A probabilistic model of intensive designs

Without internal validity, experimental data are uninterpretable. With intensive designs, most methods presented to quantify a design's internal validity have been subject to criticism. A probabilistic model of intensive designs is presented that demonstrates the high degree of internal validity of these designs without relying on adaptations from traditional inferential statistics. Where the experimenter is able to conform to the restrictions of the model, the equations provide an estimation of internal validity for either reversal or multiple-baseline designs. More importantly, the model provides mathematical bases for some of the common recommendations and design considerations in intensive research (such as the desirability of within-subject replications and of four or more multiple baselines).     

The Atomistic Self versus the Holistic Self in Structural Relation to the Other

I argue that meaning or significanceper se, along with the capacity to be conscious thereof, and the values, motives and aspirations, etc. central to the constitution of our intrinsic personal identities, arise, as indeed do our extrinsic social identities, and our very self-consciousness as such, from socio-cultural structures and relations to others. However, so far from our identities and behavior therefore being determined, I argue that the capacity for critical reflection and evaluation emerge from these same structural relations, the more complex and quintessentially human aspects of our behavior being explained not in terms of responses to stimuli but as choices reflecting our evaluation of meaningful or significant alternatives. Finally I provide theoretical grounds for accepting the existence of other subjects and give a holistic, as opposed to a dialectical, account of the way individuals may challenge and change the very socio-cultural ways of relating to and interacting with others so central to constituting their capacities and identities.     

Historical Analogies and the Cognitive Dimension of Domestic Policymaking

Established models of the domestic policymaking process accord some role to the individual decision-maker, but they usually fail to show how policy decisions are ultimately influenced by the character of the information available to the policymakers concerned. Drawing on one prominent model of decision-making developed by analysts of foreign policy—the analogical reasoning approach—this article proposes that individual-level approaches are most useful in domestic policy analysis where decision-makers must confront a discrete policy "episode" in which perceived levels of cognitive uncertainty and ambiguity are high. An analysis of decision-making by political leaders during the 1967 Detroit riots reveals that these leaders made widespread use of historical analogies at various stages of the policymaking process. Policymakers can probably be expected to rely on analogizing under circumstances and contexts that make cognitive demands similar to those observed in the Detroit case.     

On the identification of clinically significant client changes: Reinterpretation of Jacobson's cut scores

Cut points or cut scores play a central role in Jacobson's popular method of identifying clinically significant changes in psychotherapy. When pre- and posttherapy scores of a client are on different sides of one of these cut scores, the change is considered clinically significant, provided that it is also reliable (i.e., not due to measurement errors). This article critically examines the meanings and implications of these cut scores. Contrary to popular beliefs, they are generallynot the test scores for which the probability of belonging to the Functional population is equal to the probability of belonging to the Dysfunctional population. When the Functional population distribution is above that of the Dysfunctional population, persons scoring above these cut scores can, in fact, have much greater probabilities of belonging to the Dysfunctional than to the Functional population. Goals of Jacobson's method can be attained only with Bayesian methods. Bayesian modifications of Jacobson's cut scores are proposed, although their use is limited by the availability of relevant base rates. Bayesian methods (a) can provide information about the probability that an individual belongs to each population, given his (her) score, and (b) are expected to yield total misdiagnosis rates that are many times lower than those of Jacobson's method. Users of Jacobson's method are cautioned against interpreting ratios of likelihoods as if they were ratios of posterior probabilities.     

A cost-effectiveness evaluation of parent training

Outcomes from a parenting program that was modified to reduce costs and a wait-list control condition were compared. Costs were reduced by over 50%. Sixty-six parents participated. Treatment parents reported significantly greater improvements in child behavior problems, parent attitudes, and satisfaction with family relationships when compared to untreated controls. These effects were maintained at three months follow-up. Outcomes for 35 of the children in the sample who had clinically significant behavior problems before treatment were also examined separately. The difference between clinical recovery rates, i.e., movement from the clinical to normal range during treatment, for control and treatment children was not statistically significant. Limitations of the current study and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Clarifications on the application and interpretation of the test for excess significance and its extensions

This commentary discusses challenges in the application of the test for excess significance (Ioannidis & Trikalinos, 2007) including the definition of the body of evidence, the plausible effect size for power calculations and the threshold of statistical significance. Interpretation should be cautious, given that it is not possible to separate different mechanisms of bias (classic publication bias, selective analysis, and fabrication) that lead to an excess of significance and in some fields significance-related biases may follow a complex pattern (e.g. Proteus phenomenon and occasional preference for “negative” results). Likelihood ratio estimates can be used to generate the post-test probability of bias, and correcting effect estimates for bias is possible in theory, but may not necessarily be reliable.     

差数显著性t检验与元分析方法的模拟对比

利用计算机程序构造被试总体、模拟实验研究程序进行抽样研究 ,探讨差数显著性t检验方法与元分析方法在检验实验结果数据和进行实际应用方面的差异。模拟实验结果表明 ,差数显著性t检验与总体效果大小和样本容量有明显关系 ,但与随机抽样分布样本数目基本无关 ;抽样分布样本效果大小的平均值可以作为总体效果大小的估计值 ,它与样本容量和抽样样本数目有密切关系 ;本研究提供的实际应用数据结果可以作为研究者进行元分析方法实验研究的参考依据     

The Effect of Researchers' Focus on Interpretation of Diversity Data

Abstract

The tendency for intercultural researchers to focus primarily on cultural differences instead of both differences and similarities may reflect the emphasis of current statistical methodology toward cultural distance instead of cultural overlap. The authors proposed the cultural similarity index as a way of assessing the extent of communalities between 2 groups. The authors (a) analyzed research (T. Cox, S. Lobel, & P. L. McLeod, 1991; Y. F. Niemann & J. Dovidio, 1998) that placed a primary emphasis on differences, (b) presented alternative insights gained from a focus on similarities, and (c) explored the implications of a research focus on both cultural differences and similarities.     

Regret Causes Ego-Depletion and Finding Benefits in the Regrettable Events Alleviates Ego-Depletion

ABSTRACT. This study tested the hypotheses that experiencing regret would result in ego-depletion, while finding benefits (i.e., “silver linings”) in the regret-eliciting events counteracted the ego-depletion effect. Using a modified gambling paradigm (Experiments 1, 2, and 4) and a retrospective method (Experiments 3 and 5), five experiments were conducted to induce regret. Results revealed that experiencing regret undermined performance on subsequent tasks, including a paper-and-pencil calculation task (Experiment 1), a Stroop task (Experiment 2), and a mental arithmetic task (Experiment 3). Furthermore, finding benefits in the regret-eliciting events improved subsequent performance (Experiments 4 and 5), and this improvement was mediated by participants’ perceived vitality (Experiment 4). This study extended the depletion model of self-regulation by considering emotions with self-conscious components (in our case, regret). Moreover, it provided a comprehensive understanding of how people felt and performed after experiencing regret and after finding benefits in the events that caused the regret.     

Expanding the link between core self-evaluations and affective job attitudes

The present study examined the differentiated relationship between core self-evaluations and affective job attitudes. In previous research, job characteristics were proposed to mediate this relationship. However, the facets of the job characteristics model have not yet been assessed separately. In the present study we tested which job characteristics (i.e., skill variety, task identity, task significance, autonomy, and feedback) mediate the relationship between core self-evaluations and job satisfaction as well as organizational commitment in a sample of 199 employees. Results revealed that core self-evaluations were related to job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Task significance was found to mediate these relationships. These findings are discussed with respect to the level on which people regulate their actions.