(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some—but not all—of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

The co-development of chores and effortful control among Mexican-origin youth and prospective work outcomes

The present research examined: (a) the co-development of chores and effortful control, and (b) the prospective impact of effortful control development (i.e., initial levels and the trajectory of effortful control from late childhood through adolescence) on work outcomes in young adulthood. We used data from a longitudinal study of 674 Mexican-origin youth assessed at ages 10, 12, 14, 16, and 19. We found no evidence of co-developmental associations between chores and effortful control, but we found that higher initial levels of effortful control (age 10) predicted working-student status, less job stress, and better job fit, and steeper increases in effortful control from age 10 to 16 predicted higher job satisfaction and job autonomy in young adulthood (age 19).     

Wandering eyes: Eye movements during mind wandering in video lectures

Video lectures are increasingly prevalent, but they present challenges to learners. Students' minds often wander, yet we know little about how mind wandering affects attention during video lectures. This paper presents two studies that examined eye movement patterns of mind wandering during video lectures. In the studies, mind wandering reports were collected by either self-caught reports or thought probes. Results were similar across the studies: mind wandering was associated with an increased allocation of fixations to the instructor's image. For fixations on the slides, the average duration increased but the dispersion decreased. Moreover, preliminary evidence suggested that fixation duration and dispersion can diminish soon after self-caught reports of mind wandering. Overall, these findings help advance our understanding of how learners' attention is affected during mind wandering and may facilitate efforts in objectively identifying mind wandering. Future research is needed to determine if these findings can extend to other instructional formats.     

Students’ Perceptions of School Climate During the Middle School Years: Associations with Trajectories of Psychological and Behavioral Adjustment

A cross-domain latent growth curve model was used to examine the trajectories of change in student perceptions of four critical dimensions of school climate (i.e., teacher support, peer support, student autonomy in the classroom, and clarity and consistency in school rules and regulations) among 1,451 early adolescents from the beginning of sixth through the end of eighth grade; and the effects of such trajectories on the rate of change in psychological and behavioral adjustment. Findings indicated that all of the dimensions of perceived school climate declined over the 3 years of middle school. Furthermore, declines in each of the dimensions of perceived school climate were associated with declines over time in psychological and behavioral adjustment. Moreover, the direction of effects between each dimension of perceived school climate and psychological or behavioral adjustment were often unidirectional rather than bi-directional, underscoring the role of perceived school climate in the psychological and behavioral health of early adolescents. Gender and socioeconomic class differences in these patterns are noted.     

Investigating the relationship of working memory tasks and fluid intelligence tests by means of the fixed-links model in considering the impurity problem

The impurity of measures is considered as cause of erroneous interpretations of observed relationships. This paper concentrates on impurity with respect to the relationship between working memory and fluid intelligence. The means for the identification of impurity was the fixed-links model, which enabled the decomposition of variance into experimental and non-experimental parts. A substantial non-experimental part could be expected to signify impurity. In a sample of 345 participants error scores and reaction times, which were obtained by the Exchange Test, represented working memory, and Advanced Progressive Matrices served as measure of fluid intelligence. The four independent latent variables of the model associated with error scores and reaction times led to a multiple correlation .67 with the latent variable of fluid intelligence. However, there was impurity since the decomposition by means of the fixed-links model showed that only 45% of the common variance was due to working memory.     

如何描述发展趋势的差异：潜变量混合增长模型

在追踪研究中,研究者不仅关心某一特质随时间的发展趋势,而且关注个体之间发展趋势的差异及其存在差异的原因。在总体发展同质的情形下,多层线性模型和潜变量增长曲线模型为解决这一问题提供了切实有效的方法。但是如果所研究的总体本身不同质,就需要一种能够描述总体中不同质子总体的不同发展特点的方法。该文简要介绍了一种能够描述不同群体不同发展趋势特征的统计模型——潜变量混合增长模型,并通过一个实际例子介绍了这一方法的应用过程,同时说明了潜变量混合增长模型与多层线性模型和潜变量增长曲线模型之间的关系     

等级反应模型下项目特征曲线等值法在大型考试中的应用

在中国最大的资格考试之一的经济专业资格考试中,为保证不同年度间考试的可比性、进行题库建设和为计算机自适应考试做准备,应用项目反应理论中等级反应模型下的项目特征曲线等值法,采用铆测验等值设计,实现了4个年度考试资料的项目参数和能力参数的等值,并成功地组建了经济专业题库。在此基础上,利用等值技术对不同年份试卷的划界分数进行了比较,为经济考试的合格标准制定、确保考试的公平性提供了实证依据。     

Prior sensitivity in theory testing: An apologia for the Bayes factor

A commonly voiced concern with the Bayes factor is that, unlike many other Bayesian and non-Bayesian quantitative measures of model evaluation, it is highly sensitive to the parameter prior. This paper argues that, when dealing with psychological models that are quantitatively instantiated theories, being sensitive to the prior is an attractive feature of a model evaluation measure. This assertion follows from the observation that in psychological models parameters are not completely unknown, but correspond to psychological variables about which theory often exists. This theory can be formally captured in the prior range and prior distribution of the parameters, indicating which parameter values are allowed, likely, unlikely and forbidden. Because the prior is a vehicle for expressing psychological theory, it should, like the model equation, be considered as an integral part of the model. It is argued that the combined practice of building models using informative priors, and evaluating models using prior sensitive measures advances knowledge.     

Normalized demand for drugs and other reinforcers.

The concepts of behavioral economics have proven to be useful for understanding the environmental control of overall levels of responding for a variety of commodities, including reinforcement by drug self-administration. These general concepts have implications for the assessment of abuse liability and drug abuse intervention and the formulation of public policy on drug abuse. An essential requirement is the ability to compare the demand for different drugs directly in order to assess relative abuse liability, and to compare demand for the same drug under different environmental and biological interventions to assess their ability to reduce demand. Until now, such comparisons were hampered by the confounding effect of varying drug doses and potencies that prevent quantitative comparisons of demand elasticity--sensitivity of consumption and responding to the constraint of price (effort). In this paper we describe a procedure to normalize demand-curve analysis that permits dose- and potency-independent comparisons of demand across drugs. The procedure is shown to be effective for comparing drug demand within and across the drug classes. The technique permits a quantitative ordering of demand that is consistent with the peak levels of responding maintained by the drugs. The same technique is generalized for the comparison of other types of reinforcers under different biological conditions.