确定、不确定及风险状态下选择反转:“齐当别”选择方式的解释

应用广义“弱优势”（weak dominance）模型检验确定、不确定及风险状态下的选择反转现象。该模型将人们的二择一选择行为描述为一种搜寻一备择方案在主观上优越于另一备择方案的过程。即：在甲方案在某一维度上优越于乙方案,而乙方案在另一维度上优越于甲方案的情况下,为了利用“弱优势”（weak dominance）原则达成决策,人们必须在一维度上将两者间较小的差异人为地“齐同”掉,而在另一维度上将“辨别”两者间较大的差异作为最终选择的依据。因此,在每次选择时,如果不认为最大的差异都是来自同一维度,就会导致选择反转。此项研究设计了一“匹配”任务,并借此检验,在不同的决策状态下,判断两备择方案在各维度上的差异是否能预测人们的重复选择变异。总的测试-再测试结果支持“齐当别”选择方式的解释。其发现表明：重复选择之所以可能是一致的,并不是因为每次都认定被选中的备择方案具有最大值,而是因为每次选择都认定最大的差异来自一固定的维度。     

Mental accounting matters

Mental accounting is the set of cognitive operations used by individuals and households to organize, evaluate, and keep track of financial activities. Making use of research on this topic over the past decade, this paper summarizes the current state of our knowledge about how people engage in mental accounting activities. Three components of mental accounting receive the most attention. This first captures how outcomes are perceived and experienced, and how decisions are made and subsequently evaluated. The accounting system provides the inputs to be both ex ante and ex post cost–benefit analyses. A second component of mental accounting involves the assignment of activities to specific accounts. Both the sources and uses of funds are labeled in real as well as in mental accounting systems. Expenditures are grouped into categories (housing, food, etc.) and spending is sometimes constrained by implicit or explicit budgets. The third component of mental accounting concerns the frequency with which accounts are evaluated and ‘choice bracketing’. Accounts can be balanced daily, weekly, yearly, and so on, and can be defined narrowly or broadly. Each of the components of mental accounting violates the economic principle of fungibility. As a result, mental accounting influences choice, that is, it matters. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

时间感知差异对跨期选择倾向的影响作用

本研究从人格特质差异角度出发, 采用简单跨期选择任务考察了由时距复制任务筛选的两类时距估计倾向不同的群体(时间高估者和时间低估者)在跨期选择中行为倾向的差异, 旨在探讨时间感知在跨期决策中的影响作用。结果发现：(1)无论任务难易, 与时间低估者相比, 时间高估者在跨期选择时更倾向于选择即时兑现的较小奖赏。(2)时间高估者和低估者的跨期选择反应时没有明显的差异, 但二者的反应时受任务难度的影响程度明显不同, 时间高估者的跨期选择反应时不受任务难度的影响, 而时间低估者在任务困难时的反应时比任务容易时明显增长。这些结果表明, 在跨期选择过程中, 时间感知倾向差异明显地影响了个体的选择倾向。时间高估倾向个体对时距的高估可能会导致其在跨期选择权衡中对收益成本的高估, 进而做出冲动的选择行为。     

数学焦虑影响大学生/儿童估算策略运用的对比研究

选取66名大学生和40名小学四年级儿童,运用选择/无选法研究范式,采用自编乘法估算材料考察了数学焦虑对成人和四年级儿童算术策略运用的不同影响.研究结果显示:(1)数学焦虑仅影响成人在自由选择条件中策略选择的正确率.(2)数学焦虑影响儿童的策略分布、策略执行的正确率及最佳选择条件中策略选择的正确率.(3)成人和儿童策略选择的适应性(以有选条件下的策略使用正确率为指标)均受到数学焦虑的影响,低数学焦虑者的适应性明显更好.文章讨论了数学焦虑影响成人与儿童算术策略运用的不同潜在机制.     

Failure to find a distance effect in pigeon choice: Manipulating amount and delay of reinforcement

The choice behavior of primates, including humans, displays a distance effect: Latency to choose between alternatives appears to increase with smaller differences in value. There is, so far, no demonstration of this effect in birds. Tests of distance effects in birds have been conducted in binary choice situations with a dominant alternative, where one alternative is superior to the other in all aspects that meaningfully contribute to value (e.g., provides access to the same reinforcer, but with a shorter delay). The present study considers the possibility that including dominant alternatives in choice tests precludes distance effects. Four pigeons were presented with binary choices between alternatives that varied in amount and delay. Some choices had a dominant alternative (smaller–sooner or larger–later vs. smaller–later) and some did not (smaller–sooner vs. larger–later). Across phases, only the delay to the smaller–sooner reinforcer varied. Distance effects were expected to be expressed as longer latencies as choice between smaller–sooner and larger–later reinforcers approached indifference. Despite the sensitivity of choice to differences in amount and delay, no distance effect was observed. Alternative explanations for the failure to find a distance effect in pigeon choice, including the Sequential Choice Model (SCM), are discussed.     

The predictive validity of a computer-assisted career decision-making system: A six-year follow-up

The present study tested the predictive validity of Making Better Career Decisions (MBCD), a computer-assisted career decision-making system. Seventy clients who had used MBCD six years earlier were interviewed by telephone about their present field of study or occupation and the degree of their satisfaction with their occupational choice. The participants were divided into two groups: one consisted of clients whose chosen occupation was on the list of occupations recommended by MBCD, whereas the other consisted of clients whose chosen occupation was not on the recommended list. In the first group, 84% were highly satisfied with their occupational choice and 16% were satisfied to a moderate extent. Among those whose chosen occupation was not on the recommended list, only 38% were highly satisfied with their chosen occupation, 44% were satisfied to a moderate extent, and 18% were dissatisfied with their choice. These findings support the predictive validity of MBCD. Implications for counseling and computer-assisted career guidance systems are discussed.     

The impact of college on sex-atypical career choices of men and women

This study sought to identify the college environments and experiences associated with changes in sex-atypical career aspirations among men and women. A sample of 17,637 students attending baccalaureate institutions across the country was surveyed upon college entry and again 4 years later. The findings revealed that aspects of the college environment, including the peer culture, faculty interaction, and curriculum, all contribute to shifts to or from nontraditional career choices.     

Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven dynamics. Each component of our model is specified semiparametrically using Dirichlet process (DP) priors. The utility (latent variable) component of our model allows the alternative-specific utility errors to semiparametrically deviate from a normal distribution. This generates a robust alternative to popular Thurstonian specifications that are based on underlying normally distributed latent variables. Our second component focuses on flexibly modeling cross-sectional heterogeneity. The semiparametric specification allows the heterogeneity distribution to mimic either a finite mixture distribution or a continuous distribution such as the normal, whichever is supported by the data. Thus, special features such as multimodality can be readily incorporated without the need to overtly search for the best heterogeneity specification across a series of models. Finally, we allow for parameter-driven dynamics using a semiparametric state-space approach. This specification adds to the literature on robust Kalman filters. The resulting framework is very general and integrates divergent strands of the literatures on flexible choice models, Bayesian nonparametrics and robust time series specifications. Given this generality, we show how several existing Thurstonian models can be obtained as special forms of our model. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for the inference of model parameters, report results from two simulation studies and apply the model to consumer choice data from a frequently purchased product category. The results from our simulations and application highlight the benefits of using our semiparametric approach.     

Psychophysics of remembering: to bias or not to bias

Delayed matching to sample is typically a two-alternative forced-choice procedure with two sample stimuli. In this task the effects of varying the probability of reinforcers for correct choices and the resulting receiver operating characteristic are symmetrical. A version of the task where a sample is present on some trials and absent on others is analogous to a yes/no recognition task. We describe data from two experiments where an asymmetry in performance in the yes/no task could be attributed to a change in response bias with increasing retention-interval duration from a matching-law perspective, but not from a signal-detection perspective. Both approaches make explicit assumptions about response bias. The apparent inconsistency between the two approaches to the treatment of response bias is resolved in terms of a model proposed by K. G. White and J. T. Wixted (1999) which predicts asymmetrical matching-law functions and receiver operating characteristics without making any assumptions about response bias.