Everything Else Being Equal: A Modal Logic for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ceteris Paribus</Emphasis> Preferences

This paper presents a new modal logic for ceteris paribus preferences understood in the sense of “all other things being equal”. This reading goes back to the seminal work of Von Wright in the early 1960’s and has returned in computer science in the 1990’s and in more abstract “dependency logics” today. We show how it differs from ceteris paribus as “all other things being normal”, which is used in contexts with preference defeaters. We provide a semantic analysis and several completeness theorems. We show how our system links up with Von Wright’s work, and how it applies to game-theoretic solution concepts, to agenda setting in investigation, and to preference change. We finally consider its relation with infinitary modal logics.     

Adaptive logics using the minimal abnormality strategy are $$\Pi^1_1$$ -complex

In this article complexity results for adaptive logics using the minimal abnormality strategy are presented. It is proven here that the consequence set of some recursive premise sets is -complete. So, the complexity results in (Horsten and Welch, Synthese 158:41–60, 2007) are mistaken for adaptive logics using the minimal abnormality strategy.     

On representational content and format in core numerical cognition

Carey has argued that there is a system of core numerical cognition – the analog magnitude (AM) system – in which (approximate) cardinal numbers are explicitly represented in iconic format. While the existence of this system is beyond doubt, this paper aims to show that its representations cannot have the combination of features attributed to them by Carey. According to the argument from abstractness, the representation of the (approximate) cardinal number of a collection of individuals as such requires the representation of individuals as such, and this in turn requires non-iconic format, from which it is concluded that the explicit representation of the (approximate) cardinal number of some individuals requires non-iconic representational format. In support of the first premise, an account is given of what approximate cardinal numbers might be (namely, quantifiers), and in support of the second, a direct argument is articulated and defended. Finally, in response to an objection, a second argument (from parts) for the central thesis is provided. While the discussion is couched in the terms of Carey’s work, the considerations it adduces are perfectly general, and the conclusion should therefore be taken into consideration by all those aiming to characterize the AM system.     

Equivalent Dynamic Models

Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.     

Planning Beyond the Next Trial in Adaptive Experiments: A Dynamic Programming Approach

Experimentation is at the heart of scientific inquiry. In the behavioral and neural sciences, where only a limited number of observations can often be made, it is ideal to design an experiment that leads to the rapid accumulation of information about the phenomenon under study. Adaptive experimentation has the potential to accelerate scientific progress by maximizing inferential gain in such research settings. To date, most adaptive experiments have relied on myopic, one‐step‐ahead strategies in which the stimulus on each trial is selected to maximize inference on the next trial only. A lingering question in the field has been how much additional benefit would be gained by optimizing beyond the next trial. A range of technical challenges has prevented this important question from being addressed adequately. This study applies dynamic programming (DP), a technique applicable for such full‐horizon, “global” optimization, to model‐based perceptual threshold estimation, a domain that has been a major beneficiary of adaptive methods. The results provide insight into conditions that will benefit from optimizing beyond the next trial. Implications for the use of adaptive methods in cognitive science are discussed.     

大学生自尊与社会适应的关系:积极核心图式与同伴依恋的链式中介效应分析

采用自尊量表、简明核心图式量表、同伴依恋量表和中国大学生适应量表调查华中三省5所大学大一至大三年级共459名大学生,运用偏差校正的百分位Bootstrap方法探索大学生积极核心图式和同伴依恋在自尊和社会适应之间的链式中介作用。结果发现：（1）大学生自尊、积极核心图式、同伴依恋与社会适应两两之间均呈显著正相关;（2）大学生自尊对社会适应的直接效应和间接效应均显著。间接效应包括了三条路径：通过积极核心图式的中介作用、通过同伴依恋的中介作用以及通过积极核心图式-同伴依恋的链式中介作用。这一结论有助于理解自尊对社会适应的作用机制,为未来大学生社会适应能力的提升提供建议。     

Intergenerational and Partner Influences on Fathers’ Negative Discipline

Recent studies have found significant but relatively modest associations in parenting across generations, suggesting additional influences on parenting beyond experiences in the family of origin. The present prospective, cross-generational study of at-risk men (Oregon Youth Study) focuses on fathers' negative discipline practices with their 2- to 3-year-old children. The theoretical model is based on a dynamic developmental systems approach to problematic family functioning, which points to the importance of developmental systems, including family risk context and key influential social interactional systems, and emphasizes influence that is directly pertinent to the outcome of interest. Path modeling indicated that the men's poor and harsh discipline practices were predicted by partners' problem behavior (substance use and antisocial behavior) and negative discipline practices, as well as by poor discipline experienced in the family of origin; men's own problem behavior, ages at which they became fathers, and family socioeconomic status were controlled. Findings indicate the importance of focusing on influence dynamics across parents.     

"认知革命"与"第二代认知科学"刍议

以计算隐喻为核心假设的传统认知心理学以及联结主义心理学均不能克服离身心智（disembodied mind）的根本缺陷,当代认知心理学正面临着新的范型转换．以具身性和情境性为重要特征的第二代认知科学将日受重视,并促使认知神经科学进入新的发展阶段。作者认为在身心关系上应该坚持生理只是心理的必要条件,而非充分条件的赢场,克服生理还原论的危险;应该重新审视基于二元论的生理机制这种说法;心理学传统中的科学主义和人文主义有可能在第二代认知科学强调认知情境性的基础上达成某种融合;第一代认知科学对意识的研究是不成功的,因为对知觉、注意、记忆、思维等心理过程的研究不能代替意识的研究,同时还应避免以意识内容的研究取代心理学研究的倾向、第二代认知科学中的动力系统理论关于变量（因素）之间的偶合（coupling）关系完全不同于变差分析巾的变量之间的交互作用关系,其动力系统模式可能更有助于破解意识的产生（涌现）之谜,并引发心理学研究的方法论的变革新潮,第二代认知科学的兴起将启发人们对身心关系、生理还原论、意识研究在心理学中的地位、人工智能对心智完全模拟的可能性等重夫问题重新思考。     

Uncovering Dynamical Properties in the Emotional System of Married Couples

This study explored dyadic patterns in 23 married couples’ affect during communication. Spouses discussed a recent offense in their relationship and then were unexpectedly prompted to transition to a positive topic. Spouses then engaged in a video recall procedure, providing a continuous rating of their affect via computer. Couples’ affect data were plotted on 5-by-5 state space grids. Cluster analyses revealed five distinct affect patterns that exhibited dynamic properties, but were unrelated to marital satisfaction.     

Logic and Reasoning: do the facts matter?

Modern logic is undergoing a cognitive turn, side-stepping Frege’s ‘antipsychologism’. Collaborations between logicians and colleagues in more empirical fields are growing, especially in research on reasoning and information update by intelligent agents. We place this border-crossing research in the context of long-standing contacts between logic and empirical facts, since pure normativity has never been a plausible stance. We also discuss what the fall of Frege’s Wall means for a new agenda of logic as a theory of rational agency, and what might then be a viable understanding of ‘psychologism’ as a friend rather than an enemy of logical theory. Edited by Hannes Leitgeb