Exploring the conjunction fallacy within a category learning framework

The literature presents two major theories on the cause of the conjunction fallacy. The first attributes the conjunction fallacy to the representativeness heuristic. The second suggests that the conjunction fallacy is caused by people combining p(A) and p(B) into p(A&B) in an inappropriate manner. These two theories were contrasted in two category‐learning experiments. As predicted by the latter theory, data showed that participants that could assess p(A&B) directly made fewer conjunction fallacies than participants who had to compute p(A) and p(B) separately and then combine them into p(A&B). Least conjunction fallacies were observed in the cases where the representativeness heuristic was applicable. Overall, data showed that an inability to appropriately combine probabilities is one of the key cognitive mechanisms behind the conjunction fallacy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

时间距离、封面故事和概率对框架效应的影响

研究一以时间距离和封面故事为变量考察对认知相关性的影响, 结果发现时间距离、封面故事及二者间的交互作用显著。坏封面故事中, 人们对1年后发生的事件要比1周、5年与50年后事件的认知相关程度都高, 即最重视; 好封面故事中, 4个时间距离间的认知相关程度差异不显著。研究二在1周、1年、5年和50年四个时间距离下, 探讨封面故事、框架和概率对风险偏好的影响, 结果表明：仅当时间距离为1周时, 不同概率在坏封面故事中风险倾向的差异显著。同时, 大概率下, 封面故事、封面故事与框架的交互作用对风险偏好的影响达到显著水平, 表现出在坏封面故事中, 与负面框架相比, 正面框架下风险回避的比例更高, 符合框架效应。结合研究一、二发现框架效应正发生在认知相关程度最低时。     

时间贴现在神经和行为上的年龄特征

时间贴现的年龄发展具有阶段性。前额皮质, 边缘系统和多巴胺能系统的发展成熟是从儿童期到成人期时间贴现发展变化的神经生物基础。成人期到老年期时间贴现年龄特征的研究结果不一致。概率贴现、未来定向、延迟满足等被用来探讨时间贴现年龄发展特征。可以从大脑不同区域的发展轨迹, 延迟时段的心理意义来进一步深入研究。     

心境对未来事件发生概率判断的影响

本研究采用短影片人为诱发心境的方法,用正性和负性两种情绪事件作为刺激材料,在控制人格变量的前提下,探讨了大学生在不同心境下对未来事件发生概率的判断中是否存在心境一致性效应。结果表明：（1）愉悦心境会增加做出积极判断的倾向,悲伤心境会增加做出消极判断的倾向;（2）无论是在愉悦心境还是在悲伤心境中,被试在对未来事件发生概率的判断上不存在性别差异。结果支持心境对未来事件发生概率判断有所影响,即诱发的心境与未来事件的效价存在一致性效应。     

不确定性容忍度对风险偏好的影响及其情景依赖性

研究以经营店面为背景设计决策材料,采用2(不确定性容忍度:高/低)×2(损益背景:损失/获益)×2(选项描述框架:积极/消极)×3(损益概率:高/中/低)混合实验设计,探讨不同任务情景下个体不确定性容忍度对风险偏好的影响。结果发现,不确定性容忍度主效应显著,高容忍度者比低容忍度者更冒险。不确定性容忍度与损益背景交互作用显著：在损失背景下,高容忍度者比低容忍度者更冒险,在获益背景下无此效应。不确定性容忍度与选项描述框架交互作用显著：在积极框架下,高容忍度者比低容忍度者更冒险,在消极框架下无此效应。这表明,不确定性容忍度对风险偏好产生影响,但这种影响会受到损益背景和选项描述框架的调节,具有情景依赖性。     

概率贴现和时间贴现在人脑中的分离

本研究运用ERP技术来检验概率贴现和时间贴现是否反映了相同的神经机制过程。在本研究中,我们在一个刺激中同时操纵概率贴现（风险vs.安全）和时间贴现（1个月后vs.今天）水平。通过对两个过程上的ERN以及全时间段的ERP分析来确定它们是否反映了相同的认知过程。结果发现,这两者在ERN上存在差异,同时这两个效应在ERP的时程和出现的电极点上都存在差异。这些差异表明这两者可能包含着不同的神经机制过程。     

The alternative explanation to the alternative‐outcome effect and the detection of the focal outcome effect

Abstract: Previous studies on subjective probability judgment indicate that pair‐wise comparison between the focal and the strongest alternative outcome plays an important role in probability judgment. This study, however, found that the randomness of alternative outcomes affected probability judgment for focal outcome. In the present study, 182 participants provided probability estimates for winning on hypothetical slot machines where both successes and losses were composed of multiple outcomes. The randomness of both the focal and alternative outcomes were defined by the expression used in Rappoport and Budescu (1997 ). The analysis indicated that the more random the distributions of both focal and alternative outcomes, the higher the estimated probability for focal outcome. Some theoretical suggestions are discussed.     

System JLZ – rational default reasoning by minimal ranking constructions

We present a powerful quasi-probabilistic default formalism for graded defaults based on a well-motivated canonical ranking construction procedure, System JLZ. It implements the minimal construction paradigm and verifies the major inference principles and inheritance desiderata, including rational monotony for propositions and structured cumulativity for default conditionals. With help from a structured ranking semantics for defaults, it also avoids some drawbacks of semi-qualitative entropy maximization and other competing accounts.     

心理研究中引入贝叶斯统计推断的必要性、应用思路与领域

本文从科学范式演变和概率统计推断特征分析出发,就贝叶斯统计推断引入心理学的必要性、怎么应用、在哪些领域应用集中进行了论述。首先在分析科学范式演进各阶段统计推断任务需要、经典的频率概率统计推断不足基础上,得出科学范式处于危机和革命阶段时需要对相关理论做可信度检验。然后,在介绍贝叶斯定理及其统计推断的基础上,进一步分析了贝叶斯推断能解决理论可信度的多种假设检验情景。最后本文还就贝叶斯统计推断在心理学理论争鸣与建构、心理技术产品开发与评估具体领域应用做了分析。     

An approach to combine the logistic threshold model of psychophysics with the Bradley-Terry-Luce models of choice theory

The paper presents a straightforward extension of the Bradley-Terry-Luce model (BTL model) that can be derived from the logistic threshold model of psychophysics which assumes that psychometric functions are logistic probability functions. It is shown that (under weak side conditions) the logistic threshold model is a submodel of the extended BTL model. Moreover, representation and uniqueness theorems are proven that provide some evidence that the extended BTL model is a useful and widely applicable generalization of the ordinary BTL model. Finally, the logistic shape of the psychometric function is derived from axioms about binary choice probabilities. This characterization of the logistic threshold model can replace goodness of fit tests for the logistic probability distribution.