The effects of a high-probability instruction sequence and response-independent reinforcer delivery on child compliance

We compared the effects of a high-probability (high-p) instruction sequence and a fixed-time (FT) schedule of reinforcement on the compliance of 2 typically developing children. A multielement experimental design with a reversal component was implemented according to a multiple baseline across participants arrangement. Both the high-p and FT conditions resulted in increased compliance for both participants during the multielement sessions. These results suggest that it may be possible to increase compliance without a response requirement of the type arranged in the high-p instruction sequence.     

Notes on discounting

In general, if a variable can be expressed as a function of its own maximum value, that function may be called a discount function. Delay discounting and probability discounting are commonly studied in psychology, but memory, matching, and economic utility also may be viewed as discounting processes. When they are so viewed, the discount function obtained is hyperbolic in form. In some cases the effective discounting variable is proportional to the physical variable on which it is based. For example, in delay discounting, the physical variable, delay (D), may enter into the hyperbolic equation as kD. In many cases, however, the discounting data are not well described with a single-parameter discount function. A much better fit is obtained when the effective variable is a power function of the physical variable (kDS in the case of delay discounting). This power-function form fits the data of delay, probability, and memory discounting as well as other two-parameter discount functions and is consistent with both the generalized matching law and maximization of a constant-elasticity-of-substitution utility     

Rate, Probability and Matching: Comments on ��The Identities Hidden in the Matching Laws, and Their Uses�� by David Thorne

David Thorne's (2010) article, “The Identities Hidden In The Matching Laws, And Their Uses” performs a valuable service in pointing out alternative expressions of matching. However, some identities tend to obscure rather than illuminate empirical relationships. Three such problematic instances are discussed: interresponse time as a function of interval and ratio schedule parameters; probability equality as implying rate matching; the apparent simplicity of probabilistic functions, as opposed to response rate functions, of reinforcement rate.     

Three decades of lay epistemics: The why,how, and who of knowledge formation

A conceptual integration and review are presented of three separate research programmes informed by the theory of lay epistemics (Kruglanski, 1989 Kruglanski, A. W. 1989. Lay epistemics and human knowledge: Cognitive and motivational bases, New York: Plenum. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). They respectively address the “why”, “how”, and “who” questions about human knowledge formation. The “why” question is treated in work on the need for cognitive closure that propels epistemic behaviour and affects individual, interpersonal, and group phenomena. The “how” question is addressed in work on the unimodel (Kruglanski, Pierro, Mannetti, Erb, & Chun, 2007 Kruglanski, A. W., Pierro, A., Mannetti, L., Erb, H. P. and Chun, W. Y. 2007. “On the parameters of social judgement”. In Advances in experimental social psychology, Edited by: Zanna, M. P. Vol. 39, 255–296. New York: Academic Press.  [Google Scholar]) depicting the process of drawing conclusions from the “information given”. The “who” question is addressed in work on “epistemic authority” highlighting the centrality of source effects (including oneself as a source) in human epistemic behaviour. These separate research paradigms explore facets of epistemic behaviour that jointly produce human knowledge, of essential significance to people's’ individual and social functioning.     

Imprecise Epistemic Values and Imprecise Credences

A number of recent arguments purport to show that imprecise credences are incompatible with accuracy-first epistemology. If correct, this conclusion suggests a conflict between evidential and alethic epistemic norms. In the first part of the paper, I claim that these arguments fail if we understand imprecise credences as indeterminate credences. In the second part, I explore why agents with entirely alethic epistemic values can end up in an indeterminate credal state. Following William James, I argue that there are many distinct alethic values that a rational agent can have. Furthermore, such an agent is rationally permitted not to have settled on one fully precise value function. This indeterminacy in value will sometimes result in indeterminacy in epistemic behaviour—that is, because the agent’s values aren’t settled, what she believes might not be.     

Knowledge-telling and knowledge-transforming arguments in mock jurors' verdict justifications

According to the “story model” a juror constructs an implicit mental model of a story telling what happened as the basis for the verdict choice. But the explicit justification of a verdict choice could take the form of a story (knowledge telling) or the form of a relational (knowledge-transforming) argument structure that brings together diverse, non-chronologically related pieces of evidence. The study investigates whether people tend towards knowledge telling or knowledge transforming, and whether use of these argument structure types are related to skilled argument and epistemic understanding. A sample of people on jury duty chose and justified verdicts in two abridged cases. Participants tended to display the same argument structure and argument skill across cases. Those using knowledge-transforming structures were more successful at the juror argument skills task and had a higher level of epistemic understanding. The discussion suggests that jurors approach their task with an epistemic orientation towards knowledge telling or knowledge transforming.     

Can membership-functions capture the directionality of verbal probabilities?

Verbal probabilities are a common mean for communicating risk and uncertainties in many decision-making settings (e.g., finance, medicine, military). They are considered directional because they elicit a focus on either the outcome occurrence (e.g., there is a chance) or on its non-occurrence (e.g., it is unlikely). According to a quantitative perspective, directionality is dependent on the vague probabilistic meaning conveyed by verbal probabilities—e.g., p(outcome) > .50 = > focus on outcome occurrence. In contrast a more qualitative perspective suggests that directionality depends on contextual factors. The present study tested whether the directionality of verbal probabilities was determined by their vague probabilistic meaning, by contextually manipulated variables (i.e., representativeness and base rate), or by a combination of both. Participants provided their own expressions to describe the guilt of a suspect and then assessed the vague probabilistic meaning and directionality associated with those expressions. Results showed that directionality was mainly determined by the vague probabilistic meaning but also by the base rate of guilt. Although attention focus on the occurrence or the non-occurrence of the target outcome is dependent on vague probabilistic meaning, it cannot be fully accounted for by it.     

The effectiveness of feedback in multiple-cue probability learning

How effective are different types of feedback in helping us to learn multiple contingencies? This article attempts to resolve a paradox whereby, in comparison to simple outcome feedback, additional feedback either fails to enhance or is actually detrimental to performance in nonmetric multiple-cue probability learning (MCPL), while in contrast the majority of studies of metric MCPL reveal improvements at least with some forms of feedback. In three experiments we demonstrate that if feedback assists participants to infer cue polarity then it can in fact be effective in nonmetric MCPL. Participants appeared to use cue polarity information to adopt a linear judgement strategy, even though the environment was nonlinear. The results reconcile the paradoxical contrast between metric and nonmetric MCPL and support previous findings of people's tendency to assume linearity and additivity in probabilistic cue learning.     

Estimating the effect of word predictability on eye movements in Chinese reading using latent semantic analysis and transitional probability

Latent semantic analysis (LSA) and transitional probability (TP), two computational methods used to reflect lexical semantic representation from large text corpora, were employed to examine the effects of word predictability on Chinese reading. Participants' eye movements were monitored, and the influence of word complexity (number of strokes), word frequency, and word predictability on different eye movement measures (first-fixation duration, gaze duration, and total time) were examined. We found influences of TP on first-fixation duration and gaze duration and of LSA on total time. The results suggest that TP reflects an early stage of lexical processing while LSA reflects a later stage.