Are Newcomb problems really decisions?

Richard Jeffrey long held that decision theory should be formulated without recourse to explicitly causal notions. Newcomb problems stand out as putative counterexamples to this ‘evidential’ decision theory. Jeffrey initially sought to defuse Newcomb problems via recourse to the doctrine of ratificationism, but later came to see this as problematic. We will see that Jeffrey’s worries about ratificationism were not compelling, but that valid ratificationist arguments implicitly presuppose causal decision theory. In later work, Jeffrey argued that Newcomb problems are not decisions at all because agents who face them possess so much evidence about correlations between their actions and states of the world that they are unable to regard their deliberate choices as causes of outcomes, and so cannot see themselves as making free choices. Jeffrey’s reasoning goes wrong because it fails to recognize that an agent’s beliefs about her immediately available acts are so closely tied to the immediate causes of these actions that she can create evidence that outweighs any antecedent correlations between acts and states. Once we recognize that deliberating agents are free to believe what they want about their own actions, it will be clear that Newcomb problems are indeed counterexamples to evidential decision theory.     

Some Closure Properties of Finite Definitions

There is no known syntactic characterization of the class of finite definitions in terms of a set of basic definitions and a set of basic operators under which the class is closed. Furthermore, it is known that the basic propositional operators do not preserve finiteness. In this paper I survey these problems and explore operators that do preserve finiteness. I also show that every definition that uses only unary predicate symbols and equality is bound to be finite.     

Are There Any Rules?

The ``model of rules' that Ronald Dworkin attacks is an absurdmodel of law, if rules are taken to be standards that have nounspecified counterinstances, and whose application isalways uncontroversial. Dworkin gives good reason to thinkthat there are no such standards or virtually none in (e.g.)English law. But the model of rules is not misconceived, asDworkin claims. Rather, it needs a better understanding of the idea of a rule. I argue that the view that the law of a community is a system of rules needs to meet an importantchallenge that Dworkin has raised for jurisprudence: to accountfor the fact that legal rights and duties are frequentlycontroversial. I give an account of social rules thatexplains why controversy over their application in particularcases is common, and can be deep. So controversy gives noreason to reject the model of rules.     

论公共行政管理的伦理基础——一个公共伦理分析视角

当代中国正处在以城市化为主导的社会转型的关键时期,社会出现了种种不协调,需要相应价值尺度来引导。行政管理本身不是最终目的,它是传达人民的需求与愿望,并保证这些需求和愿望能够通过国家控制反映出来。长期以来,行政管理学界高扬效率、忽视伦理的主题定位,在一定程度上阻碍了行政管理学研究向纵深领域的发展。公共行政管理从产生时起就与某种伦理价值观相联系;公共行政管理的主要伦理规范有公益至上、有害不为、慎用权力、社会责任、平等竞争、增进信任。这些规范为公共行政管理奠定了伦理基础。     

基于心理痛苦理论与决策树的中学生心理危机分类模型

中学生心理危机分类模型属于复杂数据模型，本文采用分类树算法探究家庭、校园、同伴和个体因素在中学生心理危机分类中的相对重要性差异，尤其是心理痛苦三因素对致死性危机的独特作用。结果显示：（1）中学生自杀危机和非致死性危机分类树的分类效果良好，自伤危机分类树的分类效果欠佳；（2）中学生自杀危机中，痛苦逃避最为重要，痛苦唤醒次之，之后为痛苦体验和学校满意度；（3）中学生自伤危机中，同伴问题行为最为重要，之后为父母陪伴和家庭监督；（4）中学生非致死性危机中，歧视知觉最为重要，之后为痛苦唤醒和同伴支持。提示中学生不同心理危机的促发机制存在差异，心理痛苦三因素模型在自杀分类模型中作用显著，但并非自伤危机和非致死性危机的关键变量。     

Biased judgments of the effects of speed change on travel time,fuel consumption and braking: Individual differences in the use of simplifying rules producing the same biases

The main purpose of this study was to identify different cognitive rules that lead to a particular judgment bias. To fulfill this purpose, a new method Spectral analysis was introduced and applied. Participants judged time saved by driving faster, fuel saved by replacing a car and braking capacity at different speeds. These problems invite the time saving bias (e.g., time saved from speed increases at higher speeds overestimated), the miles per gallon, MPG illusion (misjudgment of fuel saved by replacing a car) and the braking capacity bias (overestimation of braking capacity after speed increase). The average results replicated the biases. Spectral analysis of individual participants and problems showed that a speed difference rule explained about half of the time saving judgments and about three fourth of the MPG judgments. A difference between speeds rule described about one third of the biased braking judgments and a ratio/proportion rule about one fifth of the time saving and MPG judgments. All rules give biased judgments in all three domains. The paper ends with a discussion of hierarchies of cognitive rules, applications of the results, and how to mitigate or avoid the biases and the risks associated with the biases.     

Thinking about complex decisions: How sleep and time-of-day influence complex choices

In this study, we systematically manipulate a person’s state of sleep; Sleep-deprived and Well-rested along with Matching or Mismatching the decision time-of-day to their circadian preferred time-of-day. We assessed how these conditions influenced performance on an incentivized complex decision task. In the overall analysis of these variables no differences emerged. However, a comparison of the more cognitively depleting Sleep-deprivation/Circadian-mismatch condition to the cognitively enhancing Well-rested/Circadian-match condition showed improved performance in the Well-rested/Circadian matched group for one complex decision task but not for the other. These findings build upon the existing literature on sleep and circadian rhythm effects while uniquely observing the combined effects of these variables on complex decision making.     

Rightly crossing the Rubicon: Evaluating goal self-concordance prior to selection helps people choose more intrinsic goals

We studied how people “cross the Rubicon” when making personal goal selections. In Studies 1 and 2 participants rated the self-concordance of four candidate goals, two with intrinsic and two with extrinsic content, before selecting two goals to actually pursue. Intrinsic goal content predicted higher self-concordance, as did matching between goal content and participant values and motives. Self-concordance in turn explained participants’ actual goal-selections. In longitudinal Study 2, intrinsic goal selection predicted increased well-being. In experimental Study 3, participants randomly assigned to rate candidate goals prior to selection made more intrinsic selections on average, compared to those not afforded this opportunity. We conclude that considering one’s motivations for various candidate goals prior to selecting among them can improve one’s goal choices.     

Visualization,pattern recognition,and forward search: effects of playing speed and sight of the position on grandmaster chess errors

A new approach examined two aspects of chess skill, long a popular topic in cognitive science. A powerful computer‐chess program calculated the number and magnitude of blunders made by the same 23 grandmasters in hundreds of serious games of slow (“classical”) chess, regular “rapid” chess, and rapid “blindfold” chess, in which opponents transmit moves without ever seeing the actual position. Rapid chess led to substantially more and larger blunders than classical chess. Perhaps more surprisingly, the frequency and magnitude of blunders did not differ in rapid versus blindfold play, despite the additional memory and visualization load imposed by the latter. We discuss the involvement of various cognitive processes in human problem‐solving and expertise, especially with respect to chess. Prior opposing views about the basis of general chess skill have emphasized the dominance of either (a) swift pattern recognition or (b) analyzing ahead, but both seem important and the controversy appears currently unresolvable and perhaps fruitless.     

Valuational semantics of rule derivability

If a certain semantic relation (which we call local consequence) is allowed to guide expectations about which rules are derivable from other rules, these expectations will not always be fulfilled, as we illustrate. An alternative semantic criterion (based on a relation we call global consequence), suggested by work of J.W. Garson, turns out to provide a much better — indeed a perfectly accurate — guide to derivability.