How do investors make predictions? Insights from analogical reasoning research

Previous work on investor decision making has focused almost exclusively on information specific to the company being judged. Consequently, every decision is viewed as a novel event, disconnected from the investor's existing knowledge. In this study, the analogical reasoning literature provides the theoretical support for arguing that investors frequently utilize existing knowledge as a basis for generating predictions about a company's future. The specific proposal is that investors transfer their existing knowledge via two different forms of analogical reasoning. The first, relational reasoning, is based primarily on structural correspondence between a novel company and an existing schema. The second, literal similarity reasoning, is based primarily on surface correspondence of a novel company and a previously encountered company. Our theoretical framework is tested in a study in which experienced investors predict the outcome of a novel company's strategy after reading about the experiences of other companies who implemented a similar strategy. The results are consistent with the occurrence of both relational and literal similarity reasoning, with relational reasoning emerging as the dominant approach to generating investors' predictions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

外科临床决策的核心在精于选择

造就名医是个系统工程,理论和实践统一才有功底。为病人提供优质服务,要求医生有能力对病情进行综合分析思考、辨认、评估,对诊断、治疗进行鉴别,为选择科学的临床决策提供依据。理论与临床实践高水平的结合,难能可贵的是忌粗取精、忌浅求深、忌表识里,从临床汇集资料来思考、分析,最终做出选择,再到临床上去验证,从而得出正确的诊断和处理方案。善于选择和精于选择,是临床决策的核心,是临床医生综合素质走向成熟的产物,是一代名医成长的必然之路。     

案件无关情绪和案件相关情绪对法官量刑决策影响的实验研究

本研究通过两个模拟量刑实验,具体考察了案件无关情绪和案件相关情绪对法官量刑决策的影响。结果发现案件无关情绪显著影响法官量刑。法官在悲伤情绪下所判刑期短于中性情绪,愉悦和愤怒情绪与中性情绪下刑期无显著差异。案件相关情绪显著影响法官量刑,法官同情情绪下刑期更短,厌恶和愤怒情绪下刑期更长。性别对法官量刑无显著影响,从业时间对法官量刑无显著影响。性别和从业时间对案件无关情绪和相关情绪诱发均无显著影响。     

职业决策情境中信任水平对建议采纳的影响*

研究应用“决策者-建议者系统”(Judge-Advisor System)经典研究范式,以62名大学生为被试,探讨了职业决策情境中信任水平、建议类型对建议采纳的影响。结果发现:(1)决策者的最终决策信心倾向于坚持原有信念;(2)信任水平的主效应及其与建议类型的交互作用对建议采纳主效应存在显著影响;(3)建议者信心对决策者的建议采纳权重具有正向预测作用,并削弱了信任对建议采纳权重的作用。这表明,在职业决策情境中,信任水平对决策者建议采纳权重的影响与建议者提供的建议类型(与决策者的初始决策是否一致),以及提供建议时的信心水平有关。     

变长CD-CAT中的曝光控制与终止规则

本研究借鉴传统计算机化自适应测验的思想, 并结合认知诊断的特点, 在认知诊断框架下提出了4种变长CD-CAT的终止规则, 分别是属性标准误法(SEA)、邻近后验概率之差法(DAPP)、二等分法(HA)以及混合法(HM)。在未控制曝光和采用不同曝光控制条件下, 与HSU法及KL法进行了比较。研究结果表明：(1) 终止条件越严格, 平均测验长度越长, 按测验长度最大值终止的测验百分比越大, 模式判准率越高。(2) 当未加入曝光控制时, 4种新的终止规则均有较好表现, 与HSU法十分接近。随着最大后验概率预设值的增加或e的减小, 模式判准率呈上升趋势, 平均测验长度逐渐增加, 但在题库使用率方面均较差。(3) 当加入项目曝光控制时, 6种变长终止规则下的题库使用率有了极大的提升, 仍能保持较高的模式判准率, 并且不同的曝光控制方法对终止规则的影响是不同的。其中, 相对标准终止规则极易受到曝光控制方法的影响。(4) 综合来看, SEA、HM以及HA法在各项指标上的表现与HSU法基本一致, 其次为KL法和DAPP法。     

Simulation of Preference Information in an Interactive Reference Point‐Based Method for the Bi‐Objective Inventory Routing Problem

In the research area of multiple criteria decision making, very few publications exist that explicitly design the simulation of a decision maker (DM) in an interactive approach. For this reason, we outline some methods widely used in the literature to identify common assumptions of simulating the DM's responses and the required input preference information. Our paper aims at covering the identified gap by introducing experimental concepts. Such concepts are used for theoretical analyses of a combined search‐and‐decision‐making procedure. Simulating the DM is a fruitful idea because the algorithm can be tested without integrating a human decision maker. Finally, we conduct experiments based on the proposed settings for a multiobjective inventory routing problem, which is a relevant and challenging logistic problem. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国情境下团队伦理决策的过程机制及影响因素

尽管绝大多数商业伦理决策都是由团队而非个人所做出的,但目前对团队伦理决策的研究还很少,尤其缺乏基于理论的深入研究。在前人研究的基础上,借鉴个体伦理决策和团队决策方面的研究成果,结合中国文化强调反省、中庸、威权领导等特点,我们对团队伦理决策的过程机制及影响因素的作用模式展开理论驱动的深入研究。具体来讲,将综合利用多种方法来进行两个方面的4项子研究。在团队伦理决策的过程机制方面,拟开展团队伦理决策的过程机制模型构建研究,然后聚焦于团队伦理决策和个体伦理决策的核心区别,展开基于社会决策图式理论的团队伦理决策观点整合机制研究;在团队伦理决策的影响因素作用模式方面,拟从成员和领导两个方面来进行:基于信息加工和团队冲突的成员多样性对团队伦理决策的影响机制研究,基于信息取样模型的领导特征对团队伦理决策的影响机制研究。     

Aristotle,Kant, and …Facebook? A Look at the Implications of Social Media on Ethics

The purpose of this study was to explore if and how social media might come to bear on people’s understanding of ethics. Participants were asked to complete online surveys regarding social media interaction and respond to 14 scenarios depicting ethical dilemmas. Our results suggest that social media and people’s perceptions of ethics do share a relationship. Specifically, we found that people who reported being exposed to ethical violations on social media were more likely to find our unethical scenarios to be personally unacceptable, to be of lower ethicality, and to react negatively to the content. These findings suggest that mere exposure to ethical violations is enough to produce awareness in people regarding ethical issues, which carries significant implications for ethics education.     

The Influence of Time Estimation and Time‐Saving Preferences on Learning to Make Temporally Dependent Decisions from Experience

In this paper, we merge research related to experiential learning, temporal perception, and the value of time and money by examining decisions where the timing of action (response) determines the outcome received. We predicted that time‐saving preferences and impatience would decrease maximization (i.e., taking action when it returned the largest reward), and that the constraints of temporal perception would compound their effects. Across three studies, participants undershot on average (i.e., responded earlier than the period of time during which a response would return the maximal reward) showed a preference for shorter‐delay options and often did not find the maximal reward. In addition, participants' reliance on temporal perception increased undershooting, increased preferences for shorter‐delay options, and reduced maximization. Nevertheless, participants who found the maximal reward continued to maximize at a high rate rather than opting for shorter delays and smaller rewards. Thus, while most participants appeared to have a preference for saving time, most behaved as reward maximizers rather than temporal discounters. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.