Objective evidence and absence: comment on Sober

Elliott Sober argues that the statistical slogan “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” cannot be taken literally: it must be interpreted charitably as claiming that the absence of evidence is (typically) not very much evidence of absence. I offer an alternative interpretation, on which the slogan claims that absence of evidence is (typically) not objective evidence of absence. I sketch a definition of objective evidence, founded in the notion of an epistemically objective likelihood, and I show that in Sober’s paradigm case, the slogan can, on this understanding, be sustained.

"大七"人格结构模型下的汉族、纳西族人格结构比较

采用中国人人格形容词评定量表(简式)对985名成年汉族和207名纳西族被试进行测量,结果显示:汉族的人格结构模型符合“大七人格结构模型”,而纳西族则不符合。纳西族在“外向活跃”、“严谨自制”、“温顺随和”、“淡泊诚信”等四个人格结构因子上的得分均显著高于汉族。     

Relatedness of identities and emotional closeness with parents across and within cultures

Differences in emotional- and identity-relatedness with parents were explored across two cultural groups (863 university students from the USA and Turkey, representing individualist and collectivist societies, respectively) in Study 1 , and across two socioeconomic status (SES) groups (353 high school students from the upper and lower SES in Turkey) in Study 2 . In both studies, within-cultural differences in emotional- and identity-relatedness with parents were also explored in terms of: (i) self-directed and other-directed value orientations; and (ii) self-types, as suggested by the Balanced Integration-Differentiation Model. Results indicated cultural groups to be quite similar in emotional-relatedness, but to differ in relatedness of identities, with Turks reporting more related identities. Similarly, in Turkey, SES seemed to have more impact on identities than on emotional closeness, the lower SES adolescents reporting more relatedness with parents than upper SES adolescents. Thus, relatedness of identities appeared to be more important than emotional relatedness in differentiating between cultural and SES contexts. Results involving different self-types and value orientations pointed to both cross-cultural similarities and within-cultural diversity in the two domains of relatedness. Theoretical implications of cross- and within-culture differences in emotional- and identity-relatedness with parents are discussed.     

Automatic verification of multi-agent systems by model checking via ordered binary decision diagrams

We present a methodology for the verification of multi-agent systems, whose properties are specified by means of a modal logic that includes a temporal, an epistemic, and a modal operator to reason about correct behaviour of agents. The verification technique relies on model checking via ordered binary decision diagrams. We present an implementation and report on experimental results for two scenarios: the bit transmission problem with faults and the protocol of the dining cryptographers.     

Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence

The ASC model of choice and confidence in general knowledge proposes that respondents first Assess the familiarity of presented options, and then use the high-familiarity option as a retrieval cue to Search memory for the purposes of Constructing an explanation about why that high-familiarity option is true. The ASC process implies that overconfidence results in part from a tendency to fixate on the high-familiarity option, to the neglect of the other option. If this implication is true, then judgment tasks requiring respondents to evaluate each option independently should result in reduced overconfidence as compared with standard judgment tasks. Two experiments tested this implication, and found that confidence and overconfidence were reduced when respondents evaluated options independently. The findings support the proposal that option fixation contributes to overconfidence, and also clarify the limitations of random error explanations of overconfidence.     

小学儿童互选友谊的发展趋势及攻击行为的影响：3年追踪研究

对小学3、4年级的285名儿童进行了3年追踪调查,分析了儿童分别与男、女生互选友谊数的变化趋势及其在个体间的差异,探讨了外部攻击和关系攻击分别对两类互选友谊数的影响。结果表明：（1）儿童的男、女生互选友谊数在3年时间内都有显著的增加趋势,并表现出显著的性别差异,儿童与同性互选友谊数显著多于他们与异性的互选友谊数,男生与女生互选友谊数的增加速度比女生与女生互选友谊数增加速度慢,儿童与男生的互选友谊数越多,他/她与女生的互选友谊数就越少,表明了性别隔离现象的存在。（2）在控制了关系攻击的影响后,儿童的外部攻击对他们在各时间点测得的与女生的互选友谊数有显著的消极影响,而对他们与男生的互选友谊数影响不显著;在控制了外部攻击的影响后,儿童的关系攻击对他们在各时间点测得的与女生的互选友谊数有显著的积极影响,而对他们与男生的互选友谊数影响不显著。这说明外部攻击和关系攻击对儿童互选友谊数的影响存在性别差异     

人格六焦点模型及老化研究

Hooker在人格三水平理论的基础上提出了人格六焦点模型,其中3个焦点为特质、个体行为构念、生活故事,它们构成了人格结构的内在本质。另外3个焦点为状态、自我调节和自我叙述,它们是与结构相对应的加工过程。人格六焦点模型为与之相关的老化研究提供了一个解释的框架。     

因果力比较范式下对效力PC理论的检验

在用图形方式集中呈现信息的条件下,用因果力大小比较的实验范式检验效力PC理论。233名大学生被试对不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力做大小比较判断。结果发现,对单一因果关系因果力大小的比较判断具有以下3个特点：（1）不对称性：在预防原因条件下的因果力判断一般符合效力PC理论,而在产生原因条件下的因果力判断一般不符合效力PC理论;（2）在同时变化协变值DP和结果基率P(E|~C)的产生原因条件下,多数被试使用DP规则。这与概率对比模型的预测相一致,而不支持效力PC理论;（3）在固定协变值DP而只变化结果基率P(E|~C)的产生原因条件下,多数被试使用变异比RP规则。这是目前所有的因果推理理论都不能解释的现象。     

心理求助行为：研究现状及阶段－决策模型

回顾了国内外心理求助研究的进展和现状,指出了目前研究中存在的局限。在文献分析和前期研究基础上提出心理求助行为的阶段－决策模型,该模型将心理求助视为一个内部决策过程,包括连续的三个阶段,分别为问题知觉阶段、自助评估阶段、他助评估阶段。在不同的求助阶段,影响求助行为的因素及其影响力不同。文章简要介绍了基于这个理论模型所作的初步研究     

浅析农村卫生保健改革的若干难点与起点

农村医疗单靠政府行政预算拨付进行运作管理,只能起到临时输血的功能.卫生健康水平的提高,一方面取决于经济收入水平的增长,另一方面则取决于政府公共财政支持力度和行政管理的有效性.资金是基础,制度是保证,政府需通过工具性的制度创新,减少国家对农民的制度排挤,充分发挥政府调控和监管作用,改善农村医疗面临的财政、技术、人员严重不足的问题.