Leaping to Conclusions: Why Premise Relevance Affects Argument Strength

Everyday reasoning requires more evidence than raw data alone can provide. We explore the idea that people can go beyond this data by reasoning about how the data was sampled. This idea is investigated through an examination of premise non‐monotonicity, in which adding premises to a category‐based argument weakens rather than strengthens it. Relevance theories explain this phenomenon in terms of people's sensitivity to the relationships among premise items. We show that a Bayesian model of category‐based induction taking premise sampling assumptions and category similarity into account complements such theories and yields two important predictions: First, that sensitivity to premise relationships can be violated by inducing a weak sampling assumption; and second, that premise monotonicity should be restored as a result. We test these predictions with an experiment that manipulates people's assumptions in this regard, showing that people draw qualitatively different conclusions in each case.     

A multitrait-multimethod model with minimal assumptions

A new model of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data sets is presented. It is shown that this model can be defined by only three assumptions in the framework of classical psychometric test theory (CTT). All other properties of the model, particularly the uncorrelated-ness of the trait with the method factors are logical consequences of the definition of the model. In the model proposed there are as many trait factors as different traits considered, but the number of method factors is one fewer than the number of methods included in an MTMM study. The covariance structure implied by this model is derived, and it is shown that this model is identified even under conditions under which other CFA-MTMM models are not. The model is illustrated by two empirical applications. Furthermore, its advantages and limitations are discussed with respect to previously developed CFA models for MTMM data.     

Pabiku and Ga Ti Ga: Two Mechanisms Infants Use to Learn About the World

Some of the things that adults learn about language, and about the world, are very specific, whereas others are more abstract or rulelike. This article reviews evidence showing that infants, too, can very rapidly acquire both specific and abstract information, and considers the mechanisms that infants might use in doing so.     

Ethnoracial comparisons in anxiety and depression outcomes among Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander college students

We explored differences in distress scores at intake as well as the change in anxiety and depression scores over the course of 12 therapy sessions for Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) college students. Data were collected from the Center for Collegiate Mental Health (N = 256,242). Results support the notion that NHPI college students experience anxiety and depression in therapy differently from other ethnic groups with moderate-to-large magnitudes of effect.     

Rater Model Using Signal Detection Theory for Latent Differential Rater Functioning

Differential rater functioning (DRF) occurs when raters show evidence of exercising differential severity or leniency when scoring examinees within different subgroups. Previous studies of DRF have examined rater bias using manifest variables (e.g., use of covariates) to determine the subgroups. These manifest variables include gender and the ethnicity of the examinee. For example, a rater may score males more severely. Ideally, each rater’s severity should be invariant across subgroups. This study examines DRF in the context of latent subgroups that classify possible sources of DRF based on raters’ scoring behavior rather than manifest factors. An extension of the latent class signal detection theory (LC-SDT) model for identifying DRF is proposed and examined using real-world data and simulations. Results from real-world data show that the signal detection approach leads to an effective method to identify latent DRF. Simulations with varying sample sizes and conditions of rater precision were shown to recover parameters at an adequate level, supporting its use to identify latent DRF in large-scale data. These findings suggest that the DRF extension of the LC-SDT can be a useful model to examine characteristics of raters and add information that can aid rater training.     

Out-of-bag Prediction Error: A Cross Validation Index for Generalized Structured Component Analysis

Cross validation is a useful way of comparing predictive generalizability of theoretically plausible a priori models in structural equation modeling (SEM). A number of overall or local cross validation indices have been proposed for existing factor-based and component-based approaches to SEM, including covariance structure analysis and partial least squares path modeling. However, there is no such cross validation index available for generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) which is another component-based approach. We thus propose a cross validation index for GSCA, called Out-of-bag Prediction Error (OPE), which estimates the expected prediction error of a model over replications of so-called in-bag and out-of-bag samples constructed through the implementation of the bootstrap method. The calculation of this index is well-suited to the estimation procedure of GSCA, which uses the bootstrap method to obtain the standard errors or confidence intervals of parameter estimates. We empirically evaluate the performance of the proposed index through the analyses of both simulated and real data.     

A Regression Framework for Causal Mediation Analysis with Applications to Behavioral Science

We introduce and extend the classical regression framework for conducting mediation analysis from the fit of only one model. Using the essential mediation components (EMCs) allows us to estimate causal mediation effects and their analytical variance. This single-equation approach reduces computation time and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations. Additionally, we extend this framework to non-nested mediation systems, provide a joint measure of mediation for complex mediation hypotheses, propose new visualizations for mediation effects, and explain why estimates of the total effect may differ depending on the approach used. Using data from social science studies, we also provide extensive illustrations of the usefulness of this framework and its advantages over traditional approaches to mediation analysis. The example data are freely available for download online and we include the R code necessary to reproduce our results.     

Simple Structure Detection Through Bayesian Exploratory Multidimensional IRT Models

In modern validity theory, a major concern is the construct validity of a test, which is commonly assessed through confirmatory or exploratory factor analysis. In the framework of Bayesian exploratory Multidimensional Item Response Theory (MIRT) models, we discuss two methods aimed at investigating the underlying structure of a test, in order to verify if the latent model adheres to a chosen simple factorial structure. This purpose is achieved without imposing hard constraints on the discrimination parameter matrix to address the rotational indeterminacy. The first approach prescribes a 2-step procedure. The parameter estimates are obtained through an unconstrained MCMC sampler. The simple structure is, then, inspected with a post-processing step based on the Consensus Simple Target Rotation technique. In the second approach, both rotational invariance and simple structure retrieval are addressed within the MCMC sampling scheme, by introducing a sparsity-inducing prior on the discrimination parameters. Through simulation as well as real-world studies, we demonstrate that the proposed methods are able to correctly infer the underlying sparse structure and to retrieve interpretable solutions.     

The Impact of Item Misspecification and Dichotomization on Class and Parameter Recovery in LCA of Count Data

Mixture analysis of count data has become increasingly popular among researchers of substance use, behavioral analysis, and program evaluation. However, this increase in popularity seems to have occurred along with adoption of some conventions in model specification based on arbitrary heuristics that may impact the validity of results. Findings from a systematic review of recent drug and alcohol publications suggested count variables are often dichotomized or misspecified as continuous normal indicators in mixture analysis. Prior research suggests that misspecifying skewed distributions of continuous indicators in mixture analysis introduces bias, though the consequences of this practice when applied to count indicators has not been studied. The present work describes results from a simulation study examining bias in mixture recovery when count indicators are dichotomized (median split; presence vs. absence), ordinalized, or the distribution is misspecified (continuous normal; incorrect count distribution). All distributional misspecifications and methods of categorizing resulted in greater bias in parameter estimates and recovery of class membership relative to specifying the true distribution, though dichotomization appeared to improve class enumeration accuracy relative to all other specifications. Overall, results demonstrate the importance of accurately modeling count indicators in mixture analysis, as misspecification and categorizing data can distort study outcomes.