项目反应时间的对数偏正态模型

近年来,项目反应时间数据的建模是心理和教育测量领域的热门方向之一。针对反应时间的对数正态模型和Box-Cox正态模型的不足,本文在van der Linden的分层模型框架下基于偏正态分布建立一个反应时间的对数线性模型,并成功给出模型参数估计的马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗（Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC）算法。模拟研究和实例分析的结果均表明,与对数正态模型和Box-Cox正态模型相比,对数偏正态模型表现出更加优良的拟合效果,具有更强的灵活性和适用性。     

Using aspiration levels in an interior primal-dual multiobjective linear programming algorithm

We introduce in this paper a new multiple-objective linear programming (MOLP) algorithm. The algorithm is based on the single-objective path-following primal—dual linear programming algorithm and combines it with aspiration levels and the use of achievement scalarizing functions. The resulting algorithm falls in the class of interactive MOLP algorithms, as it requires interaction with the decision maker (DM) during the iterative process to obtain statements of aspirations for levels of objectives of the MOLP problem. The interior point algorithm is then used to trace a path of interates from a current (interior) solution and approach as closely as desired a non-dominated solution corresponding to the optimum of the achievement scalarizing function. The timing of the interaction with the DM is dependent on the progress of the interior algorithm. It can take place every few, pre-specified, iterations or after the duality gap achieved for the stated aspirations has fallen below a certain threshold. It is expected that an interior algorithm will speed up the overall process of searching and finding the most preferred MOLP solution—especially in large-scale problems—by avoiding the need for numerous pivot operations and their corresponding interactive sessions inherent in simplex-based algorithms.     

Marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation for the four-parameter logistic model under a mixture modelling framework

The four-parameter logistic model (4PLM) has recently attracted much interest in various applications. Motivated by recent studies that re-express the four-parameter model as a mixture model with two levels of latent variables, this paper develops a new expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for marginalized maximum a posteriori estimation of the 4PLM parameters. The mixture modelling framework of the 4PLM not only makes the proposed EM algorithm easier to implement in practice, but also provides a natural connection with popular cognitive diagnosis models. Simulation studies were conducted to show the good performance of the proposed estimation method and to investigate the impact of the additional upper asymptote parameter on the estimation of other parameters. Moreover, a real data set was analysed using the 4PLM to show its improved performance over the three-parameter logistic model.     

人工智能决策的公平感知

不平等问题是全球社会和经济发展需要应对的首要挑战,也是实现全球可持续发展目标的核心障碍。人工智能(artificial intelligence, AI)为缓解不平等、促进社会公平提供了新的途径。然而,新近研究发现,即使客观上AI决策具有公平性和准确性,个体仍可能对AI决策的公平感知较低。因此,近年来越来越多的研究开始关注AI决策公平感知的影响因素。然而,目前研究较为分散,呈现出研究范式不统一、理论不清晰和机制未厘清等特征。这既不利于跨学科的研究对话,也不利于研究者和实践者对AI决策公平感知形成系统性理解。基于此,通过系统的梳理,现有研究可以划分为两类:(1) AI单一决策的公平感知研究,主要聚焦于AI特征和个体特征如何影响个体对AI决策的公平感知;(2) AI-人类二元决策的公平感知研究,主要聚焦于对比个体对AI决策与人类决策公平感知的差异。在上述梳理基础上,未来研究可以进一步探索AI决策公平感知的情绪影响机制等方向。     

Holism and Horizon: Husserl and McDowell on Non-conceptual Content

John McDowell rejects the idea that non-conceptual content can rationally justify empirical claims—a task for which it is ill-fitted by its non-conceptual nature. This paper considers three possible objections to his views: he cannot distinguish empty conception from the perceptual experience of an object; perceptual discrimination outstrips the capacity of concepts to keep pace; and experience of the empirical world is more extensive than the conceptual focusing within it. While endorsing McDowell’s rejection of what he means by non-conceptual content, and appreciating his insight into the experiential synthesis of intuition and conception (in particular, its role in grasping objects), I will argue that Edmund Husserl presents an even more comprehensive account of perceptual experience that explains how we experience the contribution of receptivity and sensibility and how they cooperate in perceptual discrimination. Further, it reveals “horizons”—a unique kind of contents, surplus content (rather than independent non-conceptual content)—beyond the synthesis of intuitive and conceptual contents through which objects are grasped. Such horizons play a constitutive role, making experience with its conceptual dimensions and justificatory potential possible; they in no way function like a bare given that is to fulfill some independent justificatory role. Whereas McDowell focuses on how experience does not take place in isolation from the exercise of conceptual capacities, Husserl complements his view by situating experience in a more encompassing whole and by elucidating the surplus-horizons that exceed the conceptual content of experience; play an inseparable, constitutive role within it; and indicate the limits of conceptual comprehension.

Latent Class Models for Diary Method Data: Parameter Estimation by Local Computations

The increasing use of diary methods calls for the development of appropriate statistical methods. For the resulting panel data, latent Markov models can be used to model both individual differences and temporal dynamics. The computational burden associated with these models can be overcome by exploiting the conditional independence relations implied by the model. This is done by associating a probabilistic model with a directed acyclic graph, and applying transformations to the graph. The structure of the transformed graph provides a factorization of the joint probability function of the manifest and latent variables, which is the basis of a modified and more efficient E-step of the EM algorithm. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by estimating a latent Markov model involving a large number of measurement occasions and, subsequently, a hierarchical extension of the latent Markov model that allows for transitions at different levels. Furthermore, logistic regression techniques are used to incorporate restrictions on the conditional probabilities and to account for the effect of covariates. Throughout, models are illustrated with an experience sampling methodology study on the course of emotions among anorectic patients. Frank Rijmen was partly supported by the Fund for Scientific Research Flanders (FWO).     

How Risk is Perceived, Constructed and Interpreted by Clients in Clinical Genetics, and the Effects on Decision Making: Systematic Review

As an individual’s understanding of their genetic risk may influence risk management decisions, it is important to understand the ways in which risk is constructed and interpreted. We systematically reviewed the literature, undertaking a narrative synthesis of 59 studies presenting data on the ways in which individuals perceive, construct and interpret their risk, and the subsequent effects. While most studies assessed perceived risk quantitatively, the combined evidence suggests individuals find risk difficult to accurately quantify, with a tendency to overestimate. Rather than being a stand-alone concept, risk is something lived and experienced and the process of constructing risk is complex and influenced by many factors. While evidence of the effects of perceived risk is limited and inconsistent, there is some evidence to suggest high risk estimations may adversely affect health and lead to inappropriate uptake of medical surveillance and preventative measures by some individuals. A more focused approach to research is needed with greater exploration of the ways in which risk is constructed, along with the development of stronger theoretical models, to facilitate effective and patient-centered counseling strategies.     

The Importance of Program Evaluation: How Can it be Applied to Diverse Genetics Education Settings?

The role of a genetic counselor often entails providing education to patient, community and/or health professional groups. While counseling supervision assists genetic counselors to be reflective about their clinical work and to enhance clinical skills, evaluation is a rather analogous process in the provision of education. Program evaluation of education activities can be applied to provide information about the needs of the target group (needs assessment), the delivery of the program (process evaluation) as well as determining the extent to which the education activity has met its intended aims (summative evaluation). Evaluation assists the educator to assess the impact of their program and provides an evidence base about genetics education. Although program evaluation can be a complex activity, the tools are ones that can be used by individuals to evaluate single or simple education activities. The components of evaluation are discussed with reference to genetic counseling practice and three very different examples of actual evaluations are provided to illustrate the diversity of evaluation strategy and programs to which it can be applied.     

Genetic and environmental influences on the Verbal-Perceptual-Image Rotation (VPR) model of the structure of mental abilities in the Minnesota study of twins reared apart

In previous papers [Johnson, W., & Bouchard Jr., T. J. (2005a). Constructive Replication of the Visual-Perceptual-Image Rotation (VPR) Model in Thurstone's (1941) Battery of 60 Tests of Mental Ability. Intelligence, 33, 417–430.] [Johnson, W., & Bouchard Jr., T. J. (2005b). The Structure of Human Intelligence: It's Verbal, perceptual, and image rotation (VPR), not Fluid and Crystallized. Intelligence, 33, 393–416.] we have proposed the Verbal, perceptual, and image rotation (VPR) model of the structure of mental abilities. The VPR model is hierarchical, with a g factor that contributes strongly to broad verbal, perceptual, and image rotation abilities, which in turn contribute to 8 more specialized abilities. The verbal and perceptual abilities, though separable, are highly correlated, as are the perceptual and mental rotation abilities. The verbal and mental rotation abilities are much less correlated. In this study we used the twin sample in the Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart to estimate the genetic and environmental influences and the correlations among them at each order of the VPR model. Genetic influences accounted for 67–79% of the variance throughout the model, with the exception of the second-stratum Content Memory factor, which showed 33% genetic influence. These influences could not be attributed to assessed similarity of rearing environment. Genetic correlations closely mirrored the phenotypic correlations. Together, these findings substantiate the theory that the entire structure of mental abilities is strongly influenced by genes.