因果信息在贝叶斯推理中的作用:问题情境的调节

以大学生为被试,考察因果信息在不同贝叶斯推理问题中的作用。结果表明:(1)问题情境的主效应显著(F(1,122)=16.33,p0.05,η~2=0.120),因果信息的主效应不显著((F(1,122)=1.161,p=0.283,η~2=0.01),但问题类型和因果信息的交互作用显著(F(1,122)=4.757,p0.05,η~2=0.038)。(2)不同类型的问题上因果信息的作用是不同的。具体表现为,在乳癌问题中,增加了因果信息,被试的正确率明显提高(χ~2(1)=6.759,p0.05,V=0.607),而在中彩问题中没有因果信息的推理成绩反而更好(χ~2(1)=1.864,p=0.221,V=0.167)。     

Identity styles and causality orientations: in search of the motivational underpinnings of the identity exploration process

This study examines relationships between constructs based on two perspectives on the development of self‐governance, namely Self‐Determination Theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 2000) and Berzonsky's (1990) identity style model. Theoretically predictable relationships are found between the three causality orientations defined by SDT (autonomous, controlled, and impersonal) and the three identity styles proposed by Berzonsky (informational, normative, diffuse–avoidant) in a sample of Belgian late adolescents. An autonomous causality orientation is positively related to an informational identity style and negatively related to a diffuse–avoidant style. A controlled orientation is positively associated with a normative identity style, and an impersonal orientation is positively related to a diffuse–avoidant identity style. Participants' gender does not moderate these relationships. The findings suggest that the causality orientations late adolescents employ may play an important role in how actively and thoroughly they explore identity‐relevant issues. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

初中生英语学业成绩影响因素的因果模型

采用英语自我效能、英语学习焦虑、英语学习策略问卷,测量研究213名初中生英语自我效能、英语学习焦虑、英语学习策略与英语学业成绩之因果关系模型。结果表明：（1）初中女生英语学习焦虑显著低于男生;（2）初中生性别、自我效能、活用策略对英语学业成绩有显著回归效应,自我效能是性别影响英语学业成绩的中介变量;（3）初中生英语自我效能与学习策略构成因果-反馈关系且对英语学业成绩有显著回归效应;（4）初中生英语自我效能是英语学习焦虑对英语学业成绩产生消极效应的中介变量．并与英语学习焦虑构成因果-反馈关系;（5）初中生英语学习策略与英语自我效能共同对英语学习焦虑构成多级链式因果-反馈关系。     

Reasons for Conflict: Political Implications of a Definition of Terrorism

This essay analyzes the U.S. political situation before the 2003 invasion of Iraq and ties this conflict to the events of 9/11. The guiding thread of the discussion is the definition of “terrorism” that has led to George W. Bush's declared “war on terrorism.” By means of Hegel's dialectic logic, the essay exposes the problem offered by the category of causality involved in the definition of terrorism: Is terrorism the original “cause” of the war declared on it by the United States (as the Bush administration claims) or is terrorism rather the very “consequence” of that war?     

NARRATIVE AND MEANING IN SCIENCE AND RELIGION

Differences of understanding in science and in religion can be explored via the distinction between paradigmatic and narrative modes of explanation. Although science is inclusive of the paradigmatic, I propose that in explaining the behavior of complex adaptive systems, and in the human sciences in particular, narratives may well constitute the best scientific explanations. Causal relationships may be embedded within, and expressions of higher-order constraints provided by, complex system dynamics, best understood via the temporal organization of intentionalities that constitute narrative. Complex adaptive systems, out of which intentions emerge, have behavioral trajectories that are in principle unique, contingent, and nondeterministic even in stable states and unpredictable across phase transitions. Given such unpredictability, the only explanation can be an interpretive story that retrospectively retraces the actual changes in dynamics. Without narrative, personality traits and human actions are incomprehensible. Such phenomena do not permit a reduction of purposive acts to nonpurposive elements or of reasons to the causes they constrain. Causality does not exhaust meaning. Given the role of narratives in human lives, religion and mythology provide larger stories within which individual stories make sense. Differences between narrative and historical truth suggest how we can be constituted by what we imagine ourselves to be.     

The origins of causal perception: evidence from postdictive processing in infancy

The currency of our visual experience consists not only of visual features such as color and motion, but also seemingly higher-level features such as causality--as when we see two billiard balls collide, with one causing the other to move. One of the most important and controversial questions about causal perception involves its origin: do we learn to see causality, or does this ability derive in part from innately specified aspects of our cognitive architecture? Such questions are difficult to answer, but can be indirectly addressed via experiments with infants. Here we explore causal perception in 7-month-old infants, using a different approach from previous work. Recent work in adult visual cognition has demonstrated a postdictive aspect to causal perception: in certain situations, we can perceive a collision between two objects in an ambiguous display even after the moment of potential 'impact' has already passed. This illustrates one way in which our conscious perception of the world is not an instantaneous moment-by-moment construction, but rather is formed by integrating information over short temporal windows. Here we demonstrate analogous postdictive processing in infants' causal perception. This result demonstrates that even infants' visual systems process information in temporally extended chunks. Moreover, this work provides a new way of demonstrating causal perception in infants that differs from previous strategies, and is immune to some previous types of critiques.     

TAKING THEOLOGY AND SCIENCE SERIOUSLY WITHOUT CATEGORY MISTAKES: A RESPONSE TO IAN BARBOUR

In my response to Ian Barbour's criticisms, I first argue for the anthropological dimensions and contextuality of any theology. Next I examine and criticize Barbour's thesis that I am an in‐compatibilist about divine action. Finally I illustrate the fact that I see genuine opportunities for a dialogue between theologians and scientists without apologetics, category mistakes, or relegating theology to the fringes of science, by pointing to evolutionary explanations of religion.     

Interlevel Relations and Manipulative Causality

Summary  The topic of this article is the analysis of the relations between different levels of reality. The core argument is based on considerations of both an epistemology of action and manipulative causality as a criterion of object identity. The argumentation is extended towards the concepts of self-organization and self-regulation. Finally, several views on reduction and the problems of emergence and complexity are discussed.     

工作应激与个体归因特点关系的研究

工作应激一直是组织行为中的热点问题,但综观前人研究,很少有研究者从归因的视角揭示其产生过程。本研究从个体的应激源感受性出发,探讨了个体归因特点与其工作应激的关系,建构了相应的模型,并结合压力管理问题,对研究进行了有益展望。     

There is no 'truth' outside a context: implications for the teaching of analytical psychology in the 21st century

Humans are from birth embedded in a historical and contemporary context of meanings. This always constrains their theoretical and practical activities. In this paper, I will be suggesting that there are no guiding 'truths' outside such contexts. In order to understand the foundations of any concept or new idea, it is important to comprehend the context in which it is embedded. Candidates and some of their teachers have very little knowledge of the intellectual context in which Jung or any other analytic theorist wrote. As a result, the analytic 'founders' are often believed to have discovered 'truths' transcending the context of history and of everyday life. They were, however, as much creative synthesizers as pure originators. I propose that the components of all analytic theories emerge from their embeddedness. I contend, therefore, that the understandings of these components such as psychic causality, epistemology and identity formation were quite differently conceived at the time the analytic founders were working than they are today. I will give examples to show how the acceptance of this attitude is useful in inculcating a discerning approach in candidates towards traditionally accepted analytic theories and practices. This can provide them with a method to promote their individual creative development.