An estimate of the covariance between variables which are not jointly observed

Situations sometimes arise in which variables collected in a study are not jointly observed. This typically occurs because of study design. An example is an equating study where distinct groups of subjects are administered different sections of a test. In the normal maximum likelihood function to estimate the covariance matrix among all variables, elements corresponding to those that are not jointly observed are unidentified. If a factor analysis model holds for the variables, however, then all sections of the matrix can be accurately estimated, using the fact that the covariances are a function of the factor loadings. Standard errors of the estimated covariances can be obtained by the delta method. In addition to estimating the covariance matrix in this design, the method can be applied to other problems such as regression factor analysis. Two examples are presented to illustrate the method. This research was partially supported by NIMH grant MH5-4576     

Graphical regression models for polytomous variables

When modeling the relationship between two nominal categorical variables, it is often desirable to include covariates to understand how individuals differ in their response behavior. Typically, however, not all the relevant covariates are available, with the result that the measured variables cannot fully account for the associations between the nominal variables. Under the assumption that the observed and unobserved variables follow a homogeneous conditional Gaussian distribution, this paper proposesRC(M) regression models to decompose the residual associations between the polytomous variables. Based on Goodman's (1979, 1985)RC(M) association model, a distinctive feature ofRC(M) regression models is that they facilitate the joint estimation of effects due to manifest and omitted (continuous) variables without requiring numerical integration. TheRC(M) regression models are illustrated using data from the High School and Beyond study (Tatsuoka & Lohnes, 1988). This article was accepted for publication, when Willem J. Heiser was the Editor ofPsychometrika. This research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (#SBR96-17510 and #SBR94-09531) and the Bureau of Educational Research at the University of Illinois. We thank Jee-Seon Kim for comments and computational assistance.     

音乐表演训练对神经可塑性的影响:元分析研究

音乐表演是人类最复杂和精细的技能之一。通过激活似然性评估元分析,对音乐表演训练所诱发的神经可塑性进行探究。结果发现,音乐表演者与非音乐家在左侧小脑、双侧中央前回、双侧颞上回、左侧额下回、双侧顶下小叶以及右侧脑岛等脑区存在差异。这些脑区与听觉、运动以及多通道信息整合等加工有关。未来研究应从不同音乐表演训练诱发的神经适应性出发,进一步探究音乐表演训练与大脑可塑性之间的关联。     

结构方程模型中调节效应的标准化估计

回归分析和结构方程分析中,标准化估计对解释模型和比较效应大小有重要作用。对于调节效应模型（或交互效应模型）,通常的标准化估计没有意义。虽然显变量的调节效应模型标准化估计问题已经解决,但潜变量的调节效应模型标准化估计问题复杂得多。本文先介绍回归分析中显变量调节效应模型的标准化估计,然后提出了一种通过参数的原始估计和通常标准化估计来计算潜变量调节效应模型的“标准化”估计的方法,得到的“标准化”估计是尺度不变的,说明可以用“标准化”估计来解释和比较主效应和调节效应     

结合题目作答时间的计算机化自适应测验选题方法

计算机形式的测验能够记录考生在测验中的题目作答时间（Response Time, RT），作为一种重要的辅助信息来源，RT对于测验开发和管理具有重要的价值，特别是在计算机化自适应测验（Computerized Adaptive Testing, CAT）领域。本文简要介绍了RT在CAT选题方面应用并作以简评，分析了这些技术在实践中的可行性。最后，探讨了当前RT应用于CAT选题存在的问题以及可以进一步开展的研究方向。     

Audiovisual time-to-collision estimation for accelerating vehicles: The acoustic signature of electric vehicles impairs pedestrians' judgments

To avoid collisions, pedestrians intending to cross a road need to accurately estimate the time-to-collision (TTC) of an approaching vehicle. For TTC estimation, auditory information can be considered particularly relevant when the approaching vehicle accelerates. The sound of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICEVs) provides characteristic auditory information about the acceleration state (increasing rotational speed and engine load). However, for electric vehicles (EVs), the acoustic signature during acceleration is less salient. Although the auditory detection of EVs has been studied extensively, there is no research on potential effects of the altered acoustic signature of EVs on TTC estimation. To close this gap, we compared TTC estimates for ICEVs and for EVs with and without activated acoustic vehicle alerting system (AVAS). We implemented a novel interactive audiovisual virtual-reality system for studying the human perception of approaching vehicles. Using acoustic recordings of real vehicles as source signals, the dynamic spatial sound field corresponding to a vehicle approaching in an urban setting is generated based on physical modeling of the sound propagation between vehicle and pedestrian (listener) and is presented via sound field synthesis (higher-order Ambisonics). In addition to the auditory simulations, the scene was visually presented on a head-mounted display with head tracking. Participants estimated the TTC of vehicles that either approached at a constant speed or accelerated positively. In conditions with constant speed, TTC estimates for EVs with and without AVAS were similar to those for ICEVs. In contrast, for accelerating vehicles, there was a substantial effect of the vehicle type on the TTC estimates. For the EVs, the mean TTC estimates showed a significant overestimation. Thus, subjects on average perceived the time of arrival of the EV at their position as longer than it actually was. The extent of overestimation increased with acceleration and presented TTC. This pattern is similar to a first-order TTC estimation representing a failure to consider the acceleration, which is consistently reported in the literature for visual-only presentations of accelerating objects. In comparison, the overestimation of TTC was largely reduced for the accelerating ICEVs. The AVAS somewhat improved the TTC estimates for the accelerating EVs, but without reaching the same level of accuracy as for the ICEVs. In real traffic scenarios, overestimations of the TTC of approaching vehicles might lead to risky road-crossing decisions. Therefore, our finding that pedestrians are significantly less able to use the acoustic information emitted by accelerating EVs for their TTC judgments, compared to accelerating ICEVs, has important implications for road safety and for the design of AVAS technologies.     

Iterative Spatial Updating During Forward Linear Walking Revealed Using a Continuous Pointing Task

Abstract

The continuous pointing task uses target-directed pointing responses to determine how perceived distance traveled is estimated during forward linear walking movements. To more precisely examine the regulation of this online process, the current study measured upper extremity joint angles and step-cycle kinematics in full vision and no-vision continuous pointing movements. Results show perceptual under-estimation of traveled distance in no-vision trials compared to full vision trials. Additionally, parsing of the shoulder plane of elevation trajectories revealed discontinuities that reflected this perceptual under-estimation and that were most frequently coupled with the early portion of the right foot swing phase of the step-cycle. This suggests that spatial updating may be composed of discrete iterations that are associated with gait parameters.     

Analysis of Interactions and Nonlinear Effects with Missing Data: A Factored Regression Modeling Approach Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Abstract

When estimating multiple regression models with incomplete predictor variables, it is necessary to specify a joint distribution for the predictor variables. A convenient assumption is that this distribution is a multivariate normal distribution, which is also the default in many statistical software packages. This distribution will in general be misspecified if predictors with missing data have nonlinear effects (e.g., x²) or are included in interaction terms (e.g., x·z). In the present article, we introduce a factored regression modeling approach for estimating regression models with missing data that is based on maximum likelihood estimation. In this approach, the model likelihood is factorized into a part that is due to the model of interest and a part that is due to the model for the incomplete predictors. In three simulation studies, we showed that the factored regression modeling approach produced valid estimates of interaction and nonlinear effects in regression models with missing values on categorical or continuous predictor variables under a broad range of conditions. We developed the R package mdmb, which facilitates a user-friendly application of the factored regression modeling approach, and present a real-data example that illustrates the flexibility of the software.     

Spatio-temporal accident analysis for accident prevention in relation to behavioral factors in driving: The case of South Anatolian Motorway

Analyzing the pattern of traffic accidents on road segments can highlight the hazardous locations where the accidents occur frequently and help to determine problematic parts of the roads. The objective of this paper is to utilize accident hotspots to analyze the effect of different measures on the behavioral factors in driving. Every change in the road and its environment affects the choices of the driver and therefore the safety of the road itself. A spatio-temporal analysis of hotspots therefore can highlight the road segments where measures had positive or negative effects on the behavioral factors in driving. In this paper 2175 accidents resulted in injury or death on the South Anatolian Motorway in Turkey for the years between 2006 and 2009 are considered. The network-based kernel density estimation is used as the hotspot detection method and the K-function and the nearest neighbor distance methods are taken into account to check the significance of the hotspots. A chi-square test is performed to find out whether temporal changes on hotspots are significant or not. A comparison of characteristics related driver attributes like age, experience, etc. for accidents in hotspots vs. accidents outside of hotspots is performed to see if the temporal change of hotspots is caused by structural changes on the road. For a better understanding of the effects on the driver characteristics, the accidents are analyzed in five groups based on three different grouping schemes. In the first grouping approach, all accident data are considered. Then the accident data is grouped according to direction of the traffic flow. Lastly, the accident data is classified in terms of the vehicle type. The resultant spatial and temporal changes in the accident patterns are evaluated and changes on the road structure related to behavioral factors in driving are suggested.     

Fractions as percepts? Exploring cross-format distance effects for fractional magnitudes

This study presents evidence that humans have intuitive, perceptually based access to the abstract fraction magnitudes instantiated by nonsymbolic ratio stimuli. Moreover, it shows these perceptually accessed magnitudes can be easily compared with symbolically represented fractions. In cross-format comparisons, participants picked the larger of two ratios. Ratios were presented either symbolically as fractions or nonsymbolically as paired dot arrays or as paired circles. Response patterns were consistent with participants comparing specific analog fractional magnitudes independently of the particular formats in which they were presented. These results pose a challenge to accounts that argue human cognitive architecture is ill-suited for processing fractions. Instead, it seems that humans can process nonsymbolic ratio magnitudes via perceptual routes and without recourse to conscious symbolic algorithms, analogous to the processing of whole number magnitudes. These findings have important implications for theories regarding the nature of human number sense – they imply that fractions may in some sense be natural numbers, too.