Money does not stink: Using unpleasant odors as stimulus material changes risky decision making

Odors are strong elicitors of affect, and they play an important role in guiding human behavior, such as avoiding fire or spoiled food. However, little is known about how risky decision making changes when stimuli are olfactory. We investigated this question in an experimental study of risky decision making with unpleasant odors and monetary losses in a fully incentivized task with real outcomes. Odor and monetary decisions were matched so that monetary losses corresponded to the amount of money participants were willing to pay to avoid smelling an odor. Hierarchical Bayesian analyses using prospect theory show that participants were less sensitive to probabilities when gambling with odors than when gambling with money. These results highlight the importance of taking the sensory modality into account when studying risky decision making.     

名词短语加工中个体量词通达的影响因素

“双系统”和“双向选择组合网络”理论认为,在汉语使用者的心理词典中存在名词系统和量词系统,两者之间存在双向选择关系。采用启动范式考察在名词短语产生和理解中量词的名词搭配量、名词的量词拥有量和量词-名词定配率对个体量词通达的影响。结果表明,量词的名词搭配量、名词的量词拥有量和量词-名词定配率显著地影响量词的词汇通达,量词和名词之间是双向选择关系。量词通达是直接通达和间接通达的有机结合。     

潜在类别分析技术在心理学研究中的应用

潜在类别分析是通过对类别型的外显变量和潜在变量之间的关系建立统计模型,根据模型参数得到各种潜在类别的具体外在表现的潜在特征分类技术。该分析方法主要应用于心理行为特征的分类、控制认知心理实验中被试个体差异引起的系统误差、评价临床心理诊断的精确性,以及心理测验中的项目分析、信度分析、结构分析等。对此方法的优劣进行分析比较,表明:该方法可以与其他测量理论相结合进一步拓展其在心理测量中的应用,也可在纵向数据和多水平数据中应用。在应用中亦有提升方法技术的空间。     

On measurement properties of continuation ratio models

Three classes of polytomous IRT models are distinguished. These classes are the adjacent category models, the cumulative probability models, and the continuation ratio models. So far, the latter class has received relatively little attention. The class of continuation ratio models includes logistic models, such as the sequential model (Tutz, 1990), and nonlogistic models, such as the acceleration model (Samejima, 1995) and the nonparametric sequential model (Hemker, 1996). Four measurement properties are discussed. These are monotone likelihood ratio of the total score, stochastic ordering of the latent trait by the total score, stochastic ordering of the total score by the latent trait, and invariant item ordering. These properties have been investigated previously for the adjacent category models and the cumulative probability models, and for the continuation ratio models this is done here. It is shown that stochastic ordering of the total score by the latent trait is implied by all continuation ratio models, while monotone likelihood ratio of the total score and stochastic ordering on the latent trait by the total score are not implied by any of the continuation ratio models. Only the sequential rating scale model implies the property of invariant item ordering. Also, we present a Venn-diagram showing the relationships between all known polytomous IRT models from all three classes.     

The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.     

Probability estimation in poker: A qualified success for unaided judgment

Poker players make strategic decisions on the basis of imperfect information, which are informed by their assessment of the probability they will hold the best set of cards among all players at the conclusion of the hand. Exact mental calculations of this probability are impossible—therefore, players must use judgment to estimate their chances. In three studies, 69 moderately experienced poker players estimated the probability of obtaining the best cards among all players, based on the limited information that is known in the early stages of a hand. Although several of the conditions typically associated with well‐calibrated judgment did not apply, players' judgments were generally accurate. The correlation between judged and true probabilities was r > .8 for over five‐sixths of the participants, and when judgments were averaged across players and within hands this correlation was .96. Players slightly overestimated their chance of obtaining the best cards, mainly where this probability was low to moderate (<.7). Probability estimates were slightly too strongly related to the strength of the two cards that a player holds (known only to themselves), and insufficiently influenced by the number of opponents. Seemingly, players show somewhat insufficient regard for the cards that other players could be holding and the potential for opponents to acquire a strong hand. The results show that even when judgment heuristics are used to good effect in a complex probability estimation task, predictable errors can still be observed at the margins of performance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

随机支持模型:青少年主观概率校准的特点

随机支持模型试图以假设支持为随机变量的方式描述主观概率的校准。采用随机配对的60个中国城市户籍人口的比较任务验证了该模型对初中、高中和大学生的适用性。研究还表明青少年主观概率校准的发展特点:青少年的正确率随年龄的增长而提高;主观概率判断(信心)不同年龄有显著差异,大学生信心最强,其次是初中生、再次是高中生;大学生主观概率判断的极端性最强,其次是初中生,再次是高中生;青少年的主观概率校准是过度自信的。     

“过分自信”的研究及其跨文化差异

“过分自信”是一种偏离校准,是指人们关于一般知识问题的概率判断通常以某种方式偏离校准,这种偏离都偏高。跨文化系列研究表明：面对常识和概率判断问题,集体主义文化成员（如中国人）比个体主义文化成员（如美国人）更过分自信。文章在简要回顾“过分自信”研究的基础上,对“过分自信”的跨文化差异及原因进行了比较详细地介绍,并对“过分自信”跨文化差异研究的进一步发展和实际应用进行讨论。冀对以往的研究做初步的归纳和总结,促进决策领域中跨文化比较方面的研究得到进一步发展