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491.
    
The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the conjunctive probability P(AB) to be greater than a constituent probability P(A), contrary to the norms of probability theory. This fallacy is a reliable, consistent and systematic part of people's probability judgements, attested in many studies over at least 40 years. For some events, these fallacies occur very frequently in people's judgements (at rates of 80% or more), while for other events, the fallacies are very rare (occurring at rates of 10% or less). This wide range of fallacy rates presents a challenge for current theories of the conjunction fallacy. We show how this wide range of observed fallacy rates can be explained by a simple model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise in the reasoning process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
492.
    
Two experiments investigated the contribution of lexical knowledge to processing nasal flap variants (e.g. “mental” produced as “mennle”). High and low variant production frequency nasal flap words and nonword counterparts were presented in a “t” detection task. More “t” detections were found in high than low variant frequency nasal flap words; no difference was found in control nasal flap nonwords but control nonwords with a nasal had more “t” detections than nonwords without a nasal. The findings suggest that access to lexical knowledge of an alternative NT pronunciation is modulated by variant frequency of the reduced form and pre-lexical phonotactic knowledge.  相似文献   
493.
    
Monika Gruber 《Theoria》2017,83(3):225-248
In spite of his tragically short life, Ramsey made extensive contributions in the fields of mathematics, logic, economics and philosophy. In this article we focus on Ramsey's investigations into the notions of belief and judgement, their truth conditions and probability theory. We show that the central role given by Ramsey to belief and action together with his pragmatism allows for a new interpretation of the theories of truth and probability, paving the way for a modern decision theory.  相似文献   
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496.
    
Maladaptive emotional reactivity and dysfunctional communication during couple conflict are both destructive to couple functioning, and observational research has elucidated how conflict escalates. However, much of the evidence is based on measures that combine content (i.e., what was said) and the emotion with which it was said, which are then examined using sequential analyses. Despite the general presumptions about underlying emotional reactivity and escalation in negative emotions as part of relationship distress and deterioration, little empirical data are available that directly examine these continuous shifts in emotions. The current study examined concurrent and longitudinal associations between relationship satisfaction and trajectories of change in vocally expressed emotional arousal during couple conflict in 62 couples who participated in a relationship education program. Contrary to expectations and patterns found in distressed couples, trajectories followed a U‐shape rather than an inverted U‐shape curve, with steeper and more persistent decreases in emotional arousal predicting more stable relationship satisfaction over time. In addition, there were within‐couple effects. These results suggest that early signs for relationship deterioration may be less in the form of overt escalation as would be seen in distressed couples. Instead, couples who subsequently deteriorate more are less effective in calming emotional arousal. They also are less able to remain at lower emotional arousal. It is possible that the more pronounced escalation toward the end of the conversation in more at‐risk couples is a precursor of the greater escalation patterns seen in distressed couples; this should be examined empirically. Limitations and implications are discussed.  相似文献   
497.
Two studies aimed to examine whether high socially anxious individuals are more likely to negatively interpret ambiguous social scenarios and facial expressions compared to low socially anxious individuals. We also examined whether interpretation bias serves as a mediator of the relationship between trait social anxiety and state anxiety responses, in particular current state anxiety, bodily sensations, and perceived probability and cost of negative evaluation pertaining to a speech task. Study 1 used ambiguous social scenarios and Study 2 used ambiguous facial expressions as stimuli to objectively assess interpretation bias. Undergraduate students with high and low social anxiety completed measures of state anxiety responses at three time points: baseline, after the interpretation bias task, and after the preparation for an impromptu speech. Results showed that high socially anxious individuals were more likely to endorse threat interpretations for ambiguous social scenarios and to interpret ambiguous faces as negative than low socially anxious individuals. Furthermore, negative interpretations mediated the relationship between trait social anxiety and perceived probability of negative evaluation pertaining to the speech task in Study 1 but not Study 2. The present studies provide new insight into the role of interpretation bias in social anxiety.  相似文献   
498.
    
We advocate for rank‐permutation tests as the best choice for null‐hypothesis significance testing of behavioral data, because these tests require neither distributional assumptions about the populations from which our data were drawn nor the measurement assumption that our data are measured on an interval scale. We provide an algorithm that enables exact‐probability versions of such tests without recourse to either large‐sample approximation or resampling approaches. We particularly consider a rank‐permutation test for monotonic trend, and provide an extension of this test that allows unequal number of data points, or observations, for each subject. We provide an extended table of critical values of the test statistic for this test, and both a spreadsheet implementation and an Oracle® Java Web Start application to generate other critical values at https://sites.google.com/a/eastbayspecialists.co.nz/rank-permutation/ .  相似文献   
499.
The Remote Associates Test is a well‐established measure, frequently used to assess individuals’ creative abilities, as a function of the ability to elicit remote associates. The nature of the involved associative processes is still poorly understood. This hampers a deeper understanding of the creative process, rendering it difficult to determine what factors are controlled for, when the RAT is employed. We report an experiment that sheds further light on the nature of the associative process by manipulating (a) the frequency with which a pair of items are associated as associative strength, and (b) the probability of reaching the answer given the strength and the spread. Experimental results indicate a clear and surprisingly separate influence of frequency and probability on accuracy and response times. Frequency and probability both are thus factors that need to be included in the modeling process and controlled for when using the RAT to assess creativity.  相似文献   
500.
Reasoning about complex probabilistic concepts in childhood   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The competencies of children, particularly their understanding of the more complex probabilistic concepts, have not been thoroughly investigated. In the present study participants were required to choose the more likely of two events, a single event, and a joint event (conjunctive or disjunctive). It was predicted that the operation of the representativeness heuristic would result in erroneous judgements when children compared an unlikely component event with a likely-unlikely conjunction (the conjunction fallacy) and when a likely component event was compared to a likely-unlikely disjunction. The results supported the first prediction with both older children aged between 9 and 10 years and younger children aged between 4 and 5 committing the conjunction fallacy. However, the second prediction was not confirmed. It is proposed that the basis of representativeness judgements may differ between the conjunctive and disjunctive cases with absolute frequency information possibly playing a differential role.  相似文献   
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