The effects of statistical training on choice heuristics in choice under uncertainty

Kahneman and Tversky (1984) proposed that decision makers perceive choice uncertainty in two ways: (1) as a distribution of possible outcomes or (2) as a single uncertain outcome. Using statistical training as a factor that influences these perceptions, and thus the type of decision approach individuals use, we found that individuals with different levels of experience displayed differences in the decisions they made and in the choice heuristics used to make those decisions. Statistically naive individuals were more likely to prefer loss-minimizing alternatives, use a more non-compensatory heuristic, and spend more time on loss-related information than their statistically experienced counterparts. When a distributional cue, indicating the distributional nature of choice outcomes, was presented to both experience groups, the naive group was found to use a decision approach similar to the experienced group and to make similar decisions. The results are discussed in terms of the need to include factors that alter individuals' approaches to uncertainty in future behavioral models of uncertain choice.     

Relationships between perfectionism,self-report impulsivity measures and delay discounting

Perfectionism and impulsivity are multidimensional constructs. While different perfectionism dimensions are exclusively measured through self-reports, different impulsivity dimensions can be measured through self-report or behaviour via preferences for different rewards. This study explored differential associations between perfectionism and impulsivity based on both dimension and measurement modality (self-report/behavioural). We then examined whether adaptive or maladaptive perfectionism would be differentially associated with impulsivity. Two-hundred and six students completed two perfectionism and three impulsivity measures (two self-report; one behavioural). Two self-report impulsivity measures were associated with specific perfectionism dimensions, whereas the behavioural measure was not associated with perfectionism. Maladaptive perfectionism was associated with decreasing impulsivity, whereas adaptive perfectionism was associated with increasing impulsivity. Perfectionism related to impulsivity differently depending on how each construct was measured.     

Regression II. Development through regression

As shown in our previous paper (‘Regression I. Experimental approaches to regression’, JAP, 65, 2, 345-65), the common mechanism of regression can be described as reversible dedifferentiation, which is understood as a relative increase of the proportion of low-differentiated (older) systems in actualized experience. Experimental data show that regression following disease (chronic tension headache) is followed by adaptation and an increase in system differentiation in that experience domain which contains systems responsible for that adaptation. The results of mathematical modelling support the idea that reversible dedifferentiation can be one of the mechanisms for increasing the effectiveness of adaptation through learning. Reversible dedifferentiation, which is phenomenologically described as regression, is a general mechanism for restructuring the organism-environment interactions in situations where behaviours that were effective in the past become ineffective. Reversible dedifferentiation has evolved as a component of adaptation when new behaviours are formed and large-scale modifications in the existing behaviours are required in the face of changes in the external and/or internal environment. Thus, the authors believe that this article provides evidence for Jung’s view that regression is not only a ‘return’ to past forms of thinking, affects and behaviour, but that regressive processes provide a significant impetus for psychological growth and development.     

Do behavioral measures of self-control assess construct-level variance?

A wide range of measures have been used to assess self-control including executive function tasks, delay of gratification tasks, and persistence and willpower tasks. The current study sought to examine the convergent and predictive validity of these measures, provide theoretical backing for why we might or might not expect high correlations between different indicators of the construct, and question whether such measures are assessing construct-level variance. The results largely replicated prior research, with the majority of correlations being small in magnitude and non-significant. Possible interpretations include indicators assessing distinct and unrelated subdomains of self-control, the inappropriate use of measures that maximize within person variance, indicators being plagued by large sources of error variance, or some combination of these.     

How representations of number and numeracy predict decision paradoxes: A fuzzy-trace theory approach

Higher numeracy has been associated with decision biases in some numerical judgment-and-decision problems. According to fuzzy-trace theory, understanding such paradoxes involves broadening the concept of numeracy to include processing the gist of numbers—their categorical and ordinal relations—in addition to objective (verbatim) knowledge about numbers. We assess multiple representations of gist, as well as numeracy, and use them to better understand and predict systematic paradoxes in judgment and decision-making. In two samples (Ns = 978 and 957), we assessed categorical (some vs. none) and ordinal gist representations of numbers (higher vs. lower, as in relative magnitude judgment, estimation, approximation, and simple ratio comparison), objective numeracy, and a nonverbal, nonnumeric measure of fluid intelligence in predicting: (a) decision preferences exhibiting the Allais paradox and (b) attractiveness ratings of bets with and without a small loss in which the loss bet is rated higher than the objectively superior no-loss bet. Categorical and ordinal gist tasks predicted unique variance in paradoxical decisions and judgments, beyond objective numeracy and intelligence. Whereas objective numeracy predicted choosing or rating according to literal numerical superiority, appreciating the categorical and ordinal gist of numbers was pivotal in predicting paradoxes. These results bring important paradoxes under the same explanatory umbrella, which assumes three types of representations of numbers—categorical gist, ordinal gist, and objective (verbatim)—that vary in their strength across individuals.     

Adding versus averaging: Evaluability theory applied to job choice decisions

While the unique roles of individual job attributes (e.g., salary and benefits) in job and organizational attraction have received extensive research attention, research examining the mechanisms through which an overall evaluation of a job option is made by combining evaluations of individual attributes is scarce. The current study examined the process through which job choice decisions are made under three conditions: when evaluating a single job offer, when comparing two job offers, and when evaluating more than two job offers. In Study 1, it was found that when a single job offer is evaluated, the average of perceived values of attributes in an offer (e.g., the perceived attractiveness of a salary) drives the choice, whereas the difference between jobs is what matters when two jobs are evaluated simultaneously, potentially leading to a preference reversal between conditions when the same two jobs are evaluated. In Study 2, it was found that average values of attributes across options (e.g., average salary in all job offers received) influence job choice when more than two job offers are evaluated simultaneously. These findings indicate that in all three conditions, job choice decisions are influenced by the evaluability of the choice set, which becomes low when a single job offer is evaluated without any context, or when more than two job offers are evaluated simultaneously, and becomes high when two jobs are compared with each other. When evaluability is low, candidates resort to averaging as the decision rule, whereas adding is used when evaluability is high.     

跨期选择中的年龄差异及其机制

随着老龄化形势日益严峻, 老年人的跨期选择受到越来越多学者的关注。目前关于跨期选择的年老化研究尚存分歧:有研究发现老年人比年轻人更偏好未来获得更大收益; 也有研究发现老年人的选择偏好和年轻人一样, 甚至比年轻人更偏好近期收益。从时间表征和结果价值表征两个维度上的加工过程去分析其对老年人跨期选择的影响, 并进一步阐述认知、动机和情绪因素对两个维度加工过程的影响, 这对于理解当前老年人跨期选择领域研究的分歧有重要科学意义。     

Choice in a variable environment: effects of blackout duration and extinction between components

Pigeons were trained in a procedure in which sessions included seven four- or 10-reinforcer components, each providing a different reinforcer ratio that ranged from 27:1 to 1:27. The components were arranged in random order, and no signals differentiated the component reinforcer ratios. Each condition lasted 50 sessions, and the data from the last 35 sessions were analyzed. Previous results using 10-s blackouts between components showed some carryover of preference from one component to the next, and this effect was investigated in Experiment 1 by varying blackout duration from 1 s to 120 s. The amount of carryover decreased monotonically as the blackout duration was lengthened. Preference also decreased between reinforcers within components, suggesting that preference change during blackout might follow the same function as preference change between reinforcers. Experiment 2 was designed to measure preference change between components more directly and to relate this to preference change during blackout. In two conditions a 60-s blackout occurred between components, and in two other conditions a 60-s period of unsignaled extinction occurred between components. Preference during the extinction period progressively fell toward indifference, and the level of preference following extinction was much the same as that following blackout. Although these results are consistent with Davison and Baum's (2000) theory of the effects of reinforcers on local preference, other findings suggest that theory is incomplete: After a sequence of reinforcers from one alternative, some residual preference remained after 60 s of extinction or blackout, indicating the possibility of an additional longer term accumulation of reinforcer effects than originally suggested.     

GROUP FORAGING SENSITIVITY TO PREDICTABLE AND UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN FOOD DISTRIBUTION: PAST EXPERIENCE OR PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES?

The ideal free distribution theory (Fretwell & Lucas, 1970) predicts that the ratio of foragers at two patches will equal the ratio of food resources obtained at the two patches. The theory assumes that foragers have "perfect knowledge" of patch profitability and that patch choice maximizes fitness. How foragers assess patch profitability has been debated extensively. One assessment strategy may be the use of past experience with a patch. Under stable environmental conditions, this strategy enhances fitness. However, in a highly unpredictable environment, past experience may provide inaccurate information about current conditions. Thus, in a nonstable environment, a strategy that allows rapid adjustment to present circumstances may be more beneficial. Evidence for this type of strategy has been found in individual choice. In the present experiments, a flock of pigeons foraged at two patches for food items and demonstrated results similar to those found in individual choice. Experiment 1 utilized predictable and unpredictable sequences of resource ratios presented across days or within a single session. Current foraging decisions depended on past experience, but that dependence diminished when the current foraging environment became more unpredictable. Experiment 2 repeated Experiment I with a different flock of pigeons under more controlled circumstances in an indoor coop and produced similar results.     

Further evaluation of low-ranked items in stimulus-choice preference assessments

The generality of the findings reported by DeLeon, Iwata, and Roscoe (1997) was examined by conducting two stimulus-choice preference assessments, the second of which evaluated low-ranked items from the initial assessment. Results for the 2 participants suggested that supplementary assessments of low-ranked items may be useful for identifying a wider variety of reinforcing stimuli.