Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people

The question addressed in this study is whether experts are better calibrated than lay people. We investigated how well people are calibrated when they assess the probabilities of card combinations in the game of blackjack. Three groups of subjects were used: professional dealers, statistical experts, and control subjects. The results showed that experience and statistical expertise do not make people better calibrated in this task. It is argued that the concept of calibration is not wholly appropriate to describe the obtained deviations from the normatively correct responses. This is illustrated by a discriminant analysis performed on the signed deviation scores, which resulted in an almost perfect separation of the three groups, although they were overlapping with respect to calibration.     

The effects of situational performance constraints on intrinsic motivation and satisfaction: The role of perceived competence and self-determination

Situational performance constraints, task interest, and pay contingencies were manipulated in a laboratory study in order to investigate the cognitive mechanisms associated with the previously observed detrimental effects of constraints on affective task reactions. It was hypothesized that feelings of task competence and self-determination would account for both the direct and the interactive effects of constraints on motivation and satisfaction. The results of the study indicated that despite the fact that participants' performance was being constrained and they were aware of these constraints, the mere presence of the constraints alone failed to result in lower levels of satisfaction or motivation on a proofreading task. Post hoc analyses suggested that the constraints, in fact, led to negative affective task reactions when they also reduced participants' feelings of competence and self-determination. Interestingly, participants' generalized locus of control was associated with such effects. Internals tended to maintain stronger feelings of competence and self-determination than externals in the presence of constraints, thereby also maintaining greater motivation and satisfaction.     

The effects of feedback consistency and feedback favorability on self-perceived task competence and perceived feedback accuracy

The present study, employing a 2 × 2 true-experimental design and regression analyses assessed the main and interactive effects of feedback consistency (consistent vs inconsistent), and feedback favorability (acceptable vs superior), for feedback given at two time periods on measures of perceived feedback accuracy and self-perceived task competence. Among the study's findings were that (a) the perceived accuracy of feedback at the second period was a function of the favorability of feedback received at the first time period, (b) the self-perceived task competence levels of subjects were jointly determined by the favorability of feedback received at both time periods, and (c) the perceived accuracy of feedback was a function of its consistency. Organizational implications of the study's results are offered.     

On optimal smoothing and derivative estimation from noisy displacement data in biomechanics

Estimating derivatives from noisy displacement data is a notoriously ill-posed problem in signal processing and biomechanics. Following the work of Wood and Jennings (1978) and Hatze (1979, 1981), the present paper describes the use of optimally regularized, natural quintic splines for estimating smoothed positions, velocities, and accelerations from equidistantly sampled, noisy position measurements. It appears that the nature of the boundary conditions of the data is of some importance, since various algorithms used hitherto result in artefacts throughout the data if the true derivatives at the record ends differ significantly from zero. Natural quintic splines do not suffer from this disadvantage below the third derivative.The ill-posed character of movement analysis has some interesting implications for movement synthesis and optimization, similar to the indeterminacy of muscular co-contraction from merely external, biomechanical measurements.     

Individualized behavior therapy for alcoholics: a third year independent double-blind follow-up.

An independently conducted double-blind study providing third year follow-up data for 53 of 70 male alcoholics who served as subjects in an experiment evaluating “Individualized Behavior Therapy (IBT)” techniques is reported. In the original study, subjects were initially assigned to either a controlled drinking or non-drinking (abstinence) treatment goal, and were then randomly assigned to either an experimental group receiving IBT or a control group receiving conventional state hospital treatment oriented towards abstinence. Previously reported results showed that IBT subjects functioned significantly better than control subjects throughout the first year of follow-up. Second year follow-up results found that IBT subjects treated with a controlled drinking goal functioned significantly better than their respective control subjects on a variety of measures, including drinking behavior. Differences between IBT subjects treated with a non-drinking goal and their control subjects did not retain statistical significance during the second year of follow-up. The independently determined follow-up data showed that during the third post-treatment year, subjects in the experimental groups generally functioned better than their respective control subjects. Comparison of the controlled drinking experimental group with its control group showed the significantly better functioning of subjects in the experimental condition on a number of drinking and other life functioning measures. Comparison of the non-drinking groups indicated only one possible difference on the drinking related measures involving a trend for subjects in the experimental condition to abstain more than those in the non-drinker control group. On other life functioning measures, however, subjects in the non-drinking experimental condition showed consistent improvement over their respective control subjects. Both of the controlled drinking groups reported more controlled drinking days than the non-drinking groups throughout the third year follow-up period.     

THE BEHAVIOR OBSERVATION INSTRUMENT: A METHOD OF DIRECT OBSERVATION FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION1

The background and development of a multicategory direct observation system, the Behavior Observation Instrument (BOI), is described. This time-sampling procedure for recording the behavior of persons is demonstrated in several treatment settings and the results applied to issues of program evaluation. Elements that have prevented direct observation from being widely adopted, such as costs, manpower, and training requirements, are systematically analyzed. A basic psychometric analysis of the instrument is used to determine optimum frequency and duration of observation intervals as well as observer agreement. The results imply that direct observation methods, once assumed by some to belong to the special province of the single-subject design, can be used to assess the effects of programs on groups of psychiatric clients in an efficient and economic manner.     

Age changes in nonverbal decoding as a function of increasing amounts of information

A test of nonverbal decoding skill (the PONS test) was administered to 632 subjects of eight different age levels, ranging from third graders to adults (Ages 8–33 years). Females were more accurate than males, older subjects were more accurate than younger ones, and all samples tended to decode more successfully when more information was available. Three different analyses showed that the increase in accuracy with increasing amounts of information was more pronounced for the older than for the younger groups. This differential effectiveness in the utilization of available information was discussed in terms of processing capacity, effort, and strategies for sampling a diversity of cues.