Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple trade-off condition for additive multiattribute utility

We show that only two simple trade-off judgments are sufficient to determine whether the multiplicative multiattribute model assumes its additive form, regardless of the number of attributes in the model. This additivity condition offers a useful alternative to the test based on multiattribute lotteries commonly presented in textbooks. It can make the determination of additivity easier and more reliable. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reducing ethnic prejudice by public campaigns: an evaluation of a present and a new campaign

Most Western governments consider it their responsibility to counteract ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and they sometimes instigate persuasive communication programmes to achieve this aim. Generally, these campaigns do not have the desired effects possibly because designers of such persuasive communication programs have ignored relevant social‐psychological theoretical insights concerning prejudice. In this experiment, a present campaign (launched by the British Commission for Racial Equality) and a new campaign (developed by us) were evaluated. We hypothesized that our campaign would lead to lower levels of prejudice than the present campaign, because when designing our campaign relevant theoretical insights were more sufficiently taken into account. White participants (n=190) were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions or to the control condition. Those in the experimental conditions were exposed to either the present campaign or the new campaign before completing a questionnaire about ethnic minorities. Participants in the control condition were not exposed to a campaign. Results supported the hypothesis and some implications for designing campaigns are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

个体解决三项系列问题的心理模型

该研究设计了2种实验条件,对360名6-19岁个体解决三项系列问题的能力发展进行了研究,旨在讨论个体解决三项系列问题的心理模型的发展问题,结果表明：(1)6-19岁个体对三项系列问题中有必然逻辑答案的题目的判断能力的发展速度比较平稳;(2)个体对三项系列问题中有必然逻辑答案的题目的判断能力先于对没有逻辑答案的题目,6-9岁个体对三项系列问题中没有必然逻辑答案的题目的判断能力的发展速度低于10岁以后的个体;(3)空间模型、语义模型、语义一空间混合模型和枢纽项比较模型是相互补充的,是在不同认知发展阶段依一定次序,按一定的阶段逐渐形成的,经历了5个不同的发展阶段,最终形成以枢纽项比较模型为核心、四种心理模型并存于个体的心理结构之中的复合模型。     

学前儿童在游戏中社交和认知类型发展的研究──中美跨文化比较

采用时间取样观察法,以录像对中美１５０名学前儿童在游戏中的社交和认知类型进行比较研究,结果表明：①学前儿童社会交往发展水平、认知发展水平、游戏难度随年龄的增长而提高;②学前儿童较高水平的认知游戏行为与较高水平的社会技能的发展相关联,社交水平与认知水平的发展相互影响;③中美学前儿童社交和认知能力发展进程具有一致性,游戏行为发展模式具有一致性;④中美学前儿童游戏的方式和内容、社交和认知水平存在显著差异,表明不同文化背景的制约性。     

Self‐reported discipline among Swedish parents of preschool children

Swedish mothers and fathers from 200 volunteer families (target child aged 1–6 years) were asked what they would do in five situations which called for either control or discipline. The Parental Discipline Interview (PDI) was scored for 18 possible responses. Both mothers and fathers reported a variety of discipline strategies. Firm Command and Redefine were reported most often, while Threat and Physical Punishment were reported least often. Analysis of Variance (ANOVAs) showed higher frequencies of Reasoning and Ignore and lower frequencies of Redefine for mothers than for fathers. Regression analyses showed that mothers that had less traditional attitudes and young children predicted the preference of Physical Restraint, as well as Distraction. Ignore was predicted for older, less active children of less educated mothers. Fathers having younger, less active daughters predicted the preference of Redefine. Even if parents do not have Physical Punishment at their disposal following the ‘aga‐law’, the results showed that they have not abdicated their parental authority. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysing multisource feedback with multilevel structural equation models: Pitfalls and recommendations from a simulation study

When multisource feedback instruments, for example, 360-degree feedback tools, are validated, multilevel structural equation models are the method of choice to quantify the amount of reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity. A non-standard multilevel structural equation model that incorporates self-ratings (level-2 variables) and others’ ratings from different additional perspectives (level-1 variables), for example, peers and subordinates, has recently been presented. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, we determine the minimal required sample sizes for this model. Model parameters are accurately estimated even with the smallest simulated sample size of 100 self-ratings and two ratings of peers and of subordinates. The precise estimation of standard errors necessitates sample sizes of 400 self-ratings or at least four ratings of peers and subordinates. However, if sample sizes are smaller, mainly standard errors concerning common method factors are biased. Interestingly, there are trade-off effects between the sample sizes of self-ratings and others’ ratings in their effect on estimation bias. The degree of convergent and discriminant validity has no effect on the accuracy of model estimates. The χ² test statistic does not follow the expected distribution. Therefore, we suggest using a corrected level-specific standardized root mean square residual to analyse model fit and conclude with further recommendations for applied organizational research.     

Emotion Regulation Strategies in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Panic Disorder

Emotion regulation (ER) has been incorporated into many models of psychopathology, but it has not been examined directly in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/A). In this study, a preliminary model of ER in CBT for PD/A is proposed based on existing theories, and several propositions of the model are tested. We hypothesized that increases in cognitive reappraisal would precede decreases in biased cognitions, decreases in expressive suppression would follow decreases in biased cognitions, and a reduction in symptom severity would follow decreases in expressive suppression. Twenty-nine patients who received CBT for PD/A completed weekly self-report measures of symptom severity, anxiety sensitivity, reappraisal and expressive suppression. In addition, patients were compared to a matched normal sample. Cross-lagged analyses partially supported the hypotheses. Reappraisal did not change until late stages of therapy and was generally not associated with treatment outcome. Suppression decreased significantly and exhibited a reciprocal relationship with biased cognitions. Symptom reduction followed decreases in suppression as hypothesized. However, patients did not differ in ER from matched controls at either pre- or posttreatment. Results suggest the important distinction between reappraisal and appraisal, and stress the role of session-by-session decreases in suppression as a predictor of symptom reduction.     

Nature vs. nurture is nonsense: On the necessity of an integrated genetic,social, developmental,and personality psychology

The field of behavioural genetics unambiguously demonstrates that heritable individual differences exist and are important in explaining human behaviour. Despite this, some psychological perspectives ignore this research. If we wish to comprehensively understand the impact of parenting, the environment, or any social factor, however, we must engage with genetics. In this article, I review research that reveals that genes affect not only our personalities, but the way that we understand and react to the social world. Studies further reveal that notable life events are in part explained by genetic variance. I detail how this could be the case through active, evocative, and passive genetic correlations, and go on to argue that all complex psychological traits are likely the result of multifaceted gene by environment interactions. A mistaken belief that genetic influence implies genetic essentialism, and is therefore tantamount to prejudice, is raised as possible reason why heritability is often ignored in the social sciences. The article concludes with practical suggestions for how we can embrace behavioural genetics as our methods struggle to match the divine complexity of human existence.     

Against all odds – is a more differentiated view of personality development in emerging adulthood needed? The case of young apprentices

Personality development in emerging adults who do not attend college after high school has been largely overlooked so far. In this study, we investigated personality development in emerging German adults (N_T1 = 1,886, M_ageT1 = 18.01 years, 29% female) undergoing vocational education and training (VET). The trainees were assessed at the start of VET, 1.5 years later, and another 1.5 years after that, just before graduation. Longitudinal latent change score analyses were applied. Bivariate analyses investigated life satisfaction and job strain as social and work‐related aspects that are potentially reciprocally related to personality development. Mean‐level personality changes included increases in neuroticism and decreases in agreeableness and conscientiousness in the first interval. In the second interval, neuroticism decreased and conscientiousness increased. Simultaneously, trainees reported a gradual decrease in extraversion and openness across the 3‐year time span. Personality, especially agreeableness and conscientiousness, emerged as a stronger predictor of changes in job strain and life satisfaction than vice versa. For example, more agreeable and more conscientious trainees subsequently showed increases in life satisfaction. Trainees reporting higher job strain subsequently showed decreases in agreeableness. Trajectories of personality development partly support the maturity principle that has been established in many college student samples.