When Are Thought Experiments Poor Ones?

A characteristic of contemporary analytic philosophy is its ample use of thought experiments. We formulate two features that can lead one to suspect that a given thought experiment is a poor one. Although these features are especially in evidence within the philosophy of mind, they can, surprisingly enough, also be discerned in some celebrated scientific thought experiments. Yet in the latter case the consequences appear to be less disastrous. We conclude that the use of thought experiments is more successful in science than in philosophy. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Impact of Cognitive Diversity on Crisis Negotiations

This paper reports on a series of experiments designed to assess the impact of grouping decision makers by level of cognitive complexity on the outcomes they attain in crisis negotiations. The participants—University of Maryland undergraduates who took roles in a simulated international hostage crisis—used a computer decision support system and a controlled network environment for communications. The goal of the experiments was to better understand the dynamics that lead certain types of groupings to have greater success in negotiations, and that lead certain groups of adversaries to achieve more mutually beneficial outcomes such as compromise and agreement. The findings point to a positive relationship between the level of homogeneity in cognitive complexity among decision makers and the achievement of positive outcomes in crisis negotiations.     

Investigating the effects of Rectangular Rapid Flash Beacons on pedestrian behavior and driver yielding on 25 mph streets: A quasi-experimental field study on a university campus

Rectangular Rapid-Flash Beacons (RRFBs) are safety measures that have become popular in recent years in the USA. Such equipment has demonstrated effectiveness in reducing vehicle speed and conflicts among road users, and increasing drivers’ yielding to pedestrians. However, RRFB effects on pedestrian behaviors are less well documented, and perhaps could produce contraindicated effects in crossing behavior. Specifically, RRFBs may give pedestrians a feeling of protection and induce them to more risk-taking when crossing the road. The current study was designed to investigate drivers and pedestrians’ reactions to a RRFB system installed at a university campus located in Virginia, USA. We deployed (a) field observation, using a multiple pretest/posttest non-equivalent control group quasi-experiment design and (b) interviews of students throughout the project’s multiple time periods. In total, 2454 pedestrians and 1312 drivers were observed and 265 students were interviewed. RRFB installations did not distinguish driver yielding likelihood between sites with or without RRFBs. However, driver yielding overall increased linearly over the five rounds of the study. Whether this was the result of the general presence of RRFBs on campus from the third round to the end of the fifth round is unknown. There is evidence from person interviews that students perceived increased safety for pedestrians over time. Being a RRFB chosen site or actual activation of the RRFBs did not have a significant relationship with pedestrian looking behavior either. The potential consequences of these results as well as the context of RRFB use on a university campus and generally low-speed roads are discussed.     

Saving Face: Identifying Voter Responses to Black Candidates and Female Candidates

Much of what we know about the responses of voters to Black candidates and female candidates comes from experimental research. Yet the accuracy of experimental data can be threatened by the possibility that social desirability pressures contaminate self‐reporting. We address this threat in a project that considers psychological approaches to reducing social desirability pressures. Offering participants the opportunity to explain their decisions about sensitive subjects, such as voting for a Black or female candidate, can lessen social desirability pressures. We analyze this approach across three commonly used samples: undergraduate, adult convenience, and adult national. Our results suggest that existing experimental research overestimates voter support for Black and female candidates, but these issues can be mitigated with the simple innovation presented here.     

Eye‐tracking Social Preferences

We hypothesize that if people are motivated by a particular social preference, then choosing in accordance with this preference will lead to an identifiable pattern of eye movements. We track eye movements while subjects make choices in simple three‐person distribution experiments. We characterize each choice in terms of three different types of social preferences: efficiency, maxi‐min, and envy. For the characterization, we use either the choice data or the eye movement data. The evidence indicates that distributional choices are broadly consistent with the choice rule implied by eye movements. In other words, what subjects appear to be interested in when you look at their choices corresponds to what they appear to be interested in when you look at their eye movements. This correspondence lends credibility to the behavioral relevance of social preferences models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-time experience of critical range situations in BEV use and the positive effect of coping information

A frequently discussed phenomenon in the context of limited range as a usage barrier for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is range anxiety (i.e., range stress). The objective of the present research was (1) to examine if the effect of first-time experience of a critical range situation on inexperienced BEV drivers’ range experience (e.g., range stress) is rather positive or negative, (2) to examine if providing minimal coping information can enhance this effect and (3) if a positive adaptation effect can be found under different criticality levels regarding the available range. A field experiment was conducted, in which 74 participants drove a BEV in a critical range situation (i.e., experience of a small range safety buffer) on an unaccompanied 94 km round trip. Results indicate that the first-time experience of a critical range situation has a moderate positive effect on range stress (i.e., reduced range stress after the trip compared to range stress before the trip), that coping information can partly enhance range experience and that these positive effects can be found under both examined criticality levels (critical vs. highly critical range situation). The results can be useful to inform strategies aimed at reducing the experience of range stress in the early period of BEV usage.     

Remembering from any angle: the flexibility of visual perspective during retrieval

When recalling autobiographical memories, individuals often experience visual images associated with the event. These images can be constructed from two different perspectives: first person, in which the event is visualized from the viewpoint experienced at encoding, or third person, in which the event is visualized from an external vantage point. Using a novel technique to measure visual perspective, we examined where the external vantage point is situated in third-person images. Individuals in two studies were asked to recall either 10 or 15 events from their lives and describe the perspectives they experienced. Wide variation in spatial locations was observed within third-person perspectives, with the location of these perspectives relating to the event being recalled. Results suggest remembering from an external viewpoint may be more common than previous studies have demonstrated.     

关于实验心理学中推理的现代心理测量方法(英文)

推理测验与推理实验不同。推理测验用来衡量智商;而推理实验则用来研究推理的心理过程。测验旨在找出能力的个体差异;而实验则意在突出所有个体的一般性心理过程。近年来,心理学中的推理已经发生了变化,我们在理论进化方面简要地总结了如下这些变化:关注点从推理任务中的反应过程变为个体对不同任务做反应时的差异和其中稳定的反应模式,开始考虑不同推理者的组织差异和数量差异(犹如不同游泳运动员的游泳动作和肌肉数量)。然而,这些理论创新必须有精确的建模技术的支持。我们将以条件推理材料为例,展示了现代心理测量方法可以帮我们解决理论创新中产生的三类主要的研究问题。     

Measurement by subjective estimation: Testing for separable representations

Studying how individuals compare two given quantitative stimuli, say d₁ and d₂, is a fundamental problem. One very common way to address it is through ratio estimation, that is to ask individuals not to give values to d₁ and d₂, but rather to give their estimates of the ratio p=d₁/d₂. Several psychophysical theories (the best known being Stevens’ power-law) claim that this ratio cannot be known directly and that there are cognitive distortions on the apprehension of the different quantities. These theories result in the so-called separable representations [Luce, R. D. (2002). A psychophysical theory of intensity proportions, joint presentations, and matches. Psychological Review, 109, 520–532; Narens, L. (1996). A theory of ratio magnitude estimation. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 40, 109–788], which include Stevens’ model as a special case. In this paper we propose a general statistical framework that allows for testing in a rigorous way whether the separable representation theory is grounded or not. We conclude in favor of it, but reject Stevens’ model. As a byproduct, we provide estimates of the psychophysical functions of interest.     

IMAGINATION'S GRIP ON SCIENCE

Abstract: In part because “imagination” is a slippery notion, its exact role in the production of scientific knowledge remains unclear. There is, however, one often explicit and deliberate use of imagination by scientists that can be (and has been) studied intensively by epistemologists and historians of science: thought experiments. The main goal of this article is to document the varieties of thought experimentation, not so much in terms of the different sciences in which they occur but rather in terms of the different functions they fulfil. I argue that thought experimentation (and hence imagination) plays a role not only in theory choice but in singular causal analysis and scientific discovery as well. I pinpoint, moreover, some of the rules governing the use of thought experiments in theory choice and in singular causal analysis, that is, some of the criteria they should meet in order to fulfil those functions successfully.