A latent class distance association model for cross‐classified data with a categorical response variable

In this paper we propose a latent class distance association model for clustering in the predictor space of large contingency tables with a categorical response variable. The rows of such a table are characterized as profiles of a set of explanatory variables, while the columns represent a single outcome variable. In many cases such tables are sparse, with many zero entries, which makes traditional models problematic. By clustering the row profiles into a few specific classes and representing these together with the categories of the response variable in a low‐dimensional Euclidean space using a distance association model, a parsimonious prediction model can be obtained. A generalized EM algorithm is proposed to estimate the model parameters and the adjusted Bayesian information criterion statistic is employed to test the number of mixture components and the dimensionality of the representation. An empirical example highlighting the advantages of the new approach and comparing it with traditional approaches is presented.     

个人影响力在群体决策整合过程中的作用：对SDS理论的扩展

以往社会决策图式理论没有考虑决策群体中成员的地位、成员的价值取向和专长知识分布等决策者影响力因素对群体决策整合过程的影响。本文在考虑上述诸因素影响的前提下构建了决策者影响力函数,通过投资决策模拟实验,综合使用决策影响力函数和个体偏好分布来预测群体决策的结果。研究表明综合运用决策者影响力函数和修改后的社会决策图式理论比传统的理论能更准确和有效的预测群体决策。     

中小学生课外阅读时间及时间分配与阅读成绩的关系研究

采用问卷调查法对107名重点与非重点学校的小学、初中学生课外阅读时间、阅读时间分配进行了调查,并考察了它们与阅读成绩的关系。结果发现:(1)小学生与初中生课外平均每周阅读时间无显著差异,但其时间的分配有差异,小学生主要阅读文学类书籍,而初中生除了主要阅读文学类书籍外,增加了阅读娱乐类书籍的时间;(2)整体上看,中小学生课外阅读时间与阅读成绩存在显著相关,其中文学类书籍课外阅读时间与阅读成绩有显著正相关,娱乐类书籍课外阅读时间与重点学校学生的阅读成绩以及男生的阅读成绩有显著的负相关。     

An overview of Bayesian reasoning in the analysis of delay‐discounting data

Statistical inference (including interval estimation and model selection) is increasingly used in the analysis of behavioral data. As with many other fields, statistical approaches for these analyses traditionally use classical (i.e., frequentist) methods. Interpreting classical intervals and p‐values correctly can be burdensome and counterintuitive. By contrast, Bayesian methods treat data, parameters, and hypotheses as random quantities and use rules of conditional probability to produce direct probabilistic statements about models and parameters given observed study data. In this work, we reanalyze two data sets using Bayesian procedures. We precede the analyses with an overview of the Bayesian paradigm. The first study reanalyzes data from a recent study of controls, heavy smokers, and individuals with alcohol and/or cocaine substance use disorder, and focuses on Bayesian hypothesis testing for covariates and interval estimation for discounting rates among various substance use disorder profiles. The second example analyzes hypothetical environmental delay‐discounting data. This example focuses on using historical data to establish prior distributions for parameters while allowing subjective expert opinion to govern the prior distribution on model preference. We review the subjective nature of specifying Bayesian prior distributions but also review established methods to standardize the generation of priors and remove subjective influence while still taking advantage of the interpretive advantages of Bayesian analyses. We present the Bayesian approach as an alternative paradigm for statistical inference and discuss its strengths and weaknesses.     

群体讨论过程中信息策略的变化

启发式是人类决策的重要特征,然而对于群体分布式加工条件下的启发式研究却是一个困难的任务。本研究利用多特征多选择决策任务与过程跟踪技术,对群体讨论条件下的启发式决策特点进行研究。结果发现,在群体讨论情景下,决策者的信息呈现策略要更加完全,但决策者的信息搜索负荷并没有因此而增加,群体的各成员之间形成了信息策略上的分布式加工,所以在群体工作情景中的表现出相互依赖性与内隐加工机制。     

多目标追踪的神经机制

多目标追踪任务是研究动态场景中视觉注意加工机制常用的范式。自1998年开始对多目标追踪神经机制的影像学研究以来, 研究者采用ERP和fMRI等技术对多目标注意追踪所涉及的神经电生理活动和脑功能区激活方面开展了大量研究。ERP研究发现, 追踪过程持续的ERP脑电成分如N2pc、CDA的波幅与注意追踪负荷有关, 并且出现在目标与非目标上的探测刺激诱发的脑电成分如N1、P1波幅的差异可反映注意资源的分配, 具体为目标在追踪过程中得到了激活, 而非目标受到了抑制。fMRI研究比较一致地发现了顶叶(包括前顶内沟、后顶内沟、顶上小叶)、背外侧额叶皮层等在注意追踪中的强烈激活。其中顶内沟主要与注意负荷有关, 顶内沟的活动水平直接决定了观察者注意追踪的行为表现。而顶上小叶可能更多的负责注意转移。背外侧额叶皮层可能负责追踪时的感觉运动预测过程。     

A Latent Block Distance-Association Model for Profile by Profile Cross-Classified Categorical Data

Abstract

Distance association models constitute a useful tool for the analysis and graphical representation of cross-classified data in which distances between points inversely describe the association between two categorical variables. When the number of cells is large and the data counts result in sparse tables, the combination of clustering and representation reduces the number of parameters to be estimated and facilitates interpretation. In this article, a latent block distance-association model is proposed to apply block clustering to the outcomes of two categorical variables while the cluster centers are represented in a low dimensional space in terms of a distance-association model. This model is particularly useful for contingency tables in which both the rows and the columns are characterized as profiles of sets of response variables. The parameters are estimated under a Poisson sampling scheme using a generalized EM algorithm. The performance of the model is tested in a Monte Carlo experiment, and an empirical data set is analyzed to illustrate the model.     

Do 5- and 6-Year-Old Children Attempt to Appear Fair to Others?

Abstract

Children come to prefer fair distributions at the age of 5 to 6?years. But do they actually want to be fair, or do they want to appear fair to others? In three conditions, an experimenter initially distributed chocolates to 5-/6-year-old participants and partners they were paired with. Participants always possessed, through some means, two chocolates when the experimenter returned after a brief absence, and they had to decide whether to take an extra one for themselves. To measure the extent to which children were concerned with actually being fair versus appearing fair, two conditions were created in which children were led to believe that the experimenter did not know that the distributions had become equal. In the windfall condition, a confederate gave one additional chocolate to the participant, and in the partner condition, the partner transferred one chocolate to the participant. Compared to the control condition, participants who passed the false belief task in both of these conditions tried to appear fair in their distribution. Thus 5-/6-year-old children seem to prefer appearing fair to others regardless of the situation.     

Aggregate temperament scores from multiple countries: Associations with aggregate personality traits,cultural dimensions,and allelic frequency

Aggregate temperament scores were calculated across 17 studies for 18 countries. These scores were analyzed in relation to aggregate personality scores, cultural orientation, and allelic distribution reported in prior studies. Cross-culture patterns were largely consistent with those previously reported for personality: countries high on Surgency (SUR) were high on Extraversion, high Negative Affectivity (NEG) was consistent with Neuroticism, and Regulatory Capacity (RC) with Agreeableness. Regarding cultural orientation, aggregate SUR was associated with low Power Distance and Long-Term Orientation; NEG with low Individualism and high Masculinity and Uncertainty Avoidance; and RC with low Power Distance and Masculinity. Higher proportion of MAOA-uVNTR low expression alleles was associated with low SUR and low RC; and A118G G-form allele proportion with low RC.