Peer Assessment of Aviation Performance: Inconsistent for Good Reasons

Research into expertise is relatively common in cognitive science concerning expertise existing across many domains. However, much less research has examined how experts within the same domain assess the performance of their peer experts. We report the results of a modified think‐aloud study conducted with 18 pilots (6 first officers, 6 captains, and 6 flight examiners). Pairs of same‐ranked pilots were asked to rate the performance of a captain flying in a critical pre‐recorded simulator scenario. Findings reveal (a) considerable variance within performance categories, (b) differences in the process used as evidence in support of a performance rating, (c) different numbers and types of facts (cues) identified, and (d) differences in how specific performance events affect choice of performance category and gravity of performance assessment. Such variance is consistent with low inter‐rater reliability. Because raters exhibited good, albeit imprecise, reasons and facts, a fuzzy mathematical model of performance rating was developed. The model provides good agreement with observed variations.     

Revisiting the rise and fall of false recall: Presentation rate effects depend on retention interval

Leading theories of false memory predict that veridical and false recall of lists of semantically associated words can be dissociated by varying the presentation speed during study. Specifically, as presentation rate increases from milliseconds to seconds, veridical recall is predicted to increase monotonically while false recall is predicted to show a rapid rise and then a slow decrease—a pattern shown by McDermott and Watson (2001) in a study using immediate recall tests. In three experiments we tested the generality of the effects of rapid presentation rates on veridical and false memory. In Experiments 1 and 2 participants exhibited high levels of false recall on a delayed recall test, even for very fast stimulus onset asynchronies (SOA)—contrary to predictions from leading theories of false memory. When we switched to an immediate recall test in Experiment 3 we replicated the pattern predicted by the theories and observed by McDermott and Watson. Follow-up analyses further showed that the relative output position of false recalls is not affected by presentation rate, contrary to predictions from fuzzy trace theory. Implications for theories of false memory, including activation monitoring theory and fuzzy trace theory, are discussed.     

Mathematical concepts for analyzing ambiguous situations

Abstract

We examine some mathematical tools for dealing with ambiguous situations. The main tool is the use of non-standard logic with truth-values in what is called a locale. This approach is related to fuzzy set theory, which we briefly discuss. We also consider probabilistic concepts. We include specific examples and describe the way a researcher can set up a suitable locale to analyse a concrete situation.     

Categoricity Theorems and Conceptions of Set

Two models of second-order ZFC need not be isomorphic to each other, but at least one is isomorphic to an initial segment of the other. The situation is subtler for impure set theory, but Vann McGee has recently proved a categoricity result for second-order ZFCU plus the axiom that the urelements form a set. Two models of this theory with the same universe of discourse need not be isomorphic to each other, but the pure sets of one are isomorphic to the pure sets of the other.This paper argues that similar results obtain for considerably weaker second-order axiomatizations of impure set theory that are in line with two different conceptions of set, the iterative conception and the limitation of size doctrine.     

幼儿在集合比较中运用数数的实验研究

本研究中运用了两个实验探讨数数干预和测查条件对儿童在集合比较中运用数数的影响。干预对3岁儿童(M=3：9)没有影响。在平均年龄为4岁4个月时．干预组儿童比控制组儿童更倾向于用数数比较集合．自然组儿童也比传统组更倾向于用数数。许多4岁儿童在无干预时不用数数可能是因为,1)不知数数比视觉性比较更有效,或2)他们在集合比较中的数数极易受测查情景因素的影响。儿童在集合比较中的数数运用与他们的数数水平密切关联。     

The Undecidability of Grisin's Set Theory

We investigate a contractionless naive set theory, due to Grisin [11]. We prove that the theory is undecidable.     

Elementary Extensions of External Classes in a Nonstandard Universe

In continuation of our study of HST, Hrbaek set theory (a nonstandard set theory which includes, in particular, the ZFC Replacement and Separation schemata in the st--language, and Saturation for well-orderable families of internal sets), we consider the problem of existence of elementary extensions of inner "external" subclasses of the HST universe.We show that, given a standard cardinal , any set R * generates an "internal" class S(R) of all sets standard relatively to elements of R, and an "external" class L[S(R)] of all sets constructible (in a sense close to the Gödel constructibility) from sets in S(R). We prove that under some mild saturation-like requirements for R the class L[S(R)] models a certain -version of HST including the principle of +-saturation; moreover, in this case L[S(R)] is an elementary extension of L[S(R)] in the st--language whenever sets R R satisfy the requirements.     

A Very Strong Set Theory?

Studia Logica - Using two distinct membership symbols makes possible to base set theory on one general axiom schema of comprehension. Is the resulting system consistent? Can set theory and...     

Multi‐set factor analysis by means of Parafac2

We consider multi‐set data consisting of observations, k = 1,…, K (e.g., subject scores), on J variables in K different samples. We introduce a factor model for the J × J covariance matrices , k = 1,…, K, where the common part is modelled by Parafac2 and the unique variances , k = 1,…, K, are diagonal. The Parafac2 model implies a common loadings matrix that is rescaled for each k, and a common factor correlation matrix. We estimate the unique variances by minimum rank factor analysis on for each k. The factors can be chosen orthogonal or oblique. We present a novel algorithm to estimate the Parafac2 part and demonstrate its performance in a simulation study. Also, we fit our model to a data set in the literature. Our model is easy to estimate and interpret. The unique variances, the factor correlation matrix and the communalities are guaranteed to be proper, and a percentage of explained common variance can be computed for each k. Also, the Parafac2 part is rotationally unique under mild conditions.     

Extending Standard Models of ZFC to Models of Nonstandard Set Theories

We study those models of ZFCwhich are embeddable, as the class of all standard sets, in a model of internal set theory >ISTor models of some other nonstandard set theories. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.