Learning from the law to address uncertainty in the precautionary principle

Environmentalists have advocated the Precautionary Principle (PP) to help guide public and private decisions about the environment. By contrast, industry and its spokesmen have opposed this. There is not one principle, but many that have been recommended for this purpose. Despite the attractiveness of a core idea in all versions of the principle—that decision-makers should take some precautionary steps to ensure that threats of serious and irreversible damage to the environment and public health do not materialize into harm—even one of the most widely endorsed principles needs considerable specification and refinement before it can be used. Moreover, the PP is an approach or guide to utilizing scientific evidence in social or legal decision-making contexts. In this it does not differ in kind from other approaches to using factual information such as in the law. The law provides some models for different strategies to guide decision-making under uncertainty when factual issues cannot be resolved with certainty. These in turn can help guide the formulation of different versions of PP and help clarify some presuppositions of the principle. Once some plausible versions of PP are articulated, I suggest some applications to existing environmental problems.     

Behavioral and pharmacological variables affecting risky choice in rats.

The effects of manipulations of response requirement, intertrial interval (ITI), and psychoactive drugs (ethanol, phencyclidine, and d-amphetamine) on lever choice under concurrent fixed-ratio schedules were investigated in rats. Responding on the "certain' lever produced three 45-mg pellets, whereas responding on the "risky" lever produced either 15 pellets (p = .33) or no pellets (p .67). Rats earned all food during the session, which ended after 12 forced trials and 93 choice trials or 90 min, whichever occurred first. When the response requirement was increased from 1 to 16 and the ITI was 20 s, percentage of risky choice was inversely related to fixed-ratio value. When only a single response was required but the ITI was manipulated between 20 and 120 s (with maximum session duration held constant), percentage of risky choice was directly related to length of the ITI. The effects of the drugs were investigated first at an ITI of 20 s, when risky choice was low for most rats, and then at an ITI of 80 s, when risky choice was higher for most rats. Ethanol usually decreased risky choice. Phencyclidine did not usually affect risky choice when the ITI was 20 s but decreased it in half the rats when the ITI was 80 s. For d-amphetamine, the effects appeared to he related to baseline probability of risky choice; that is, low probabilities were increased and high probabilities were decreased. Although increase in risky choice as a function of the ITI is at variance with previous ITI data, it is consistent with foraging data showing that risk aversion decreases as food availability decreases. The pharmacological manipulations showed that drug effects on risky choice may be influenced by the baseline probability of risky choice, just as drug effects can be a function of baseline response rate.     

Pathways to Risk Among Inner-City African-American Adolescent Females: The Influence of Gang Membership

Differential rates of participation in three categories of risk behaviors (i.e., sexual activity, substance use, violence) were explored, comparing gang members to nonmembers, within a sample of 1,143 inner-city African American adolescent females. The relationship between gang membership and risk behavior also was examined, by exploring the association between a variety of microsystemic influences (e.g., gang, family, school) and participation in risk behaviors. MANOVA analyses indicated that gang members, relative to nonmembers, reported higher rates of participation in each of the three categories of risk behaviors. Stepwise linear regression analyses indicated that gang membership was the variable with the most consistent predictive ability, across all categories of risk, as it entered early in all equations and remained in all three final models after controlling for other statistically significant contextual variables. Findings suggest that intervention efforts aimed at reducing adolescent females' participation in sexual activity, substance use, and violence should consider the influence of gang membership on the participation in these behaviors.     

Applying Utilization Management Principles to a Comprehensive Service System for Children with Emotional and Behavioral Disorders and Their Families: A Feasibility Study

The Comprehensive Services Act for At Risk Youth and Families of Virginia (CSA), is a service, funding, and organizational reform initiative designed to improve the provision of child centered and family focused services within a community setting. We conducted this study in order to assess the feasibility of applying utilization management principles to the CSA in order to improve the appropriateness, quality, and cost effectiveness of this service delivery system. Data were gathered through focus groups, surveys, clinical profiling, and analysis of costs, and service utilization. While overall program costs increased since inception of the program, the costs per child served rose less than the rate of inflation. CSA appeared to be serving children with a high degree of emotional and behavioral difficulties. There was considerable variation among localities in placement patterns. A majority of survey and focus group respondents were willing to consider the application of utilization management principles to the CSA as long as decision making remained within localities. We concluded that there is a constructive role for utilization management approaches to improve the appropriateness and quality of services as well as enhancing efficiency in child mental health.     

Conduct Disorder in Girls: A Review of the Literature

The study of Conduct Disorder (CD) has primarily been limited to boys. The lack of research resulted from a premise that CD in girls was rare. However, CD in girls is a relatively common psychiatric diagnosis, and appears to be associated with several serious outcomes, such as Antisocial Personality Disorder and early pregnancy. Understanding gender differences in the course and severity of CD may lead to important information about etiology. Empirical studies on precursors, developmental course, risk factors and treatment for CD in girls are reviewed, while highlighting similarities and differences between girls and boys. Generally, CD symptoms in girls are stable. Precursors to CD in girls probably include Oppositional Defiant Disorder and temperamental factors, but also may include certain negative cognitions. What distinguishes CD in girls is the high risk they have to develop comorbid conditions, especially internalizing disorders. Risk factors for CD in girls partly overlap with those known for boys, but some factors appear to be highly salient for girls. Finally, there may be some significant effects of gender on treatment efficacy. Implications of these findings for future etiologic research are discussed.     

The Burden of Dementia: A Medical and Research Perspective

Alzheimer's disease remains the most common form of dementia. Dementia symptoms vary depending on individual personality, life experience, and social and cultural influences. As dementia progresses, involvement of multi-disciplinary health care professionals is needed to manage the disease. Alzheimer research is progressing rapidly. While 5% of all Alzheimer's disease may be genetically determined, the majority is not. Susceptibility genes can reveal the risk of contracting Alzheimer's disease. Early life risk factors such as education, nutrition, and vascular disease may increase the likelihood of dementia in later life. In the United States, two acetylcholinesterase inhibitors have been approved as cognitive enhancers. Possible prevention and symptomatic treatment interventions have focused on estrogen replacement therapy, antioxidants, and anti-inflammatory medications. Research advances have improved the clinical management of dementia. Ethical implications to the patient, family, and society are multiple and remain challenging.     

Improving staff nutritional practices in community-based group homes: evaluation, training, and management.

We evaluated the effectiveness of a staff training and management package on nutritional practices in two community-based group homes serving adults with developmental disabilities. Food storage, menu development, and meal preparation were trained in a multiple baseline format, followed by supervisor feedback. All staff behaviors increased after training and were maintained for up to 1 year. Biological indices reflected collateral improvements in the health of consumers, and surveys of staff and parents established social validity.     

On the nature of international sales and sales management research: a social network–analytic perspective

This research uses a combination of text mining, co-word analysis, and social network analysis (SNA) to review 132 international sales and sales management (ISSM) articles published between 1980 and 2017. The study provides a unique view of the past and future of ISSM research and provides three principal contributions. First, from a social network–analytic perspective, it offers a unique examination of the ways ISSM research topics are interconnected, as reflected by keyword network structure. Second, by conducting SNA across two periods (1980–1999 and 2000–2017) and examining the changes in network centrality measures, the study offers initial insights into the evolving nature of the ISSM literature. Third, the study reports keyword network disconnections (i.e., structural holes) to propose a fruitful agenda for future ISSM research. Taken together, this research offers a current perspective of the ISSM research domain's evolving nature.     

Risk and Prisoner's Dilemma: A Reinterpretation of Coombs' Re‐parameterization

We propose a model to measure risk in a prisoner's dilemma based on Coombs' (1973) re‐parameterization of the game as an individual risk decision‐making task that chooses between a gamble of cooperation and another gamble of defection. Specifically, we propose an index, r, to represent the risk associated with cooperation relative to defection. In conjunction with Rapoport's (1967) index of cooperation (K), our formulation of risk allows us to construct games that vary in risk (as indexed by r) while controlling for cooperativeness (as indexed by K). Following utility analysis that models risk seeking as a convex utility function and risk averse as a concave function, we predict that risk‐seeking people cooperate more in games that the cooperation choice is more risky, whereas risk‐averse people cooperate more in games that the cooperation choice is less risky. In the three studies that we varied game parameters, used different measures of risk orientation and prosocial orientation and used different experimental procedures, we found robust results supporting our predictions. Theoretical analysis of our formulation further suggests that risk and cooperativeness of a prisoner's dilemma game is not entirely independent. Games that have a higher cooperativeness index are necessarily more risky. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.