不确定性问题解决策略研究及存在的问题分析

通过对不确定性问题解决及认知策略方面颇有代表性的研究的回顾、分析了该领域的研究特点、现状及存在的问题。     

Circular definitions,circular explanations,and infinite regresses

This paper discusses some of the ways in which circular definitions and circular explanations entail or fail to entail infinite regresses. And since not all infinite regresses are vicious, a few criteria of viciousness are examined in order to determine when the entailment of a regress refutes a circular definition or a circular explanation.I would like to thank Professors Robert Tully, Howard Sobel, and Derek Allen for their constructive comments.     

Beyond the relational principle of reinforcement

Behavior under baseline conditions in which the contingency is absent can shed some light on the individual's performance under a schedule, but is insufficient as a basis for prediction of performance. This insufficiency of the baseline data runs counter to a recent formalization of the relational principle of reinforcement (Donahoe, 1977). A more satisfactory predictive model must incorporate not only the baseline level of the instrumental response and that of the contingent response, but also the schedule requirements, the character of each response in relation to the other, and the behavior required in simply switching from each to the other.     

论医疗行为中的“可容性危险”原则

对合法的医疗行为进行认定,分析医疗的局限性和社会认知差异,认为在医疗活动中,为谋求对疾病认识,应允许医疗活动带有危险性。对可容性危险原则进行法理分析,结合实际案例,分析医疗行为中的“可容性危险”原则的运用以及司法界对该原则的认知。     

Two Theories of Just War

As it is traditionally conceived, Just War Theory is not well suited for dealing with nation vs non-nation wars. It thus makes sense to create a second Just War Theory to deal with these wars. This article explores the differences and similarities between the two theories.

Individual Differences in the Predictions of Behavioral Intentions

Abstract

We examined individual differences in the formation of behavioral intentions by American female students. Within the frameworks of the Fishbein-Ajzen and Triandis models of behavioral intentions, we measured the relative emphasis given to intention predictors for 40 behavioral intentions and examined how this emphasis was related to authoritarianism. In addition, empirical evidence was sought for the conceptual distinction between a personal norm (internalized norm) and a subjective norm (perceptions of significant other' opinions concerning a given action). Relative to low authoritarians, high authoritarians took subjective norms less into account, placed greater emphasis on personal norms, and emphasized less the consequences of action in forming behavioral intentions. The results suggest that subjective and personal norms can be distinguished empirically.     

Reviews

Books reviewed:
Robert A. Segal, Theorizing About Myth
Christopher Southgate, Celia Deane-Drummond, Paul D. Murray, Michael Robert Negus, Lawrence Osborn, Michael Poole, Jacqui Stewart, and Fraser Watts, (eds.) God, Humanity and the Cosmos: A Textbook in Science and Religion
Bryan S. Rennie, Reconstructing Eliade: Making Sense of Religion     

Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation

Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long-term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects (N=186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.