Optimism for the World’s Future versus the Personal Future: Application to Environmental Attitudes

Optimism and pessimism for the future have been widely studied, but little is known about distinctions among types of optimism. In the present work optimism for the personal future and optimism for a more global world’s future were shown to be related yet distinct variables among responses from 156 undergraduate students. Furthermore, World Optimism predicted lower levels of pro-environmental attitudes (the New Ecological Paradigm) whereas Personal Optimism did not after its shared variance with World Optimism was removed. Personal Optimism (but not World Optimism) was associated with Consideration of Future Consequences, a measure of locus of control, and other measures of optimism and pessimism. Discussion addresses this distinction and its implications for understanding environmental attitudes and other individual differences.     

The development and coherence of future-oriented behaviors during the preschool years

Although previous research has identified a number of interesting aspects of future thinking in adults, little is known about the developmental trajectory and coherence of future-oriented behaviors during early childhood. The primary goal of this study was to explore these issues by administering a battery of tasks assessing different aspects of future thinking, including mental time travel, delay of gratification, planning, and prospective memory, to 72 preschoolers. Results revealed that performance on all of the tasks increased significantly between 3 and 5 years of age. Although most tasks were correlated, suggesting “behavioral” coherence, many of these significant correlations dropped out once age and receptive vocabulary were controlled. These results are discussed with respect to theories about, and measurement of, future orientation.     

Future prediction with automatically extracted morphosemantic patterns

In the following paper, we investigated the usefulness of future reference sentence patterns in the prediction of the unfolding of future events. To obtain such patterns we first collected sentences that have any reference to the future from newspapers and Web news. Based on this collection, we developed a novel method for automatic extraction of frequent patterns from such sentences. The extracted patterns, consisting of multilayer semantic information and morphological information, were implemented in the formation of a general model of linguistically expressed future. To fully assess the performance of the proposed method we performed a number of evaluation experiments. In the first experiment, we evaluated the automatic extraction of future reference sentence patterns with the proposed extraction algorithm. In the second set of experiments, we estimated the effectiveness of those patterns and applied them to automatically classify sentences into future referring and other. The final model was then tested for performance in retrieving a new set of future reference sentences from a large news corpus. The obtained results confirmed that the proposed method outperformed state-of-the-art method in fully automatic retrieval of future reference sentences. Lastly, we applied the method in practice to confirm its usefulness in two tasks. The first is to support human readers in the everyday prediction of unfolding future events. In the second task, we developed a fully automatic prototype method for future prediction and tested its performance using the tasks included in the official Future Prediction Competence Test. The results indicate that the prototype system outperforms natural human foreseeing capability.     

未来自我连续性对不诚信行为的影响:一个有调节的中介模型

着眼于长期收益的跨期决策风格如何影响当下不诚信行为是决策研究的重要主题之一。研究着意探讨未来自我连续性对不诚信行为的规约作用及其条件。结果发现,(1)未来自我连续性高的人,更不能容忍不诚信行为,不诚信行为的意向更弱;(2)考虑未来后果在未来自我连续性与不诚信行为之间起中介作用,未来自我连续性越高的人,越多考虑行为的未来结果,不诚信行为的概率越低;(3)熟人/陌生人情境对未来自我连续性与考虑未来后果间关系发挥调节作用,熟人情境下,未来自我连续性高的人也会更多考虑行为的未来后果。这些发现对于理解自我连续性的行为规约功能和基于个体跨期选择助推诚信环境营造具有借鉴意义。     

A Primer of Civilization

All past civilizations came to an end for various reasons. We should not assume we are different. Besides the possibility of internal decline, there are threats such as the possibility of nuclear war or a sizable asteroid hitting the earth. While community knowledge of social insects is in their genes, ours is in print computers, etc. Loss of access to this knowledge would be catastrophic for future generations. What might be available would be of little help. In the Dark Ages, monasteries were the guardians of knowledge. We have no equivalent. What is needed is a durable, easily accessible survival manual; it would help restore science as a part our culture and be passed down as an inheritance to future generations.     

Personality and behavioral outcomes associated with risk-taking are accurately inferred from faces

Growing evidence suggests that people are able to accurately infer some personality traits and behavioral outcomes from facial photographs. However, little research has examined whether people are able to accurately infer personality traits or behavioral outcomes associated with risk-taking. In this study, we examined whether people were able to accurately infer, on average, others’ personality traits associated with risk-taking from facial photographs. We further examined whether such first impressions were associated with relevant and important behavioral outcomes—specifically, future discounting and gambling and problem gambling tendencies. Results suggest that people are able to accurately infer, on average, some personality traits and behavioral outcomes associated with risk-taking from faces.     

Forecasting and Ethical Decision Making: What Matters?

This study examined how the number and types of consequences considered are related to forecasting and ethical decision making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to forecast potential outcomes and make a decision about each problem. Performance pressure was manipulated by ostensibly making rewards contingent on good problem-solving performance. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical consequences of the problem and consequences for others were associated with both higher quality forecasts and more ethical decisions. In addition, the identification of a larger number of consequences was negatively associated with ethical decision making. Performance pressure did not impact forecast quality or ethicality of decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Implicit measurement of positive and negative future thinking as a predictor of depressive symptoms and hopelessness

Research using explicit measures has linked decreased positive future thinking, but not increased negative future thinking, with clinical depression. However, individuals may be unable or unwilling to express thoughts about the future, and can be unaware of implicit beliefs that can influence their behavior. Implicit measures of cognition may shed light on the role of future thinking in depression. To our knowledge, the current study presents the first implicit measure of positive and negative future thinking. A sample of 71 volunteers (38 healthy; 33 with sub-clinical depression) completed both implicit and explicit measures of positive and negative future thinking. The findings indicate differences in the evaluation of both positive and negative future events between the two groups. However, group differences were more pronounced on the implicit measure. These findings point to the potential utility of an implicit measure of future thinking in mental health research and clinical practice.     

Sharing Knowledge and Shared Care

Summary

This concluding article presents the main themes that emerged from this volume within a multidimensional, multidisciplinary integrative framework conceptualizing the consequences of the trauma of terrorism and informing optimal prevention and intervention methods. It reviews short- and long-term findings of the effects of terrorism on adults, children, families, communities, and societies and makes numerous research recommendations. Viewing terrorism as psychological warfare against the community, it advances community-based, culturally congruent interventions, with a public mental health approach, in an ongoing, integrated network of services promoting community and individual resilience, specialized training, international collaboration, and continued dialogue concerning the role of the media.