Towards a “Sophisticated” Model of Belief Dynamics. Part I: The General Framework

It is well-known that classical models of belief are not realistic representations of human doxastic capacity; equally, models of actions involving beliefs, such as decisions based on beliefs, or changes of beliefs, suffer from a similar inaccuracies. In this paper, a general framework is presented which permits a more realistic modelling both of instantaneous states of belief, and of the operations involving them. This framework is motivated by some of the inadequacies of existing models, which it overcomes, whilst retaining technical rigour in so far as it relies on known, natural logical and mathematical notions. The companion paper (Towards a “sophisticated” model of belief dynamics. Part II) contains an application of this framework to the particular case of belief revision. Presented by Hannes Leitgeb     

Representation over time: the effects of temporal distance on similarity

Similarity is central in human cognition, playing a role in a wide range of cognitive processes. In three studies, we demonstrate that subjective similarity may change as a function of temporal distance, with some events seeming more similar when considered in the near future, while others increase in similarity as temporal distance increases. Given the ubiquity of inter-temporal thought, and the fundamental role of similarity, these results have important implications for cognition in general.     

Probabilistic models of set-dependent and attribute-level best-worst choice

We characterize a class of probabilistic choice models where the choice probabilities depend on two scales, one with a value for each available option and the other with a value for the set of available options. Then, we develop similar results for a task in which a person is presented with a profile of attributes, each at a pre-specified level, and chooses the best or the best and the worst of those attribute-levels. The latter design is an important variant on previous designs using best-worst choice to elicit preference information, and there is various evidence that it yields reliable interpretable data. Nonetheless, the data from a single such task cannot yield separate measures of the “importance” of an attribute and the “utility” of an attribute-level. We discuss various empirical designs, involving more than one task of the above general type, that may allow such separation of importance and utility.     

Bayesian Hierarchical Classes Analysis

Hierarchical classes models are models for N-way N-mode data that represent the association among the N modes and simultaneously yield, for each mode, a hierarchical classification of its elements. In this paper we present a stochastic extension of the hierarchical classes model for two-way two-mode binary data. In line with the original model, the new probabilistic extension still represents both the association among the two modes and the hierarchical classifications. A fully Bayesian method for fitting the new model is presented and evaluated in a simulation study. Furthermore, we propose tools for model selection and model checking based on Bayes factors and posterior predictive checks. We illustrate the advantages of the new approach with applications in the domain of the psychology of choice and psychiatric diagnosis. Iwin Leenen is now at the Instituto Mexicano de Investigación de Familia y Población (IMIFAP), Mexico. The research reported in this paper was partially supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (programa Ramón y Cajal) and by the Research Council of K.U.Leuven (PDM/99/037, GOA/2000/02, and GOA/2005/04). The authors are grateful to Johannes Berkhof for fruitful discussions.     

Computerised cognitive‐behaviour therapy (cCBT) and older people: A pilot study to determine factors that influence willingness to engage with cCBT

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore whether older people with depression and/or anxiety were potentially willing to engage with computerised cognitive‐behaviour therapy (cCBT). Method: A short questionnaire was sent to 60 service users aged 65+ who were identified as having anxiety and/or depression. Results: There was a 63.3% response rate for the questionnaire. Almost half of the respondents said they would be interested in using cCBT, and would be willing to learn the necessary computer skills. Conclusions: This pilot study suggests that older people with anxiety and/or depression may be willing to engage with cCBT. However, a number of important factors are highlighted that would need to be considered in deciding whether to develop access to cCBT for older people.     

IMAGINATION'S GRIP ON SCIENCE

Abstract: In part because “imagination” is a slippery notion, its exact role in the production of scientific knowledge remains unclear. There is, however, one often explicit and deliberate use of imagination by scientists that can be (and has been) studied intensively by epistemologists and historians of science: thought experiments. The main goal of this article is to document the varieties of thought experimentation, not so much in terms of the different sciences in which they occur but rather in terms of the different functions they fulfil. I argue that thought experimentation (and hence imagination) plays a role not only in theory choice but in singular causal analysis and scientific discovery as well. I pinpoint, moreover, some of the rules governing the use of thought experiments in theory choice and in singular causal analysis, that is, some of the criteria they should meet in order to fulfil those functions successfully.     

Facets of the linear ordering polytope: A unification for the fence family through weighted graphs

The binary choice polytope appeared in the investigation of the binary choice problem formulated by Guilbaud and Block and Marschak. It is nowadays known to be the same as the linear ordering polytope from operations research (as studied by Grötschel, Jünger and Reinelt).The central problem is to find facet-defining linear inequalities for the polytope. Fence inequalities constitute a prominent class of such inequalities (Cohen and Falmagne; Grötschel, Jünger and Reinelt). Two different generalizations exist for this class: the reinforced fence inequalities of Leung and Lee, and independently Suck, and the stability-critical fence inequalities of Koppen. Together with the fence inequalities, these inequalities form the fence family. Building on previous work on the biorder polytope by Christophe, Doignon and Fiorini, we provide a new class of inequalities which unifies all inequalities from the fence family. The proof is based on a projection of polytopes. The new class of facet-defining inequalities is related to a specific class of weighted graphs, whose definition relies on a curious extension of the stability number. We investigate this class of weighted graphs which generalize the stability-critical graphs.     

QUANTUM INTERACTIVE DUALISM: AN ALTERNATIVE TO MATERIALISM

Abstract. René Descartes proposed an interactive dualism that posits an interaction between the mind of a human being and some of the matter in his or her brain. However, the classical physical theories that reigned during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries are based exclusively on the material/physical part of Descartes' ontology, and they purport to give, in principle, a completely deterministic account of the physically described properties of nature, expressed exclusively in terms of these physically described properties themselves. Orthodox contemporary physical theory violates this condition in two separate ways. First, it injects random elements into the dynamics. Second, it requires psychophysical events, called Process 1 interventions by John von Neumann. Neither the content nor the timing of these events is determined, even statistically, by any known law. Orthodox quantum mechanics considers these events to be instigated by choices made by conscious agents. This quantum conception of the mind‐brain connection allows many psychological and neuropsychological findings associated with the apparent physical effectiveness of our conscious volitional efforts to be explained in a causal and practically useful way. According to this quantum approach, conscious human beings are invested with degrees of freedom denied to the mechanistic automatons to which classical physics reduced us.     

外科临床决策的核心在精于选择

造就名医是个系统工程,理论和实践统一才有功底。为病人提供优质服务,要求医生有能力对病情进行综合分析思考、辨认、评估,对诊断、治疗进行鉴别,为选择科学的临床决策提供依据。理论与临床实践高水平的结合,难能可贵的是忌粗取精、忌浅求深、忌表识里,从临床汇集资料来思考、分析,最终做出选择,再到临床上去验证,从而得出正确的诊断和处理方案。善于选择和精于选择,是临床决策的核心,是临床医生综合素质走向成熟的产物,是一代名医成长的必然之路。     

Resurgence Following Higher or Lower Quality Alternative Reinforcement

Resurgence is a temporary increase in a previously suppressed target behavior following a worsening in reinforcement conditions. Previous studies have examined how higher rates or magnitudes of alternative reinforcement affect suppression of the target behavior and subsequent resurgence. However, there has been no investigation of the effects of higher versus lower qualities of alternative reinforcement on resurgence. Using a three-phase resurgence preparation with rats, the present experiments examined the effects of an alternative reinforcer that was of higher (Experiment 1) or lower (Experiment 2) quality than the reinforcer that had previously maintained the target behavior. The results of both experiments showed greater reductions in target behavior with a higher quality alternative reinforcer and larger increases in target responding when a higher quality alternative reinforcer was removed. Along with prior findings with higher rates and magnitudes of alternative reinforcement, these findings suggest that variations in reinforcer dimensions that increase the efficacy of alternative reinforcement also tend to increase resurgence when alternative reinforcement is removed. The results are discussed in terms of the resurgence as choice in context model and in terms of potential clinical implications.