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181.
In a typical probability learning task participants are presented with a repeated choice between two response alternatives, one of which has a higher payoff probability than the other. Rational choice theory requires that participants should eventually allocate all their responses to the high‐payoff alternative, but previous research has found that people fail to maximize their payoffs. Instead, it is commonly observed that people match their response probabilities to the payoff probabilities. We report three experiments on this choice anomaly using a simple probability learning task in which participants were provided with (i) large financial incentives, (ii) meaningful and regular feedback, and (iii) extensive training. In each experiment large proportions of participants adopted the optimal response strategy and all three of the factors mentioned above contributed to this. The results are supportive of rational choice theory. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
182.
Candice M. Chavez James L. McGaugh Norman M. Weinberger 《Neurobiology of learning and memory》2009,91(4):382-392
Stress hormones released by an experience can modulate memory strength via the basolateral amygdala, which in turn acts on sites of memory storage such as the cerebral cortex [McGaugh, J. L. (2004). The amygdala modulates the consolidation of memories of emotionally arousing experiences. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 27, 1–28]. Stimuli that acquire behavioral importance gain increased representation in the cortex. For example, learning shifts the tuning of neurons in the primary auditory cortex (A1) to the frequency of a conditioned stimulus (CS), and the greater the level of CS importance, the larger the area of representational gain [Weinberger, N. M. (2007). Associative representational plasticity in the auditory cortex: A synthesis of two disciplines. Learning & Memory, 14(1–2), 1–16]. The two lines of research suggest that BLA strengthening of memory might be accomplished in part by increasing the representation of an environmental stimulus. The present study investigated whether stimulation of the BLA can affect cortical memory representations. In male Sprague–Dawley rats studied under urethane general anesthesia, frequency receptive fields were obtained from A1 before and up to 75 min after the pairing of a tone with BLA stimulation (BLAstm: 100 trials, 400 ms, 100 Hz, 400 μA [±16.54]). Tone started before and continued after BLAstm. Group BLA/1.0 (n = 16) had a 1 s CS–BLAstm interval while Group BLA/1.6 (n = 5) has a 1.6 s interval. The BLA/1.0 group did develop specific tuning shifts toward and to the CS, which could change frequency tuning by as much as two octaves. Moreover, its shifts increased over time and were enduring, lasting 75 min. However, group BLA/1.6 did not develop tuning shifts, indicating that precise CS–BLAstm timing is important in the anesthetized animal. Further, training in the BLA/1.0 paradigm but stimulating outside of the BLA did not produce tuning shifts. These findings demonstrate that the BLA is capable of exerting highly specific, enduring, learning-related modifications of stimulus representation in the cerebral cortex. These findings suggest that the ability of the BLA to alter specific cortical representations may underlie, at least in part, the modulatory influence of BLA activity on strengthening long-term memory. 相似文献
183.
Silvia R. Hepburn Thorsten Barnhofer J. Mark G. Williams 《Journal of Happiness Studies》2009,10(4):483-496
Most people believe that the future will bring them more good things than bad, and therefore have high hopes for the future
(MacLeod et al. Cogn Emot 10:69–85, 1996). However, many patients with mood disorders do not hold this positive belief about
the future. At the extreme, low expectations of positive outcomes in the future can lead to feelings of hopelessness (O’Connor
et al. Psychol Health Med 5:155–161, 2000). This paper aims to extend the literature on subjective probability of future events,
using a mood induction paradigm to examine the effects of transient mood change on perceived likelihood of future events in
a non-clinical community sample. Participants rated likelihood of future events from a standardized list and from their own
lives. Ratings were made in both normal and experimentally-induced positive or negative mood. Results show that self-generated
future events were perceived to be more likely than those from a standardized list, and that negative mood significantly biased
perceived likelihood of other-generated future events. Participants rating standardized list events saw positive outcomes
as less likely and negative outcomes as more likely in induced negative mood than they did in normal mood. Mood had no effect
on ratings of self-generated events. Possible directions for future research are discussed.
相似文献
Silvia R. HepburnEmail: |
184.
Louis Narens 《Journal of mathematical psychology》2009,53(5):399-407
A new foundation is presented for the theory of subjective judgments of probability known in the psychological literature as “Support Theory”. It is based on new complementation operations that, unlike those of classical probability theory (set-theoretic complementation) and classical logic (negation), need not satisfy the principles of the Law of The Excluded Middle and the Law of Double Complementation. Interrelationships between the new complementation operations and the Kahneman and Tversky judgmental heuristic of availability are described. 相似文献
185.
A Thurstonian-type model for pairwise comparisons is any model in which the response (e.g., “they are the same” or “they are different”) to two stimuli being compared depends, deterministically or probabilistically, on the realizations of two randomly varying representations (perceptual images) of these stimuli. The two perceptual images in such a model may be stochastically interdependent but each has to be selectively dependent on its stimulus. It has been previously shown that all possible discrimination probability functions for same–different comparisons can be generated by Thurstonian-type models of the simplest variety, with independent percepts and deterministic decision rules. It has also been shown, however, that a broad class of Thurstonian-type models, called “well-behaved” (and including, e.g., models with multivariate normal perceptual representations whose parameters are smooth functions of stimuli) cannot simultaneously account for two empirically plausible properties of same–different comparisons, Regular Minimality (which essentially says that “being least discriminable from” is a symmetric relation) and nonconstancy of the minima of discrimination probabilities (the fact that different pairs of least discriminable stimuli are discriminated with different probabilities). These results have been obtained for stimulus spaces represented by regions of Euclidean spaces. In this paper, the impossibility for well-behaved Thurstonian-type models to simultaneously account for Regular Minimality and nonconstancy of minima is established for a much broader notion of well-behavedness applied to a much broader class of stimulus spaces (any Hausdorff arc-connected ones). The universality of Thurstonian-type models with independent perceptual images and deterministic decision rules is shown (by a simpler proof than before) to hold for arbitrary stimulus spaces. 相似文献
186.
187.
封面故事、选项框架和损益概率对风险偏好的影响 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
以股市投资为背景设计决策问题,考查了问题的封面故事类型、备择选项框架和风险项的概率水平对327名股民被试和465名大学生被试的风险偏好的影响。结果表明,股民被试的风险偏好不同于大学生被试,前者在所有实验处理上呈现出稳定的风险回避倾向。大学生被试在不同类型的封面故事下呈现出不同的风险偏好。在传统的坏封面故事下,风险偏好只受到备择选项框架的影响,不受损益概率的影响,即出现经典的框架效应现象。在好封面故事下,风险偏好受到备择选项框架、损益概率及两者交互作用的影响,即在高概率水平上出现框架效应现象,在低概率水平上出现框架效应反转现象 相似文献
188.
Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (NMH) conduct three experiments designed to test whether exemplar cuing (EC) theory or a statistical format theory provides a more accurate account for how people make judgments about low‐probability events. They report finding support for the statistical format theory and little or no support for EC. However, NMH misstate the requirements for the production of exemplars in EC theory. As a result, they confuse non‐exemplar conditions with exemplar conditions in their experiments, and find results that are virtually irrelevant to EC theory. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
189.
Evidence and inference in educational assessment 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Robert J. Mislevy 《Psychometrika》1994,59(4):439-483
Educational assessment concerns inference about students' knowledge, skills, and accomplishments. Because data are never so comprehensive and unequivocal as to ensure certitude, test theory evolved in part to address questions of weight, coverage, and import of data. The resulting concepts and techniques can be viewed as applications of more general principles for inference in the presence of uncertainty. Issues of evidence and inference in educational assessment are discussed from this perspective.Probability isn't really about numbers; it's about the structure of reasoning.Presidential address to the Psychometric Society, presented June 25, 1994, in Champaign, Illinois.Supported by (1) Contract No. N00014-91-J-4101, R&T 4421573-01, from the Cognitive Science Program, Cognitive and Neural Sciences Division, Office of Naval Research, (2) the National Center for Research on Evaluation, Standards, Student Testing (CRESST), Educational Research and Development Program, cooperative agreement number R117G10027 and CFDA catalog number 84.117G, as administered by the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U.S. Department of Education, and (3) the Statistical and Psychometric Research Division of Educational Testing Service. I am grateful for comments and suggestions from Henry Braun, Drew Gitomer, Richard Patz, Jonathan Troper, and Howard Wainer. 相似文献
190.
Laboratory experiments have provided useful information about how people behave in risky situations. In particular, such experiments have allowed for the observation of many deviations from the predictions of expected utility theory. There is some dispute, however, over the effect of the use of real versus hypothetical money in these experiments and over the impact of experience. In this paper we describe auction experiments in which subjects faced a low-probability risk with either hypothetical or real-money consequences and varying amounts of experience. Using hypothetical payoffs resulted in behavior that provides a reasonable qualitative prediction of behavior with real consequences, but that seems to indicate a less diligent altitude toward spending the money as well as less concern about the risk. 相似文献