学龄早期词语阅读习得对阅读理解能力的预测作用：初始水平和发展速率的贡献

本研究测查了183名儿童在一年级期间（学年初,学年中,学年末）的词语阅读能力（词语解码,阅读流畅性）及一年级末和二年级末的阅读理解能力,采用分层线性模型估计每名儿童在一年级期间词语阅读能力的初始水平和发展速率,以考察二者对阅读理解能力的独立预测作用。结果表明,词语识别的初始水平和增长速率都能独立预测一年级末和二年级末的阅读理解能力,阅读流畅性的初始水平和增长速率只能独立预测二年级末的阅读理解能力,但可以预测阅读理解能力在一年级到二年级的增长。     

趋避道德动机调节方式的作用

道德动机是推动人们产生和完成具有道德意义和行为的内在动因。在解释道德动机的各种理论中, 道德动机模型(Model of Moral Motive, MMM)是一种比较综合的理论。该模型透过一个新颖的视角, 强调趋避两种动机调节方式在自我、他人和群体背景下产生的道德动机。通过对MMM模型综合性的分析, 并且横向比较了道德基础理论(MFT)和行为/结果双系统模型这两个具有代表性的道德理论, 挖掘出了MMM模型的比较优势, 如强调利他、聚焦于自我的道德动机、群体道德与意识形态之间的联系等。由于MMM模型是基于西方道德观提出的, 未来的研究重点应着重于西方道德动机的心理与脑机制与国人的异同以及文化差异对道德动机的影响。     

Judgment in a dynamic task: Microburst forecasting

The major goals of this research are to (a) study professionals engaging in dynamic, representative task conditions, (b) apply lens model theory to these conditions, (c) learn how judgments are changed in response to changing conditions, and (d) utilize a hierarchical judgment model to investigate the judgment process from perception of data to final judgment. The results indicate that (a) agreement regarding inferred cue values is modest, not because of differences in perception of proximal, directly observed cue values but because of differences in inferences drawn from them, (b) agreement in probability judgments is higher when inferred cue values are specified, (c) little change in judgments occurred over time, and (d) confidence increased over time. The results regarding agreement and accuracy over time were ambiguous.     

A simple multivariate probabilistic model for preferential and triadic choices

Multidimensional probabilistic models of behavior following similarity and choice judgements have proven to be useful in representing multidimensional percepts in Euclidean and non-Euclidean spaces. With few exceptions, these models are generally computationally intense because they often require numerical work with multiple integrals. This paper focuses attention on a particularly general triad and preferential choice model previously requiring the numerical evaluation of a 2n-fold integral, wheren is the number of elements in the vectors representing the psychological magnitudes. Transforming this model to an indefinite quadratic form leads to a single integral. The significance of this form to multidimensional scaling and computational efficiency is discussed.The authors would like to thank Jean-Claude Falmagne and Norman Johnson for suggestions and advice concerning quadratic forms.     

Effects of variation in teacher organization on classroom functioning

This study examined effects of variation in teacher organization on how time is spent in classrooms, focusing on time spent in transitions and instruction, including child skill by teacher organization interactions. Forty-four first-grade classrooms were observed three times over the school year. Timed narratives of each activity were recorded. “Orient-organize” referred to time teachers spent orienting students to classroom procedures or organizing the class for specific assignments, and included instructional clarity, where teachers described objectives of activities to students. Using hierarchical linear modeling, substantial variation across teachers in orient-organize was observed. Overall, classrooms spent less time in organization as the school year progressed. In addition, spending more time in organization was related to less time spent in transition. Students in classrooms that spent more time in organization in the fall also experienced greater amounts of time in child-managed activities in the spring. There was also an interaction between child vocabulary and amount of orient-organize in the winter. Students with lower vocabulary scores were more likely to be in classrooms that spent more time in spring child-managed activities if they continued to receive substantial amounts of orient-organize in the winter. The opposite was the case for students with high vocabulary skills.     

The form of the forgetting curve and the fate of memories

Psychologists have debated the form of the forgetting curve for over a century. We focus on resolving three problems that have blocked a clear answer on this issue. First, we analyzed data from a longitudinal experiment measuring cued recall and stem completion from 1 min to 28 days after study, with more observations per interval per participant than in previous studies. Second, we analyzed the data using hierarchical models, avoiding distortions due to averaging over participants. Third, we implemented the models in a Bayesian framework, enabling our analysis to account for the ability of candidate forgetting functions to imitate each other. An exponential function provided the best fit to individual participant data collected under both explicit and implicit retrieval instructions, but Bayesian model selection favored a power function. All analysis supported above chance asymptotic retention, suggesting that, despite quite brief study, storage of some memories was effectively permanent.     

Exact distributions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha with Gaussian data and general covariance

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. NewF approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds. An earlier version of this paper was submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the M.S. in Biostatistics, and also summarized in a presentation at the meetings of the Eastern North American Region of the International Biometric Society in March, 2001. Kistner's work was supported in part by NIEHS training grant ES07018-24 and NCI program project grant P01 CA47 982-04. She gratefully acknowledges the inspiration of A. Calandra's “Scoring formulas and probability considerations” (Psychometrika, 6, 1–9). Muller's work supported in part by NCI program project grant P01 CA47 982-04.     

Predicting Change in Parenting Stress Across Early Childhood: Child and Maternal Factors

This study examined maternal parenting stress in a sample of 430 boys and girls including those at risk for externalizing behavior problems. Children and their mothers were assessed when the children were ages 2, 4, and 5. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was used to examine stability of parenting stress across early childhood and to examine child and maternal factors predicting parenting stress at age 2 and changes in parenting stress across time. Results indicated that single parenthood, maternal psychopathology, child anger proneness, and child emotion dysregulation predicted 2-year parenting stress. Child externalizing behaviors predicted initial status and changes across time in parenting stress. Stability of parenting stress was dependent upon child externalizing problems, as well as interactions between child externalizing problems and gender, and child externalizing problems and emotion regulation. Results are discussed in the context of mechanisms by which parenting stress may influence the development of child externalizing behaviors.     

读者的元理解监测为什么不精确？

精确的元理解监测对随后的元理解控制和阅读理解有重要作用,但是,通常情况下,读者的元理解监测并不精确。回顾20余年的元理解监测研究,发现元理解监测的精确性主要受制于阅读材料特征、监测线索与标准测验特征等因素。未来研究应注意元理解监测的判断形式、监测线索及评价标准对元理解监测精确性的交互关联影响。     

Archetypes as symbolic forms

In Jung's psychology, archetypes are biologically inherited supra-individual predispositions of the collective unconscious, and in this paper this controversial theory of archetypes is evaluated in the context of Ernst Cassirer's philosophy of symbolic forms. The main thesis of the author is that with the help of the Cassirerian approach, archetypes can be understood as culturally determined functionary forms organizing and structuring certain aspects of man's cultural activity, namely those predominantly non-cognitive (for example, emotional, numinous, pathological) mental aspects of human life, which remain more or less unarticulated due to their non-discursive nature. The revision the author is proposing revolves around the notion that the archetypal theory can be removed from the rather unfruitful discourse on the genetic inheritance of archetypes. When archetypes are seen as symbolic forms, Jung's theory is in a position to make a potentially valuable contribution to hermeneutical and cultural studies, as archetypes function in this new context as active constituents of human experiences, which give these experiences a non-discursive, symbolic form. Thereby, archetypes can become accessible to historical and cultural analyses, and hermeneutical inquiry into the manifold symbolism of mental (including unconscious) phenomena can be enriched.