscribed to fight or flight response (e.g., phobias).     

Valuing time: Moderate download times can improve online goal pursuit

This research examines how the length of time for which a goal is interrupted affects goal pursuit, in an online context. Goal interruption duration in the form of long download time duration has been identified as a significant impediment to electronic commerce. It is believed that a faster download time is always better to motivate web users to keep surfing. We challenge this belief. In three studies, we find that, under certain circumstances, longer rather than shorter download times motivate web users to keep surfing longer. The counterintuitive pattern of effects can be explained by web users' fit experiences (Higgins, 2000) while surfing. In particular, our findings suggest that when online surfing “feels right”, web users think that online information is right.