Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach to management decision-making

Bayesian decision theory and inference have left a deep and indelible mark on the literature on management decision-making. There is however an important issue that the machinery of classical Bayesianism is ill equipped to deal with, that of “unknown unknowns” or, in the cases in which they are actualised, what are sometimes called “Black Swans”. This issue is closely related to the problems of constructing an appropriate state space under conditions of deficient foresight about what the future might hold, and our aim is to develop a theory and some of the practicalities of state space elaboration that addresses these problems. Building on ideas originally put forward by Bacon (1620), we show how our approach can be used to build and explore the state space, how it may reduce the extent to which organisations are blindsided by Black Swans, and how it ameliorates various well-known cognitive biases.     

Nozick's experience machine is dead,long live the experience machine!

Robert Nozick's experience machine thought experiment (Nozick's scenario) is widely used as the basis for a “knockdown” argument against all internalist mental state theories of well-being. Recently, however, it has been convincingly argued that Nozick's scenario should not be used in this way because it elicits judgments marred by status quo bias and other irrelevant factors. These arguments all include alternate experience machine thought experiments, but these scenarios also elicit judgments marred by status quo bias and other irrelevant factors. In this paper, several experiments are conducted in order to create and test a relatively bias-free experience machine scenario. It is argued that if an experience machine thought experiment is used to evaluate internalist mental state theories of well-being, then this relatively bias-free scenario should be used over any of the existing scenarios. Unlike the existing experience machine scenarios, when this new scenario is used to assess internalist mental state theories of well-being, it does not provide strong evidence to refute or endorse them.     

Moral error theories and folk metaethics

In this paper, I distinguish between two error theories of morality: one couched in terms of truth (ET1); the other in terms of justification (ET2). I then present two arguments: the Poisoned Presupposition Argument for ET1; and the Evolutionary Debunking Argument for ET2. I go on to show how assessing these arguments requires paying attention to empirical moral psychology, in particular, work on folk metaethics. After criticizing extant work, I suggest avenues for future research.     

Gettier made ESEE

Previous research in experimental philosophy has suggested that moral judgments can influence the ordinary application of a number of different concepts, including attributions of knowledge. But should epistemologists care? The present set of studies demonstrate that this basic effect can be extended to overturn intuitions in some of the most theoretically central thought experiments in contemporary epistemology: Gettier cases. Furthermore, experiment 3 shows that this effect is unlikely to be mediated by a simple desire to blame, suggesting that a correct psychological account of ordinary knowledge attribution may include moral judgment.     

Abduction by Philosophers: Reorienting Philosophical Methodology

A reorientation is needed in methodological debate about the role of intuitions in philosophy. Methodological debate has lost sight of the reason why it makes sense to focus on questions about intuitions when thinking about the methods or epistemology of philosophy. The problem is an approach to methodology that focuses almost exclusively on questions about some evidential role that intuitions may or may not play in philosophers’ arguments. A new approach is needed. Approaching methodological questions about the role of intuitions in philosophy with an abductive model of philosophical inquiry in mind will help ensure the debate doesn't lose sight of what motivates the debate.     

Data Analytic Advances That Bridge the Scientist-Practitioner Gap

In this commentary, I advance the view that the scientist-practitioner gap is partly due to the research designs commonly used in psychotherapy research. Specifically, I believe that randomized controlled trials, which are important for establishing treatment efficacy and as leverage when making the case for the value of psychotherapy in relation to various stakeholders, are limited for further development of clinical theories. Instead, I find recent advances in cross-lagged panel modeling to be both clinically intuitive and stronger for causal inference than most other nonexperimental designs. In addition to discussing causal inference and clinical interpretation of cross-lagged panel models, I discuss the potential of improving mediation analysis, personalization of research, and studying issues of clinical timing. Finally, I briefly discuss some limitations of cross-lagged panel models. It is my belief that the use of these data analytic advances can make empirical research better live up to the innovations in Beck’s work.     

A conceptual model for mental health and performance of North American athletes: A mixed methods study

ObjectiveThe demands of sport create psychological and physical challenges for athletes, making it essential to understand what factors contribute to mental health and performance optimization in sport. The purpose of this mixed-methods investigation was to develop a conceptual model for mental health and performance of North American athletes.MethodForty-three experienced athletes, coaches, and sport professionals identified, sorted, and rated 113 behaviors, thoughts, and feelings that contribute to optimal mental health and performance for athletes. Using Multidimensional Scaling, the research team created a two-dimensional point map of participant responses. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis was then used to reveal underlying clusters in the data.FindingsSeven clusters emerged from the data: Stress Management, Mental Skills, Self-Awareness, Managing Setbacks, Intentional Practice, Team Relationships, and Social Support. Though all clusters were rated as important to mental health and/or performance, the Managing Setbacks cluster displayed high importance ratings for both mental health and performance.ConclusionOur preliminary findings suggest a comprehensive approach to athlete thoughts, feelings, and behaviors contributes to optimal mental health and performance for North American athletes.     

Perceived optimality of competing solutions to the Euclidean travelling salesperson problem

The Travelling Salesperson Problem (TSP) is a nondeterministic-polynomial hard (NP-hard) combinatorial problem that occurs in a wide range of industrial domains, including logistics, route finding, and computer wiring. Interestingly, despite the problem’s inherent computational difficulty, when presented in Euclidean space (ETSP), human participants can produce close-to-optimal solutions in near-linear time. However, when asked to compare and select the most optimum solution from a set of pre-defined competing solution options, participants can struggle. In this study we investigate this paradox by asking participants to compare four closed-loop Euclidean TSP solutions, in order to determine which solution they perceived to have the most optimal tour cost. We hypothesise that the extracted geometric properties have an effect on stimulus selection in a discrimination task (selection or no selection). Accordingly, we extracted four geometric properties from competing stimuli in order to create a perceptual activation function. Predictive analytics demonstrated that a classification model could identify the most optimal solution 97% of the time using the perceptual activation scores alone, yet human participants only correctly determined the most optimal solution 47% of the time. Mixed-effects models suggest that ‘likelihood of stimulus selection’ can be modelled as a function of the weighted coefficients of competing perceptual activation scores within each trial; however only a small amount of the variance is explained by these perceptual activation scores. Finally, a drift–diffusion model was used to create a theoretical framework of how likelihood of stimulus selection is influenced by competing perceptual activators. Our study highlights a novel way of extracting and analysing the importance of geometric properties that influence ETSP discrimination tasks, and links this analysis to human behaviour when discriminating between competing ETSP solutions.     

情绪的身体感觉：基于身体感觉地图（BSMs）与主观报告

关于不同情绪是否对应不同的生理反应一直存在争议。Nummenmma等人（2014）使用自创的emBODY工具,发现每种情绪都有其独特的身体感觉地图（BSMs）。本研究以中国大学生为被试,以emBODY为研究工具绘制快乐、爱、恐惧、焦虑四种情绪的BSMs,并要求被试口头报告BSMs所反映的身体感觉。结果发现,四种情绪具有不同的身体感觉,体现为BSMs的差异与主观报告的差异。质性资料分析发现BSMs所反映的身体感觉不仅包括生理反应、也包括认知、感受和行为倾向,这为情绪与身体的关系提供了新的证据。被试对身体部位活动性增强或减弱的理解不一致、只呈现身体的一面等是BSMs作为研究工具的潜在局限,未来研究需要做出改进。