Carroll’s Regress and the Epistemology of Logic

On an internalist account of logical inference, we are warranted in drawing conclusions from accepted premises on the basis of our knowledge of logical laws. Lewis Carroll’s regress challenges internalism by purporting to show that this kind of warrant cannot ground the move from premises to conclusion. Carroll’s regress vindicates a repudiation of internalism and leads to the espousal of a standpoint that regards our inferential practice as not being grounded on our knowledge of logical laws. Such a standpoint can take two forms. One can adopt either a broadly externalist model of inference or a sceptical stance. I will attempt, in what follows, to defend a version of internalism which is not affected by the regress. The main strategy will be to show that externalism and scepticism are not satisfying standpoints to adopt with regard to our inferential practice, and then to suggest an internalist alternative.     

Doubly Robust-Type Estimation for Covariate Adjustment in Latent Variable Modeling

Due to the difficulty in achieving a random assignment, a quasi-experimental or observational study design is frequently used in the behavioral and social sciences. If a nonrandom assignment depends on the covariates, multiple group structural equation modeling, that includes the regression function of the dependent variables on the covariates that determine the assignment, can provide reasonable estimates under the condition of correct specification of the regression function. However, it is usually difficult to specify the correct regression function because the dimensions of the dependent variables and covariates are typically large. Therefore, the propensity score adjustment methods have been proposed, since they do not require the specification of the regression function and have been applied to several applied studies. However, these methods produce biased estimates if the assignment mechanism is incorrectly specified. In order to make a more robust inference, it would be more useful to develop an estimation method that integrates the regression approach with the propensity score methodology. In this study we propose a doubly robust-type estimation method for marginal multiple group structural equation modeling. This method provides a consistent estimator if either the regression function or the assignment mechanism is correctly specified. A simulation study indicates that the proposed estimation method is more robust than the existing methods. This research was partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), 187-30406.     

Deductivism and the Informal Fallacies

This essay proposes and defends a general thesis concerning the nature of fallacies of reasoning. These in distinctive ways are all said to be deductively invalid. More importantly, the most accurate, complete and charitable reconstructions of these species and specimens of the informal fallacies are instructive with respect to the individual character of each distinct informal fallacy. Reconstructions of the fallacies as deductive invalidities are possible in every case, if deductivism is true, which means that in every case they should be formalizable in an expressively comprehensive formal symbolic deductive logic. The general thesis is illustrated by a detailed examination of Walter Burleigh's paradox in his c. 1323 work, De Puritate Artis Logicae Tractatus Longior (Longer Treatise on the Purity of Logic), as a challenge to the deductive validity of hypothetical syllogism. The paradox has the form, ‹If I call you a swine, then I call you an animal; if I call you an animal, then I speak truly; therefore, if I call you a swine, then I speak truly'. Several solutions to the problem are considered, and the inference is exposed as an instance of the common deductive fallacy of equivocation.     

小学儿童一维空间方位传递性推理能力的发展

研究了小学儿童一维空间方位传递性推理能力的发展水平及认知策略 ,同时 ,对心理模型理论进行了检验。被试为城市中等小学 7岁、9岁、11岁儿童各 2 4名 ,男女各半。 4种实验任务分别为三前提单模型、三前提双模型、四前提单模型和四前提双模型。采用个别实验 ,儿童在前提呈现的情况下进行推理。主要研究结果 :(1)从小学 7岁到 11岁 ,儿童的一维空间方位传递性推理能力明显提高 ,7岁儿童初步形成了一维空间方位推理能力 ,9岁和 11岁基本具有了这种能力 ;(2 )随着年龄增长 ,使用模型建构策略解决问题的儿童人次越来越多 ,绝大部分 11岁儿童都能使用这一策略进行推理。但即使儿童使用了模型建构策略 ,他们的推理成绩也没有反映出模型数量所造成的任务难度差异 ,即不符合心理模型理论关于模型数量的主要预期。     

Primate errors in transitive ‘inference’: a two-tier learning model

Transitive performance (TP) is a learning-based behaviour exhibited by a wide range of species, where if a subject has been taught to prefer A when presented with the pair AB but to prefer B when presented with the pair BC, then the subject will also prefer A when presented with the novel pair AC. Most explanations of TP assume that subjects recognize and learn an underlying sequence from observing the training pairs. However, data from squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) and young children contradict this, showing that when three different items (a triad) are drawn from the sequence, subjects' performance degrades systematically (McGonigle and Chalmers, Nature 267:694-696, 1977; Chalmers and McGonigle, Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 37:355-377, 1984; Harris and McGonigle, The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 47B:319-348, 1994). We present here the two-tier model, the first learning model of TP which accounts for this systematic performance degradation. Our model assumes primate TP is based on a general-purpose task learning system rather than a special-purpose sequence-learning system. It supports the hypothesis of Heckers et al. (Hippocampus 14:153-162, 2004) that TP is an expression of two separate general learning elements: one for associating actions and contexts, another for prioritising associations when more than one context is present. The two-tier model also provides explanations for why phased training is important for helping subjects learn the initial training pairs and why some subjects fail to do so. It also supports the Harris and McGonigle (The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 47B:319-348, 1994) explanation of why, once the training pairs have been acquired, subjects perform transitive choice automatically on two-item diads, but not when exposed to triads from the same sequence.     

阅读理解困难儿童的认知加工

阅读理解困难是阅读障碍的一个主要类型,近年来受到西方研究者的重视。阅读理解认知加工,核心是有层次的语义加工,理解困难儿童在词汇语义加工和篇章推理和整合上都存在落后。理解困难儿童的信息推理水平落后,可能原因来自两个方面：一方面是语音工作记忆缺陷导致推理加工能力缺陷,另一方面是阅读元认知缺陷导致阅读目的和理解监控发展不正常。这些缺陷之间复杂的关系,还需要进一步研究     

Explaining prompts children to privilege inductively rich properties

Four experiments with preschool-aged children test the hypothesis that engaging in explanation promotes inductive reasoning on the basis of shared causal properties as opposed to salient (but superficial) perceptual properties. In Experiments 1a and 1b, 3- to 5-year-old children prompted to explain during a causal learning task were more likely to override a tendency to generalize according to perceptual similarity and instead extend an internal feature to an object that shared a causal property. Experiment 2 replicated this effect of explanation in a case of label extension (i.e., categorization). Experiment 3 demonstrated that explanation improves memory for clusters of causally relevant (non-perceptual) features, but impairs memory for superficial (perceptual) features, providing evidence that effects of explanation are selective in scope and apply to memory as well as inference. In sum, our data support the proposal that engaging in explanation influences children’s reasoning by privileging inductively rich, causal properties.     

Independence and dependence in human causal reasoning

Causal graphical models (CGMs) are a popular formalism used to model human causal reasoning and learning. The key property of CGMs is the causal Markov condition, which stipulates patterns of independence and dependence among causally related variables. Five experiments found that while adult’s causal inferences exhibited aspects of veridical causal reasoning, they also exhibited a small but tenacious tendency to violate the Markov condition. They also failed to exhibit robust discounting in which the presence of one cause as an explanation of an effect makes the presence of another less likely. Instead, subjects often reasoned “associatively,” that is, assumed that the presence of one variable implied the presence of other, causally related variables, even those that were (according to the Markov condition) conditionally independent. This tendency was unaffected by manipulations (e.g., response deadlines) known to influence fast and intuitive reasoning processes, suggesting that an associative response to a causal reasoning question is sometimes the product of careful and deliberate thinking. That about 60% of the erroneous associative inferences were made by about a quarter of the subjects suggests the presence of substantial individual differences in this tendency. There was also evidence that inferences were influenced by subjects’ assumptions about factors that disable causal relations and their use of a conjunctive reasoning strategy. Theories that strive to provide high fidelity accounts of human causal reasoning will need to relax the independence constraints imposed by CGMs.     

The origins of probabilistic inference in human infants

Reasoning under uncertainty is the bread and butter of everyday life. Many areas of psychology, from cognitive, developmental, social, to clinical, are interested in how individuals make inferences and decisions with incomplete information. The ability to reason under uncertainty necessarily involves probability computations, be they exact calculations or estimations. What are the developmental origins of probabilistic reasoning? Recent work has begun to examine whether infants and toddlers can compute probabilities; however, previous experiments have confounded quantity and probability—in most cases young human learners could have relied on simple comparisons of absolute quantities, as opposed to proportions, to succeed in these tasks. We present four experiments providing evidence that infants younger than 12 months show sensitivity to probabilities based on proportions. Furthermore, infants use this sensitivity to make predictions and fulfill their own desires, providing the first demonstration that even preverbal learners use probabilistic information to navigate the world. These results provide strong evidence for a rich quantitative and statistical reasoning system in infants.